                      ˿µϣ20050228գ

05.02.27ûи
05.02.28, ӡǷ뾴ηȻ֮
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05.02.28, ԡۿ
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05.02.28, й걨½оԺԺʿӿ
05.02.28, ϷܿΪ

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ܶ˶֪йĻƷǳϾԹڿ˷Ѵ»
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ҵǿѧҵܵڽҵ

ʵҲ֪AŮʿΪġηȻʿһ;ܾѧ
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󣬱תǡ󰮴ˡѧң˭
ȥĶĵһѩء

2005.2.28

(XYS20050228)

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ֱˡ桱

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ӵԭĺͺ˵ú,㻷ͻ,ʹ
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ȻǼʼǣXX˭ҲԼĻ
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ǼԼʵظһǧܱã
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ѧѧͷ

档
ֱˣ2005-02-07

ӿضԻŷ˸⣺ѵ㻷ʹ壿
200527գȻ󣬽ŰԾηȻ̬̬
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֪ˣץסڽ̴ʻ¡ͼѻ
ϡš͡αѧñӡٺ٣ϹҵĹԱ
ڽ̴ʻӻƩ磬ʲͳڲᶨ
ʱ򣬾˵ˣЩϵ۵顣ѵϹ͸
šαѧˣ˵ˣ˼̹ˡ񡱵ĴʻأƩ磬
˵ ˭ҪǰԼΪ֪ʶĲй٣ͻᱻЦ
𡣡ûɣǲҲҪ˼̹ϸšα
ѧñӣǿЦúܡúܡ

أʵ簮˼̹˵ͼԼΪ֪ʶ
Ĳй٣ȴ֪ԼûǱ¡ţɡ˵αѧָ
ѷǿѧĶ˵ǿѧһ֤˵ǿѧʶ
αѧ֮ӡϹ˵αѧ pseudoscienceǰ
׺pseudounreal棩˼桱ԡαѧѧеġ
ơ쳣״̬͡αװѧαѧڿѧα
Ҫѧʵѧ۽ѧڽ޹ء

Ʃ磬ŷ˵Ƭʾǳǣ˵Ǻ۷
ɣǳǻǺ۹۲ǷɿþָĴ˵Ļ
оˡαѧеġαWhat our initial hasty analysis 
fell victim to is actually a pseudoscopic illusion caused by 
pseudoscopicαѧӾ۲죩ʹˡαѧеġα
pseudoͬһαѧѧǿѧѧ⣬ڽ
ѧ޹صġ

һЩͼԼΪѧ֪ʶйٵġٶʿǣ۸ı⣬
αѧŪڽ̺͵жѧĶ˭ɶ˳ۣ͸һ
ⲻԲͬ⣬ĳָһαѧñӡ

Ϊ˱ԼǸ֪ʶй٣ĳֹһεشԼ˵ҵרҵ֪ʶ
Ρٺ٣˵רҵӸûרҵ֪ʶԼı
ѧҲǸ壬ˮƽ֮˿ЦáƩ磬ѧˣ͸
֪򡱶Ի򵰰׳ιҪ塣Ӱ⻰Ī
ʲôС򵰰׳ι̡ںӡٻ֮Դʲô
壿أĳиʲôʿͷΣȴġաԲѵ
˵򡱾ûҲԡġʿˮƽ
ЦãҵˣʷӣԳǡпڽԱϢѧ
ѧҡӰҴδԳƹҲû˳ƺҡʣHMM
ģͣô÷HMMϢѧĻ֪ʶо֮һ
ѧƾѧˡλпڽԱĿѧҡĳʿȴ
ʲôʱôʹʲôشҵʦ𣿡У
ѧ˵Ӣĵѧ֪face-to-face˼ǡ桱ɷĳأȴ
Լνշ롱˵ǡ˵ӣƪ
ƼС˵ıרҵ֪ʶˮƽҲ˿Ц
ãӰѻƪķ̰£ѹֻõѧĻ˵
ͣͬһˡ

ܷɣ˭ڷרҵۺͷȻ
áѧαѧĹӴˡضζ
ǾͲĽۣĸʽĿֲΪȺ̬ˡ
ԷǵͺХѣһЩѧԾηȻ̬̬ǲ
йߺͷɣҲ绷Ҫơ
⣬һʼšѧ͡αѧĹӴˣǲǴ
ĹڴƺѧġǰӾôӷ˼
ءĻ̬ŴĸУ췴ᣬ
ôֶβпضԴͬºͬСڣͬĸֶΣڸ
ȥҲͼŴѧ͡αѧñӡ
ϴĸˣֶøӺʹñӵҲý
ˡ

˼̹˵ã˭ҪǰԼΪ֪ʶĲй٣
ͻᱻЦ𡣡ХѷPBS̨
Ҫý壬ѹԱͿƼʿϹԱͬ˵
ƼԽԽԶԳԽȻˣȫҪиľηȻ
̬ʶܻԵȻ[*] ЩΪ֪ʶ
ĲйٵˣôȥϹһѧ
͡αѧñӰ

[*] õӢĵġaweӢʵǣAWEa feeling 
of deep wonder and respect for overpowering grandeur.˼ǣη
ر޴е桢̾𾴡һҲûʲôѧ
αѧ˼Ҳûѧڽ˼˼û
Ūסηɶ˼ͻѧĴӺʹñˡ### 

(XYS20050228)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

ʿĵơˮ绹ɫԴ𣿡

Ԫ

    ϼǩŭӣҲֽۣ֧ӵ
óϳֵɺʵݣԽȴ˵ʲôֻһζķ
ԡ֯ġηȻУҪ߿һЩϡ
ܿյE-mailסһΪרڹһ
֯йŭˮ翪֤ϵķԣ̼԰־ԸߣԼ7
֣һǡˮ绹ɫԴ𣿡Լ4ǧ֣ǰһ׵ľ
ѡࡣ⣬ϲ鵽һƪձ¡ˮǲǡ̵硱
http://www.gmw.cn/01gmrb/2004-06/11/content_41962.htm
߸ԭʼдɵʽıڲԻȨʿ壬
ǿΪЩϾǴ˴η˶ۻ

    ϸĶЩף޸ݻԴݡЦѥɦ
ĳԾȻֽϡԿ˶ۻ¥ϲϡɳ
̲ϵķӡĿڶԷӵۻɺͷ˼ָеĲ
ʵ֮ʺ©Դٽˮ۵Ľһо7ֵ
ƪ̫ʡԣֻ侫ⲿֵ4ǧ֣¼ơˮġ͹
ձ£¼ơġĺΪĶ

һˮǲɫԴ

    ˮȣ䡰ɫڲŷк塣Ҫˮġɫ
ؼ֤ˮҲŷк壬ԡˮۡ߶һо


    ˮ˵йѧԺ֣оԱ˵ʱգĴˮɫ
Դ۵ӡϸһ룬ͻˮԻƻȻΪ£
ˮȻеһܴƾǼŷţʵ
ȫˡרǶ԰һˮĿ˾İΪֲ
ĸúͼˮˮܡ̼ͬȹģĻĿ

    Ҳ˵ݡȦίԱίԱТԽܣν࡯
͡ɫҪǶȼú͵Ļԡȼúų̼
壬ѾΪ֪ˮͬҲ⡣ˮվһо
֮ûҲųĶ̼ͼ壬
ȴˮŷͬ糧ߡӼǶȽȾ
ͨʩõٺˮȾ

    źǣַ֤ˮۡȫͽ͵ġ
һƪ£ơԭʼɭֲǵ֮ΡģɭȻ
ն̼ĹܣԭʼɭУȥľ΢
⣬ղﻹǶ̼֣ԭʼɭֶԼٵ̼
޳ס۵ȷʵиɻΪǻȻ
ɡֻҪԭʼɭֵײûгú㣬۾ͲЩ
صײ̿Щ˵Լٶ̼г׵ġ
ȻҲΪɭֲɫġϾľִǼٶ̼
Ľ

    Ϳ֪ˮۡ˵ԭʼɭֲɫġһ
ơˮ۲ٶ̼ͼ飬ǶˮĲл
ｵĲЩлǹȥֲն̼Ľʹû
ˮ⣬ЩлͬҪ⣬ͬĶ̼֣оԱТ
ίԱֻĵˮɫʵǼʳ

ֻ̬

    ˮۡһˮ⡰ƻ̬ˮı̬û
ʵģָıǲǡƻȴ۵ءˮ֮Դˮ
൱ںʹΧΪʪ󣬸ĽС
ʵѾɵˮ˵̬Ӳʤö٣ˮ⡢ˮ⡢
ǧʮˮⶼѾΪ̬õξ㡣ˮȺ̬Ҫ
ܶ౶ܹɵˮҲֻ࣬ҪԱһ³׺Ӻˮ
Ϳһ㡣

    ࣬ˮ˵ŭҹ붫ǵˮҪϢأ2/3
ΪŭУվ1/3ദڱΣ
һ£ŭ̬ϵͳƻڰװ׶33Ԫ൱
ÿGDP1.8

    Ҫָǣˮеֻϲš硰װΪ2100
ǧߣ귢һڶȡʵ2100ǧֻҪ5СʱͿ
ﵽһڶȡ˵ġŭ̬ϵͳƻڰװ׶33
Ԫ൱ҹÿGDP1.8ҲǴģΪҹĿǰÿGDPֻ
1Ԫң33ԪԼ൱ҹÿGDP30ҡ
ŭ̬ϵͳƻļǰҲǳģָŭɲë֮
һָˮӴʵӰ죬ɲꡣһ㲻Ū
̬ʧ޷㡣˵֣൱ҹ13ÿ20
ңҲſڿ֮ӡ

    һĳʶˮӶԻӰϴ󣬵˴ֻᡰС
ȴ˵жǻ࣬ʹΣȱݡ

    ڶֲˮ˵ŭҪǷӳݻش
¼ĹؼȻֻռ0.4%ȴӵȫ
25%ϵĸߵֲ77ֹҼռȫ25%ϡŭҲ
ḻĵй17ԱĵһλǺܶϡ
ͱΣֲҪϢأν缶ֻ⡣Щֶڡ
⡱ȴǲҪ֡ԡ⡱ԣҪһж
ûе֣Լˮ֮лжֻΣաһ˵
½ﲻˮӰ죬ǺǨƵûˮĵط档ֲԼң
ĳֲֻŭȺֻˮˮû򣬲Ź
ĿԡйѧԺֲоϯоԱ˵ˮ
⡰ƻҰԴıأҰҰ鱡Ұ
ȡڡֲ֡Ӧǲѵġ

    ⣬ˮᵽġ̬ԡҲһ޷α̬ϵ
ͳǴﲻϽӦı䶯֮УԶûС֮ʱ
    
ˮշ

    ˮշѾкܶྭоСһЩˮӵ
δֲֹͼͿ֪෢Ķɽɽ͵
ǵؿǱ䶯ĲˮӵѵҲǡǡǸɽȣȻΪ顣

    ƵС𣬿ԴǵǿȡƵȱ仯ˮˮʱͿռ
ϵعϵ۳ǲˮġǶżֺԵĴ
ͬδԤ׼ȷԵˮ⸽
ʱҲûиݶ϶ˮͲᷢˮ˵
ֺԵʵֻڳǧˮǡĳεԴ
ϣ϶ˮģȱͳѧĸݡ

ġۺ

    ˮģʵɽͺӹȹȫһ޶ĸɽϿȾۣ
˱ɳĮͺĸָľۡôྰۣôСһ
ҲеġŭϿжزļֵȫ׳۵
ϿȣԵĴӣʮɵԣԼϱ
Ӷȫ򺱼ġ

    ǣЩΪԽˮӵɣܲ֡ˮ֮󣬾
һɽľۣʹľ۸ḻӡСˡ
ɽ֮гһ300׸ߵĴӣʹȫ׳۵ϿȡΪ׳ۣ
ˮ̬ԶںʹӣʮҲ
ΪˮӾͼһˮҲϱĴӱɶģȻ
ȫ򺱼ġ

塢Ȧˮһ

    ˮģй1949굽 1990꣬ˮ8615µģ
ˮίԱˮӵı׼йԼ22ˮӣռȫ
50Դӹҵ˾Ϊ 5˾󣬸˾ӽ̲
Ȧˮټйֻŭ³زûκδ赲ɵıڡ
£ŭȴԴġ 繫˾ƻŭε
ͷˮ⣬аһ300׸ߣݳȫߵˮӡ

    ģɵˮ翪Σ

    ɡǺܲʵġֻоһЩ֣
ЩǷҲ̸ͼйˮȵӡ󡣵ʵǣ
ˮԴĿѾ90%ˮõĹˮռܵ
99%ϡҹˮԴ50%ˮܵռıҲ
Сô˵ǡɡأˮԴ100%㡰ɡ
ҹˮ븺ɡҲûﵽ

ϰӲԴ

ˮģˮɳټҲǸص⣬רҹ㶼ʱ
2250ꡣɸ㹤̵˵һֻ60꣬ǿǳ60ѾǴ
Ŀǵδˡ60ɫҪվȵÿԺô
ӡ60йеĺӶѰȫӵʽ
һʾ˵֡˵ɫˮѱһɶ
ˡһκ˹˹Ӷʱġ

һԡ˶ʤ족조Ͽƽڼйˣû뵽
˶⡣8.6ӣǽθһ
׵Ľ繫˾ʡŵÿϽ13ڵĵ˰ⲻ˵Ǹջ
ǰ󣬾ܰԤʹ֮ǵҪô죿
µ̯ӻ𣿡

    ģˮģһΪʮһ겻ȣڴ֮
ϻɳҪϲݹϽܣӼָ̬ķ
úܸܿڽӡһЩϰΪ벻㹻ʽ޷

    רҹ㶼ʱ2250ꡱ˵˵Ӷ߽
Ѿ2200꣬ǿԤвᡰΪǧ
ÿ궼Ҫġķڶʯϣԭǡ
̲ߡ־ڶߺӵײ3ÿӵ¶
Ϊ׼ĳһˮᣬ԰աһߡԭָԭλ
ɿԭ֤˺ӵǧ겻䡣ֹͣά
˼ʮ꣬߾ͻĿȫǣʧȥ书ˡ

    ֮ˮҲÿٵĻüǧҲûġû
ΪˮٻٶȻٻٶȻʲôͬԡκ˹
Ӷʱġ˵޵

    60йеĺӶ֮˵Ҳ޻̸֮һ
򵥵ĵǣԶᱻġ˭ſԿȣ
60겢̣ÿ궼Ҫޣʵֻһꡣǿ60겢
ζˮֻʮ꣬վѾ60꣬°վҲ45ˣ
װڳɳڣ롰Զúܡ

    㹤̵ġֻ֮60꣬Ϊѧչܿ죬60
ĽӦõļ뵽ĸܶࡣʵẽϴ
ӣԺĵˮߵޱȴƣѾô
ˣֻΪǸʤżΪŶš

    νϵˮӱȫǷʿһԸǡκ˹
˹Ӷʱġһʶ̬֡Ҳ˵ˮͨٲʹ
ȥʹǿȫٻ˵ˮӣҲǷǲ𲻿ɡƹٲǼ
ٲĺþۣˮҲǸӣȻʤء
ʱͶߡһµ300״ٲ
̾ѡҲΪִսкôȥЦˡ

    ȻԸӵҲǵɣֻҪǾò㣬
֧ӵĳɱǲġǡָ̬Ȼǲӵɣ
ΪˮγԼµĺ̬Ƕ˹̬һƻ
ΣҲΪƹٲĴڶԺ̬ʲôӰ졣

    ˵ġˮܷڽѾٱΪȽԴʽˣ
̫ܡܡܡ˾۱ܵΪɫͿԴ
ҲǴģԴǷȫǷȽе֡Ƚ
Դ˵˾۱ʵý׶λңңڣ60ڲָܲԴ
ֻġ塱򡰴ƻ㡣ʣµķڷչ̫
пڴ

    ҪעǣԴȱԣ粻ÿ춼Σ̫ҹ
춼ҪͣʹԴҪ塱վİ
зֶУˮġ塱վҪչЩ
Դˮǰ

ߡˮġۡ

    ģݽܣˮƾ۸ͬʱ
ơˮӵĽУΪԴˮΪ޳Ͷˮ
Ŀĳɱڴ̬;ĸӰ͸߰ɱ
Իڸˣˮűˡۡࡱɫ
Դ⻷ɫGDP㣬ˮƻϱΪơ

    һĵ˵ˮõˮܣˮ
ˮӸߴʹܱɵܣˮ˿Ҳûм١
磬Ҳֻ΢ˮ¶ȣӵϵͳضѡˮĿ
ɱȻġӦɱҪΪˮʹˮ
ĺΪףˮҪˮΪȶԴͷˮ˳
ΪˮԴͷˮˮļֵŭˮҲص
ˮ̬Ҫá

    ɫGDPǸʱֵʣҲϧЩһ־ͷ
εķʿҲʧȥ˶壬˺ݵĿջ
ſڿӵ̡Ҫ̸ɫGDPҪʿó㹫
ʽԭʼݣˮƻϱΪơҲ
˶һ¡䲻ðġ33Ԫ޷ŷ

ˡ̬

    ģ಻϶ԼȻĹϵз˼Ľ죬̬µȱ
Ȼʮص⣻һЩǹҴ޴ѵĹȻ
ٹ̣Ȼڵ˲˳ӦȻɣȻΪѣȻӶʽ
ȡҲ̬ϵͳҲ
ȻɣԾغͺǻ֮ĶԴȻ̬µĻҪҲ
淢չĻҪ󡣡

    Կʿ˻񻯵Ȼƭڣ
ɢѧαѧа˵ſѧߣ͹йľý
裬ƻӻйƽáȻ۵ɢʵͼ
ùڳǡȻˡĵλԳöթƭ
ַһޣ޷ջȨûԡҥԺ

šNGO

    η˶УNGO˹ؼãNGOҲʡ
£ݲ£ɽúڱа֮ǰҲNGOִйNGOʢ
ʱ60ڣ·ս顢ᡢU廨
š췴糱Ҳε磬ķս˶Ȩ˶Ů˶
ȷӿ˶Ҳ˶Ⱥеһ֧ڵĻ˶
˼ڹڵķӳҲǧ˿ƵĹϵ

    ڷȺڷ棬NGOȽƣĹϵȴԳ
ɫNGOҪԺţйNGO
עԱֱӹϵսͷĿԳءݵ
ĵ绰Ϊҫʱ˶NGOǱһ绰ġ
ڲĳЩԼͨõеʱ
뵽NGOⲿѹΪԼĻͷ˶Բ
ĻơNGOͷĿȻҲڴĻӰ

    NGOҪάҪһζѧĿꡣǡе
췴ǡηȻӪһַԵաNGO
ƻԣҲַԵ



ˮ绹ɫԴ
ǰһŭŲ¼Ϣһһҵ
˾Ļ繫˾ƻŭһӴ13վϢֶߡν
ͬУһʱŭվ벻ԼˮǷɫԴ֮ݴ
һں̬˼
һֱַܾڱٿˡŭˮ翪̬
ר̸ᡱȫĿѧһͣ13վ̣
ŭһ·й̬ʷϣΪһϺһ
Ŀѧ֮
 ŭ缶ֻ
ϴѧѧԺԺδڣǱοѧ̸϶ŭо
͸רңǹŭ״Ľǣ֪Ŀѧҵ
ġ
ŭһʺԴƹɽ´ءϣ̩ͨ
߾밲ŭϿȲվǲɶõ
õĴϿԵ塣
ŭҪǷӳݻش¼Ĺؼ
Ȼֻռ0.4%ȴӵȫ25%ϵĸߵֲ77
ֹҼռȫ25%ϡŭҲḻĵ
й17ԱĵһλǺܶϡͱΣֲҪϢأ
ν缶ֻ⡣ʵɽͺӹȹȫһ޶ĸɽϿ
Ⱦۣ˱ɳĮͺĸָľۡôྰۣ
ôСһҲеġ
ŭϿжزļֵȫ׳۵ϿȣԵ
ӣʮɵԣԼϱĴӶȫ򺱼ġ
ŭҹ붫ǵˮҪϢأ2/3ΪŭУ
վ1/3ദڱΣ
һ£ŭ̬ϵͳƻڰװ׶33Ԫ
൱ҹÿGDP1.8

 Ȧˮһ
Ϻܶ෢ʶˮӶ̬ΣԼձﲻԤ
ڷ׷ײ֮ʱйȴȻÿһõĺϽ
ˮվܲ13ݼվ⽨ŭйһɱ
ĺΣڵϦڱйѧڶԽ˵
ŭˮ滮һʮݼˮվҪǴؾڵ壬
һֱ䵽㡢·ǡŵޡˮ⡢ʯͷկ
ɣ¹13Ӹ300ףĿǰߵĳӡװ
Ϊ2100ǧߣ귢һڶȣЩʹ缪˹
ĻԺʿ̸ݹʴˮίԱ1998굽2001ȫ300
ˮվʾгϴ15׵Ĵ45000150׵
300200׵ĸ߰200Ŀǰڽĸ߰Ҫй
ʴӽĽʼϸ3070ﵽ˶壬80
ʼ˼ӴĸЧӦ90ΪӦýʱ
90Ͽӵһ˸߹һˡйӡΪˮ
ռȫӵ80%йռһ룬йΪȫ̬Ӱ
עĽ㡣
й1949굽 1990꣬ˮ8615µģ
ˮίԱˮӵı׼йԼ22ˮӣռȫ
50Դӹҵ˾Ϊ 5˾󣬸˾ӽ̲
Ȧˮټйֻŭ³زûκδ赲ɵıڡ 
£ŭȴԴġ 繫˾ƻŭε
ͷˮ⣬аһ300׸ߣݳȫߵˮӡ
ˮ󣬽ûƬû̵ıõԭʼɭ֡ʱգνĻ
ԱûжһԴ̬ϵͳκε顣
 ŵŲԼ 
300״ӵϢʯǧˡ˭ŭһɫĳŵֻ
йԼ
廪ͱĶλָһ򲻰Ѿ۵Դһ
ٶǰҹ԰֮ʱͰѾΪδ๲ͬܶ
ûֹֳһֽӹŲ֤飬һ⽨ŭӵЦ

ŭΪŲҹӦŲԼصĳŵ涨ǽ
̵ֹģΪҪΪŲΪұͿ
صļֵҪر𱣻˵ͿԼٹ̴Ӱ
ʧ漰һŲĳŵ˵ҹġȻ
 羰ʤǳȷĹ涨ڱڣֹ͵
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