                      ˿µϣ20050420գ

05.04.20, ӡ涼ԣ˿Գԡ
05.04.20, ƱԲ԰֤ĸ롷
05.04.20, ˮɹһ󻷾۷Ӧ÷Χ
05.04.20, ֤Բ԰ǷõĤ
05.04.20, ܡȺĴ㡪ˡ
05.04.20, shawnҶԲ԰һ㿴
05.04.20, Ư˻ٲһΣҲй
05.04.20, 廪ΪȻ֮ѡɿġ
05.04.20, ־Ըα
05.04.20, ʦԡڻʦѧϴŹѧľٱ˵
05.04.20, ڡԿнһӵ⡵
05.04.20, ţ̸̸ۡȥ
05.04.20, ޼ˡۡۡⷨ
05.04.20, ӡ̸ۡϵϷ
05.04.20, ҵҵҪټ֡

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                          涼ԣ˿Գ

                              ӡ

    ɫƽ֯վŷᣬںδ׼
ֲתˮЩˮһBtĶ׻ֿܵˮҪ
桪档涼ԣôԳأ

    ߼ԻˣĳЩѧҲʹáտһλˮ
רҵĵӷ̸Ŀ֧תͬʱҲԺBt
ʾ˱Ҳǣɱ棬᲻Ҳк彡أ

    ڿĿҶλ˵ľⲻɴйBtо׿ν
ţ䶰ȥ˽һ£ڵɣߵ
һĹڣǺܲεġ

    ңȻôһʶ˵״ͬɱ
ģȴһΣ塣߲ˡˮںȻɱ
Եģȴسԣ١С⡢ȵȡ
ЩȻɱЩܲ彡ҲЩ޺
棬ٺᣬһȻб˵Ҳп
á

    BtǶȫȻɱ֮һƽѿ߸˾
ѧBacillus thuringiensis˼BtǸ˾ѿзڵһֵ
ʾ壬Ϊڶءڶ޶ġƽѿ߸˾ѿ
ڶؾĳܽ⣬泦еĵøӹ
жԵĵ׶أ볦ϸϵϣ泦ס
˲ٽʳ13Ͷˡ

    ǰﶾؾͱΪũҩʹãνл
ɫǲũҩBtڶũҩ
ũҩҪȻѧũҩܶࡣ1981꣬BtڶصĻ򱻿¡ˡ
ת뵽ϸУתҲܷڶأת
ҶӺҲԽڶأᱻˣ࿹溦ת
ԲûũҩĿǰǿ溦ת׺ת޻

    ôΪʲôBtڶضˡ޶أмԭڳʳʱһ
ҪȡųԵģڶһֵʣʼȺԣʵ
ڶ60϶ȵˮһӾʧȥԡʹҲûйϵڶֻ
泦Ի²ܼӹжĵף˺θԵģ
ǳϸ治жص׵壬˲ж˺ȥ
ڶأһֽ

    ʹBtڶΪũҩмʮʷֲBtĿ
溦תҲʮʷδһжġ
ʵҲBtڶزӰ첸鶯彡

    ѧũҩߣһʳƷȫһȻֲBtת
ԲûũҩôԽʡãҿԱũҩȾԱ
彡Ǵкôġ˵Btתȫ
ɫɫƽ֯ȥܻѧũҩĹʹãȴⷴת
䡰űۡ

2005.4.18.

й걨2005.4.20

(XYS20050420)

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Բ԰֤ĸ

Ʊ

ڹҼо20̬뻷о
Բ԰飬ר֤ӦлרҵĲ롣
ǣָӵ̬⣬֤ͨмһЩеʽ
֤ѧ𣿿ѧϵ鶼ǿԾģǿ͹۴ڵ
ʵ޳ɵûбȻϵ˹̹ʱֻʮ
ϿɣǺȴ֤ʵȷġԲ԰˵һ
֤һõСͶƱӿסҪ
ȡһЩʲô֤ۡУרҵʿ
ǿԵģֱӲۣĽҲδһ룬
һʿרҵⷢ⣬䷢жĿɿԺȨأ
ɻܾһЩٳۼСʱܹҵѧĽ𣿿Ҳ
Ӹ֤Ͳеרҡ֤᲻ͬڼ۸֮
֤ᣬѧĶ֤ǡġ

˶ɻܾѡֵܾĻͼֵ
֪ġ֤ȫɻܾһٰ죬乫һܹõ֤
ˮǷҲӦò֤ľٰأҪ֤ᣬ
ȻҲӦɱǱл֣ǹһܾ
СһҼԸһССġ԰
죬ܹƽԻ𣿴ӹĽǶǷԽȨΪ
أܾһٶıǷεأⲻò˻
޷㣬ּȨΪԼĲ̣ΪԼȨ
ԡһǵãǰЩʱġ籩УܾҲΪȨ
ôش飬ʱΪʲôҲ֤֤أոá籩
ֲܾ֮Ӧרӡ󡣴ļϵ
òʹ˻ɻֳֺܾۣȡʱǰЩʱ
ϢܣĳЩֳһóʹôַš

Բ԰׷ҲԶֲӰ켫󣬵ǲܿɿ顢ƺͳ
֤()

2005419

(XYS20050420)

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ɹһ󻷾۷Ӧ÷Χ

/ˮ

Բ԰ķ⣬ܴķ졣Ҫԭ
Ϊһֻܾ˾йظ˵չ涨ڹصﱣ
ڵĽͶʶ5000ԪĿһܾύӰ
飬ɻֽܾԲ԰׷ĿδԿ衣
ΪӦڳΥҪһĳΥء

Ϊ˵ǲȷġνڹصﱣڵĽͶ
5000ԪĿӦָ½ĿӦðﱣĵ
λԼй̶ʲбҪάл񹲺͹۷Ҫ
ĶǽĿӦͳİеĿΡ
죬ķΧ̫ʵϸ޷˵Ҫɣ

һ뻷ĿĲ

һΪʵʩɳչսԣԤ滮ͽĿʵʩ
ɲӰ죬ٽáͻЭչƶ

Ŀǰס½衢ͶĿĻ׼أǿʵͬʱ
ơͬʱʩͬʱգͬʱΡĿ
ҪǶĿеάͽĴ޸κ׼
⡣ңΡĿһ㶼ԭĿڼУ
ʵνͬʱ

չ

Ρ졢Ŀͬ½Ŀһ㶼оԡԡ
ԡ涨еҲҪлôгɱؽ
ӣЧʴȽ͡Щ»Թʧ
磺ĵ̰ĿͶʶܸߣڷڼ䣬Ҫ
Ӹ߼ӹ̵ʱնĿҲ뻷ĻԱ
Ҳ걨۱沢õ׼֮ʩĻˮ֮
ֻܵۿŴ̨̿ܽе̷Υԣ
ϻûκι޴ĿҲȫ뵽
л۷ΧڡΪʵϸ޷ʵ֡

ʵʵкѲ

չһйԱֽͣȷʵӦðκ
ΡĿĻôκελڲļ¡Ŀܲ漰
ǲҲӦýлۣҪһͬʵϸִл
ôÿһͥװҲлӰ֮ʩǱ
ԶɽλũԼҵɽǽҪҲȵ
ȻҪύ棬ǲӦӰ
ִлæùĸҵ
ܹ˷ص

ġȨӦͳһ

ȷʵΪҹӦöеļĿҲȫʵл
ƶȣôȫ˴ƶһ˾Ҳδɡǣʵǹ
ҵĻŸ͵صĽͣô
ȫձĴΥ󣬶һҲشļʧְ
Բ԰ϣѾйָ𻷱ԼӼɥʧΣ
ֱ˵Լ֪ȷȱɵĵȷ涨ͬʱһ
Ӧ÷ΧĽγȨεķ룬ȻɶԻ
ӦϵĻҾ档ɹ涨˻ķΧ
ֻȨͬʱҲҪеΡĿǰ͵ľ
ǣԸĸĿʱͿԳָĿΥԸ
ĸĿͿԲŲʣʹ׷ΣҲֱ׳˵û
ΪʲôǹһִоȻ˲ࣿǻ⣬
ǻֵĽ⣿ΪӦǺߡ

ġͻ

Բ԰ĤֻǺٹ̵һ֣ҲΪٵͬʱ
˳Ժˮ©һⱾһַǳǷǳá
Ľˮ©ĺð취йطĤľ弼Ҳۣ
ΪԲ԰κٹ̣ȷʵӦлӰ۵Ļ
ôΥľԲ԰صļʧְ
Σе׼Բ԰ι̵ĲŶӸϵܺܶಿŶʧڷ
׼Բ԰Ĥ˭Ҳܷ׼Բ԰ĺ
ι̣ʽôܹλĿôܹʩ

Բ԰ιӦӦû⣬̲Ĥûֱ
ϵġӦýлǲ̷ĤҲҪӦû
ĤҲҪл

ڹһֹԲ԰Υ֮ǰûһΪԲ
ιӦýлӰۡȻһֱ̬֮Щ
Ŷ˵һЩѾʼ취ժԼΡʵϣ
ЩӦһ룬ԼķʶǿԻĲԣǹ
һ˻Ӧ÷Χ˻ҡ

չһͻ߼ڻڽ
ˮӵʽй𣿱ֲ԰˹Ҳ
ĤʽйӰ𣿱ȫΡ
칤̻ĿжٽйǲǶҪл

ôǲҪһʣȫ¶ձΥ˻أǵ
һ˻Ӧ÷ΧɽȫΧִл
ĻҾ棿ȻһΪҵĻ߻أȨ
ֵκش󻷾мܡǣһֲӦɵ
÷ΧķĳһҪĻ⣬ص˻۷
ԡƽ޹ʵİѴҵΥľء

֮Բ԰ǰϿµվһݻ
ĸлҵ׼ŶΥ⣩ǣ
һΪĿܶԻشӰ죬ӦȨҪĿ
лۡòҪʲôΥ壬Ҫ
ɵ÷Χ

(XYS20050420)

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֤Բ԰ǷõĤ



˷֤Բ԰ǷõĤֱַˣ
CCTV4ƵΪͷҲˡ

ĸоңʵû˼ΪԲ԰ʵΪԪ
Ժرǽ,ţҵչɭˮԴ
ݽߣȻǨȻĺֲ˹һ辰
ʵ塣

Բ԰٣ǲתʵ

Բ԰԰֣˹Ȼ֮ơӵʵ
ú԰Բ԰͹һɽǰݵ͵أ
Ϊһ¡̨أΪǾ۾֮ΪϪˮ˸
ΪѼԭأΪ޽԰֮ɽһ޴ˮ
⣬Ӧܸ߶ҺܷḻĵˮǬ¡ʵۿ
԰԰εʥ£͹ʫ˴󷢣СȪʮˮ硱֮䡣

Ȫ֮棬δܼˮƣ˵ʮˡԭûе
ˮĹˣˮˮҲޡμ֤
ҲˣϷĤǮҪƻԭ̬̣ˮ
ͳΪһ©һ©߶ˮˮڱ˱

ȥʲôǳ֮ơֻнȫֵ
ӸϽ.ŷϿѧչۣ׸ֵǨõĿˡ

Щڡǵĵ塷УСʷ뻷
ר⣬ȤѲȥһۡ 

(XYS20050420)

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ȺĴ




ǲСʱ˵ĻǺ鱾Ͽģʮһĺ
ƤҪĺӣϵ۶Ҫͷʹˡ

Сʱĺӡ

ʱǼסϺе·ϣҲ̫Զĺ·һ̽á
ҵĸǸϵĻͽҪһϽá
ȥҵܵܿѧҲȥĸֻϽáĸÿ
ϽööԡûؼҴöԣһ취
ҳԵġĸˣֹҪԲ˵Ͻ
ȥҲкöԵġĸ׵Ӱ죬ɿͯʱ
ʱѧ֪ʶͷС˵ǲϲϽ
ڳϣɵһʦ߶߶

ĸãܹϴˣǺͱ˲һ
ġ˵öˣһҲͷص˵ôʲôһ
أ

˵ܹϴҪõġ

ûкöԣ

˵ȻĺöԵġ

ôˣ󲻴㣿

ĸܴףǴôʳ⡣

˵ΪкöԵĻģ˾ͻ
õġҾõȥҲûʲôô

ĸ֪кӵļıǻش𣬡˶ȻҪġ

ô˭أ

ĸ˵ǲŽ̵˸ɵ顣

ʣһ˵ŽҲõģǴɨ
ˡʦ˵ԼҲ˵ɨ٣Ҫɨءϴ롢
ӡ˼˵ɨĲŽ̵˱Ž̵˸ٿ

ĸ˵˵ûвģڵġ

Һʣô˵Ĵ㣬ǲǾǼҺ
Ȼ￴ʯأСǲأ

ĸܻ˵˵

ʿͷԼҲɲסôϵ۵Ĵǲϵأ
˵ϵģôϵ۵Ĵأ

ĸȻ򡢲ȻŭôǸȡǣ
ţһ˵һؿڻʮ֣ϵ۰ˡҵµ
ɣ

ĸһֻ˵㶫ӢѧУ༶ûй㶫˵ģ
ΧھҲûй㶫ˣȡʲô޴ӴԺ
ĸ˵öˣĸĿǻӵ˼Ҫεġ

ʹ㶫ˣȻûһ֪ȵģĸ
ĶԺ˵ĳνͬնһǼȺͼնֺ
һֵǺǲ鲻ġȾͼնǲǵȼֱۣ
Ҳ㲻ǼȾǸõĴʻ㣬ǿԻ϶ġ

ΪϵۣĸңҲǹ̶ˣ
ﶼ顣

Ϊĸ䣬ҴӶʮʱĻʼ
ıǲվͽ̣һֱڵ
ʱĸؾ䣬ҵĹϵ۴󲻴
⡣ȻʮֺЦȷʵҲ̫ˣ̫Ǵ֮ˣ
ϵ۵ĸҪôĻ

пҲ˼ϵǷ⣬ⶼ
˼һǸˣҾ;ʵӦǸ
⣬ֻû˼ˡΪ漰ΰϵ۵Եʣ
˼ϵǷʱҲûиչʵϵ۴󲻴
㷢ʿʼӦչ˼ġϵ۴ʲô㣿ϵ۵Ĵû
ֵϵ۵Ĵʲôطڶǲϵ۷Ŵĵطϵ۴
Ⱦϵ۴̬Ⱥʹͷ

й½̵ʽʿйػ۴Ӵѧķǵ
εģϵ۴󲻴洦ϵ۵й滷
ԣԡԡ

̵ʽʿûдѧĸ߶ȸ㻷۵ǿ
Բ԰̹֤ᡱϳһʮһĺӣ۾һ
1Ϊʮһĺӿⲻ̫רҵģӦǺܿģġ
ǡ̵רҶвͬöͯͨѯԼй
ʿܣȴնгԲ԰̷Ĥ̬ܶɵĶ
Ӱ졯2

ǶǶͯˣ֪ͯʱô¡ʮһĶͯ
ûзִ磬Ƥ᣻޵ϵ۶ͷʹ
ԲҪ˿

ͯȷʵǺҸģᱻĸȡʱҲͬ
ˣʹȡҲΡͯҲѧˣǲ
ˣȴר

ϡǵǰѧˮʱˮ״̬ˮˮ
ˮˮҲˮˮˮǻ᲻ϵز䵽ˮȥģ
κεˮϵµĵˮԵˮΪߵġˮĳ·
ڡˣĺԼгʱ󺣣
֮ǲˮˡˮԶȵˮӣǵѧо
רŵѧʡЩһʮһĶܸͯ㶮𣿷©ʮ
ˮģĤģճġġѧġģһ
ʮһĶ֪ͯһ˵Լʮңһʮһ
ĶͯڵСѧѧ𣿵ˮΪˮͨΪ
ëϸرĽͨˮĿ󻯶Ⱥ͸ֶʶӰ죬Լ
ԶʵԣһʮһĶ֪ͯ
ëϸܵĹܾͳΪѧʵĲͬͬԲ԰ë
ϸܳȶѾ±𣬲ռСԲ԰ĵ
ˮԼ̽𡭡

йˮĻˮ֪ʶûиʲô

һʮһĶͯܶЩۺԵļԵشֻ
һЩԵ⣬ֻжЧһǺ˵ǸСң٣Ǹ
СƭӡСҵûʲô˵ĺӴСңСҳп
ܳΪһˡǸСƭӳ˾鷳ˣ޷ġ
ƭѾˣ˶ڣ׺ˣڵƭѾ׺ÿ
ϷԺ㡣ƭӵĸʽûʵıĿظɣɾ
һƭҲҪȨΪʲôҪַӰƭȨ
3

һѡҵϵۻ᲻Լ
ĸȡҲԸȥشмԵ˵ǸСƭӡ

ʮһĺӦԼԣǸƤˣǸ
ϵ۶ҪͷʹˣԲӦǸѵóƭӵĺӣ
ӡ

ԸйĺӶĺӣҪйĴѵСƭӡ

1μˮԲ԰˭ú󵼹ڣ
2ԷԲ԰̹֤ᡱ۸С
3μ 4/11 ߹Ҿʳƭǹ˾Ĵ
Ƕҽ

2005419ŦԼ

(XYS20050420)

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ҶԲ԰һ㿴

shawn

ˮΪЩ󵼹ڣҾΪҲơרҵǶȿ
㣬1ǷҪз漰Ȩ⣬ͬרҵ
ʿвͬ־ߣӦ֣ʧеá
2ҪзǾǲǷҪҪУνе⡣
ڶרҵҲڴ˵㡣̬ʿΪˮһ̬
ˮ½ֲעⱣ֡ˣ԰ߵˮ๵
ΪԡΪʹáϡĤĿǶԹ̼治Ϥ
¡ȱΪĤʱҲԾˮӲ֪
ʹҲ޵ʵϣԲ԰Ŀ
Ҫ̺ͨάֺˮλ߶ȵ飬ˮλȻЧ棬
ˮٺֲܵƻýֵȷǲεġ
ұ̬ѦҰû

ˮΪ̾ڱֲǼ˵ġܡ
ܡ˼ˡ

˳С⣬ˮ⣬ƴˮˮںνϸҵ
صĵνϷʱĽӣһ𣿸С򣿣

Ҹ˼Ƴ緽ֶжϣΪ˫κεġС
ҡ

(XYS20050420)

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˻ٲһΣҲй

Ư

ŷĳ, ѧ. оһλ޸Ľڱ
ܱؼ˻ߵɧݺ. Ϊʵúʵ, Ǿα
Ƭ, ŪһֻʧĺӱľϵƬɢ(͸ӵ"
չ"һ). ƭһȺеĶͬĵͷ̫̫췢ŵ
о. ʱЩ߾ͲϧЩֽҪķѶٿ
ľ.

ֵĸа, ߵǿͷ. ĳ, ǲֿƵʵ
ɴԱӲ, "ǡ"¥¶﷿һֻ
ûзˮƿ. һϰ鷳, ܻܿᱻִ, Ҳ
û. ƽʱ, ϶ỳҵλ¹ͬѧʵ˰
ˮƿŻȥ. ƫƫͷһҵͬѧʵԱһ¥æȡѪ. 
ԼؼǵˮƿǷŻȥ˵, ǸڴϺεʵԱҲ˵
, ȷǷŻȥ˵. ΪѪ˵, ˿һ
ʵ̨. ɵǶ﷿ĹԱ֤˵9мʱ
Ҳˮƿ, ˮ. ϰ, ƿ˷
, Ӧʲôط. ȴʧ, ʬ嶼ûҵ, ? 
ǼҪ鵽, Ǳ߾Ȼò, ˱ҲûҶǵִ. 
鲻һ, ѧҽԺţĴţڱöɷţ, 
ѧУȥв˵ǰ쵰ôɧ, İʵҰᵽȥ.

ϰҲرЩ쵰, һָֻŰ¶˵, 䲻ͱ
. ר˴ǹӵĹ, ǲ, ΪҲԸ⿴
Լҷֵ̨ĸӵķŪ. ÿ걾Ҫǧ򾭷Ͷҩ
Ұ, Ҳ, ΪҲں. ƫƫʵҼֻܸ
򱣻Ķʹǵͬ. ԼĿǰ, û
ʲôɭ֮Ĳ, 벻ҽԺжٲܿ. ʦѧ
, ѵЩȡ? ѵԼûбʶ
? ǲ, Լúܺ, ʵ鶯ͬһҲ
. ҵ˵˵, Ҹոտʼʵʱ, ±
ѵùǺ.

һǰѳĸʵҵϳһСʱ, 
ȥ׼ʵ. ֮Сӱں¼Ȱ,һС
ֽȥϰ. ϰ嵹, 뿪ĸʱ˻Ắˮ. 
һŮͬѧŭصָ:"ѵ㲻Ҳһе?" 
ʱ. ԺÿһҪ, ٲҷƴ.

ڶ, Ҿúԩ. Ҳ鵽ʾ, ЩӦ÷ڸɱ
Ϣ, Ȼͷȡ֯. ǸϴŮʵԱ. һ
ֻС, ָͷԴ, ſһ¸ɴ, 컹
䶯ԴĿɿڴ:"ǶԶʹСķ.㲻Ӧֻ
Լĸܶöʹ." ôɲ˵, ô, ˵ǿ
ԶԶο. Ҹ, ˵˽д. ʱ
ҲӦָ﷽ԼʹĲ.

ɼ, ʵ鶯ĲЩϺ"ﱣ"ļһ, 
ٺ˵ķʽ"". 

(XYS20050420)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

廪
ΪȻ֮ѡɿ


ģ

廪ҵġȻ֮ѡӦðѦҰְһĵһ
ʾ飨XYS20050419ǰյУ¡ƼˡȻ֮ѡ
վ(http://www.fon.org.cn)Ҳʤңݶݶ֮վĸ
СһɫãҳеĳӶɫģͱɫ
̫ЭcssԺ׽ݲ£¼ݻֻ
20019£ԺȻ֮ѡʲôûһļ¼ɿ
˲˽⡣ⶼС£վġվڼܻǲģҲд
ģʡ˲ʱ䡣Ⱦɣר˷£

һʲôɿ飬ΪʲôȻ֮ѡӦɿΪһֶκͱֶ

ɿǡĳַʽ㷢顱ǷԵĶɿҲǷԵ
ֶκͱֶΡȻɿ鱾ννģڲɿʱɿ飬
Ǵˡ磬Уɿ߼֤ô
ֻܵѧƷܵ۷£Ҫ߼ĳ
ϣ۷¡

Ȼ֮ѡ³̵ڰҲ˵Ȼ֮ѡֺ֧֯Աչ
ѧͻоռϢ飬Ϊ价ṩݣ
ˮƽַͨʽչԱͽᵽġ
ѧͻоռϢ顱޲ҪԺͿ
ѧжνˮƽȻҲӦð߻ԱۺϷˮƽ
Ϳѧ֪ʶɿԣνġռϢ顱
¾Ա֤ѧԺͿ͹ԣʲôѧͻо

ҲϡȻ֮ѡ̤̤ʵʵظĹԹڡ
רʱȻ֮ѡһЩNGOԼʿɿΪһֶκ
ֶҲԶ׼ģڽε¼бֳľУ

ɿԶΪǧߣ
ѦҰŭΪʡ̸϶ר˵ʲôƺǵĸ
׺ӣ֪֪ƺѾˡ
׼Բ԰֤̹¡ö˶ɥʧˣɥʧˣ˵


ȵȡڱĳϣɿİϷȻ˾ƺһ
гĸоȴƻˡȻ֮ѡҶλ󣬸˻Ƿʵ
³̵ġƶȺԻȫĻʶɫ
ٽйĻҵȡлȫչּ

οͳͱĬĬŵع˵ע⡣
ͳз˵ͼֲӵǸȻò˶ĹҲ
ɡġɫƽתϴȻɽһ
жǲǻʲôԿԣΪǰһЩĹԭ
˴ε֪ʷǡܵķѧɵģŲ᲻
ס

ҲᵽΪ̫ĻNGOsϲ£й֮ӡ
ѡˡȻ֮ѡôΪ˱⡰Ȼ֮ѡΪ͵ġй
֮ӵĻNGOǲҪɿԡ

ڡ֮

ΪҵġȻ֮ѡԱ˺ôڴ˱
ʾǸ

ΪʲôΪʲôۡѦҰڷӵϴѧе
УԲ԰֤ϵ٣֤ɽδ˹Ǹ
ݡȻ֮ѡվϵ˵
(http://www.fon.org.cn/index.php?id=4750&sid=1218687)
˻ӱƸΪܸ£֮ʽΣΪ
Ȼ֮ѡҲӦΪ˵иһΣԲеһΡ֮
ˣԸǸλջء

ΪȻ֮ѡɿ

׵ġΪһģ
http://www.fon.org.cn/index.php?id=1044&sid=1218658еļλ


a)ڱϿһƪɭֿԣؿС£л˵
ĳѧзģҲۺĳֱ
һ¡

ȫͷĻͷĻ֤⡣ۺ
񡱣Ϊʲôµĳ־һǡһ¡һһ¡
ڴԹӦеֱ֤ӾһۣҲ͵춨˱ɿĻ

Ҳֻ֧еĻǰѲĹϻʵ֯
ϼɤӣɳڿ͹⹫˾ҳļΪһ
ԴĴ¡ڵĺܶ໷Ӱ쵽ĳЩˡ棬͸Ҫ
ԺͿԵ֤ˡûкԺͿԵäһ£ҾԲ
һ¡

b)˵ѧ˰кͰΡΪڶȻԻİ
Ϊ˸ı价ʲôԸΪ˶ԻΣŻȥ
ʵж

仰һ˵ǡɿᵽ˰ᵽԸᵽ
ΣûᵽԣûᵽѧûᵽȫҲ˿͡
ԡѧۣΪ˵ɿĻʿ˼еԪصȱ
ʧ

c)뼸ǰͷϴҵԳˮԴ˷ѻûгΪڹ㷺ͬĶۣȻ
Ľ죬ѧڶϴҵ˷ˮصĵͳơ
Ϊȴҵԣͷϴ˷ѵǵˮʲô
ֻҪõаݲˣܲΪɿﻹڵԣҲݷ
ĳҰܲΪвɴСҲȥˣһ
ⲻСɵģߣһ֮ҽ˵
ɽȥ˿ƻǳϦ֮ΪͨڣҪΪƻЩ
飬һǡС¡ܲΪ̫С͸ɴأ

ɿɿʵһΡɽķʾ䣬ʽɿľ
ַñԵǽһгɿա״Ų֪
йԹ͹õַ֤ȻҲûõַ֤ҿ
һʽķʺãû̫壬Ϊ׻رһؼ
⣺ܼġС¡ֻкؿһ

Ҳϣؿֽʵ΢΢Լ˵ֽǱʼǱ
ͽֽӡֽӡֽڵĲͽֽֽǰٷ֮һٵĴľʼǱ
ֽӡֽӡֽǼӹϸЩֽԶԶںؿ֮ϡ

Ϊ˽ʡֽţУһЩ취

1.ñʼǱԼǱʼǣñʼǱ
2.ڵĲͽֽŵһڲʱֻһŷã
һǽһƬֽֿһֻһţʱֻðž㹻
ˡ
3.ӡӡóдɨ衢յȷʽȡϡǴӡ
ɣҪһʽļӡ˫棬ҳߵĿհףý
ٵֽżɴӡȫݡ

Сѧһ뵽취ǣ

1.ϴҵдرҵЧֽŵĿհס
2.ʹд˫ҵֻдҵ

֧дֽţּ֧ĺؿΪӻʱױʵּܼ˵
УΪԶȼҾͲףΪʲô׵˲
ͽֽΪ٣ҪסؿţΪؿûΪ
ô󣬵ͽֽֽȺؿǲʵʹͽֽȻ
С£ʵǲǱȡҪأҪڷ
˵ĻʱΪʲôֲճԽӴıʼǱͽֽӡֽӡֽ
ΪҪһЩһ޹صӣ

жȱԣҲȱԡҼΪ
äһ£ҾԲһ¡

d)ǲӦòмڡԡӦûڡ
һвȻҹԴ״ĴΪ 

׵ɿ飬һֱµһǲףвȻ
ҹԴ״ĴΪΪʲôһҪڡǡ
ͽֽʲôƪ´ͷβֻɿ飬һ˵˵
֤֤Ȼ֮ѡɿļ֮һ

2005.04.20

(XYS20050420)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

־Ըα

й

Ҳ֪ô˶ڹע֡αǱҲãҲã
ǸۻҲãǲҪˡЩνNGOƫƬ
ĳ̶ֳҲΪصĻµġ뷢ӵλ
ѧҺҲҪЩרҵѧĻʿ̫ôôϾ˼Ҳ
רҵ֪ʶͬû֪ʶûȨķȨ
ͺԺʿ֪һʦŴѧݽҲˡԵĳɷֶ
Եĳɷ֡ⲻӦù˼ҡ˼ûԵ֪ʶ
Σ뻹˵ĹΪϵȨȴ̬ϵȨǻ
ĻҲôֱ׳ǼȻѧϵȨ
ô㵽ûжŭ̬йϸĵ飿ô֪ЩνĻ
ʿ˵ĶǴģǵ˼ˣ˵ĳЩˣǸ
ֻ֪ۻһ£Ҳ֪ûȷ̬
ǣ˵Ǻ˽⣬ǣҪˡѧҰ
ѧĿܶԻ׵רҵ֪ʶ!˼ȥΪ
ü˰㻹˵ۻðɣ͵ǫɣô
˵ȥ̬ҲۻʰɣҲ֪Ϊѧҵ
ץס˼ҵʧһʱƫ˵ĺναʿҪ
ϽĿѧֽ̬̽ӵĿҪУ˧磬һ
ò˼ҿûһѧƾ˭㷽зȨҾ
ˡôһʹѧģôѧľûһƸΪ
ʹ߰˵˼αǾαȥؼ
ҪԵйĿɳչư˧磬ǲ

bird

ѧǸܹ㷺ѧƣѧĿɲ̬ѧһġⷽ棬Ҳ
У˵֪ⷽʶҲΪ֪ʶȽϹ㷺ѧ
ġרҵĻѧȷ֪ʶѣǲȴ
ȥѧ飬飬˼ץסѱѾ
ץѱǷĲԣôѱץסҪʡһ£
ֻһˣһûаԼ֪ʶڸõķ޿ɺǣ
Щ͸ֵˡΪȺ壬עֲԼȱ㣬ȴֻ
ֹ˵ǾͲˡȻڻо̬Ϊص
ѧƵҲ٣˵ѿĴ߹ŵʿһҹʯ
оͷҶͬʱҲڵƹЧıʩרҵʿ
ûУֻǸһЩʵʵġС¡Щרҵ֪ʶ
ڹ¶٣ȱ֪ʶ˵ǵ˶Իһ
⡣һ棬Ĵھл֪ʶ˲Ը뻷Ӫô
˵Щɻ֪ʶ˵⣬Ҳ˵ǻӪ⣬Ǹ˵
ǻӪ⣬Ϊл֪ʶǺܶˣͳһԣ
Ը뻷ӪôǲԼͬˡȻЩѧ֪ʶΪ
лģǿ϶вΪлĲѧ֪ʶġΪʲ
ôרҵ˶вټ뻷Ӫģƫƫл֪ʶ˾͸Ը
أ뵽ɾΪ֪ⷽʶԿӪĲ
顣

(XYS20050420)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

ڻʦѧϴŹѧľٱ˵

𾴵ķ

    գ˿վǷڻʦѧϴŹѧ
ٱһģУϤǳӣͨ鷢ָ벻ʵ֮
ΪΣ

    ˿վ軪ʦѧоʦ齨Ĺල
Գֿл⡣

    


                                 ʦѧо 
                                     2005420   

ӰڻʦѧϴŹѧľٱһĸ
ԭߵҪɾȥ

(XYS20050420)

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ڡԿнһӵ⡷



    ꡶Կнһӵ⡷(XYS20050419)һ
˵˵Կֻǵ˸ԺУԿҵν
Ҳסڴѧһ󲿷ǳԼѧڸص
Կ챨μӿԣдҵĵĻڣȥνѧУν
ָʦϰСʱһСʱʱ䣬ȫǡһпԼ࿼
ѧϰƻԡԾǶ߿ͳǷȱġΪ࿼ѧʲ
ôÿοԱļƣΰʱѧϰѧʲô飬Լ

    ȻԿżߣͨʲߣҪָΪ̫
ԾѧϰûкܺõԿѣҸǣǰ
ֻҪѽ̲Ŀ꣬Ϥ̲ģ˽̲ݣͲѡԣͨԿ
ˣѧǿ߱ˣΪҲ̫
ϰ

    һͳеרƱҵǷרҵҵڹ֮࣬Լ
ȫѧͨ˷ɣרƣҵ֤ͨʦʸԣȻ
ù֮࿿ѧͨ˷ɣƣҵ֤ԿɵרƺͱҶ
һŲؿˣ˵ġרƺͱͬһרҵԼ8
ظĿĿѶҲһԿƺרƾͬһ⣩ʵ

(XYS20050420)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

̸̸ۡȥ

ţ
Department of Physics
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Tel: +47  73551134
Email: yun.liu@ntnu.no

ԶɽĴιڡۡʱչ۱
˵ ¿ķ굶 ЩǺȤζġ
ܹϸѵ˻˵Ϊۡ
˿ȺӦСơĴ󻰡һ
˽һЩ

սڼĳһ죬(˵ʿ)㲥˾ھ
йϰһǸsurpriseѧLennart Ekbom ע⵽
֪ͨOstermalms College⡣ 
۱ΪSurprise Examination ParadoxжֱʽPrediction 
and Hangman paradoxes˵ǡۡϻۡȵȡ
һƪѧ·1948һڡMind־ϣD. J. O
Connor.  

۶صڶѧ߼뵽۵Уʹ֮Ϊ
Ĵʶ(Epistemic Paradoxes)֮һ ( lottery, preface 
knowability). ڵһѧ(O'Connor)Ϊ۵ı
⣬ܸϰͬʱϰǸsurpriseʵ
ϰͻᷢǸsurprise, 3Уûн

һѧ(Scriven) Ϊϰʱ䡱Ԥ(unexpected)Ϊ
˵Ϊܴǰƶ(can not be deduced in advanced)ǰ
ʲôأϰԤʵԤϡѭˡ 
Shaw Medlin ΪѭΪ۵ĸԴȻδ
ΪʲôϰʱȷʵǸsurprise, Իû۵ıʡ

һѧ(Quine) ΪӦá֪(knowing),ǡƶ
(deducing) ⡱surpriseֿԷΪɣ QuineĹ۵
skeptical approaches, Ϊǲܶ϶һǰҹ֪
ϰ޼ʦġǰᡱҲһࡣΪ
ǵϡⲻǿҵֱһǰҹͻ֪
(know)ڶϰ״Kaplan  Montague ȵĹ۵
Non-skeptical approaches, ΪϰһУǿ
֪ģ ǰϣǰСsurprise, 
self-contradictory, 硱һԲķΡҲ˵Ĺ۵㡣
۵ȻܽʲôʵϰԷǸ
surprise. ֵһSorensonΪ
ǰǸStatement that is true but which can not be known by certain 
individuals even if they are presented with the statementǸǳ
ȤмֵĽۣпǸĿǰΪֹȵĽͣ
ڻûȫһЩʽۣԲҶ˵

˵ǿһ£µһ۵ܻԶɽȤ
ΪһֱܺԻġƸ֡OlinΪǾ㵽һǰ
ҹȻǰ᣺ϰᷢϰsurprise. ǲͬʱ
justified, ԾһϰҲsurprise, ӡһ
ʼǴġ 

˵۵оѳڴ(Լ)
˿۵ˮƽҿԶƪM.PhilԼǳ 
http://www.wischik.com/lu/philosophy/surprise-exam.pdf  רҵ
ĽشѴڡαʿϵи
Զɽƪ߼ֵ߼ѧЦҲ
Ȼġ

(XYS20050420)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

ۡۡⷨ

޼

ڡһָⷨ۷СԤɡĴ
мλѷ˿еѿ϶˵ѧ߼ûд󡱡ߵ
ûдûоٳָ֤ĴҲδ绤

ѵĳЩ˵ҵĹ۵㲹䡣


һߵ֤ǲǷ֤

˵ߵһ򵥵ķ֤ӣΪǡ

֤һ֤Ҫ֤p(硰ֱһֱ
ֻһߡ)Ϊ棬ͼٶìp(ֱһֱ
ഹߡ)Ϊ棨ٶpΪ٣ȻɦpƵĽۻ
߼ìܣ硰ڽ֮ʹ180ȡԴ֤pļ
ܳɣpp,ópΪ棬Ӷʹԭpõ֤

֤߼ԭǳķ񶨺ʽɣԱ
ⲿ⣬ԭìܵ⡣ԭ
һߵõǲǷ֤

ȿ֤ǡᱻ򡰹޷ִС
÷֤ķӦǡ򡰹ִС
ǣߵ֤Уûм⣬Ҳûɣ֤
Ƿ֤

ٿֲ֤

ϴûбôͲᱻ(
A)ͳޣ
ϴûбôͲᱻ(ͬ)

һֲ֤ǡᱻʹ÷֤֤
ķӦǡǣǿģ֤
ȴǡϴûбʵⱾҲû
ɵӦá

˵ߵ֤ôҲз֤ĻҪأ
һ̲ʲô֤Ӧá


Ҫתơۡۡ

Զɽԭʦȷʵܵĳһ쿼ˣ
ͬѧеǳͻȻôأͬۡ
ҲӦǡߵ۴ǣǿ
е̽Ѿת⣬еĶԡѧ͡ߵ
˵һ䡰֤߼ȫȷûд
ǡΪʲôûдû֤

еתƵʦĸǰǷìܡ򡰹Ĺ
߼©ҶԴ˲ûиŷ֤ѧߵۼȻ
ΪǴڴģû֤ûд󡱵£²ͨ
֤ʦĻìܰɣѵѧóһȻʦ˵
ìܵġ֤ʦĻìܡ


Ϊʲô˵ߵ۷СԤɡĴ

ڡһⷨѾָߵ֤СԤɡ
ĴΪܼ򵥣ûϸ˵ȻΪƪѾ˵
úˣԡѧҲѾ

ҪһָҵĹ۵һ
Щ䡣

Ƚߵ֤£ĸ()

ϴûбqôͲᱻp(
A)ͳޣM 
ϴûб(r)ôͲᱻq
ϴûб(s)ôͲᱻ(r)

յʱùķɣԭ̵ִδִ̣
һϷܱõ⡣

˵ġԤɡָ治ֲ֪ܳΪġ
ϴûбΪһqpʵǰq
ʵԣʡϴûбôͲᱻ
ʵҲϻûбʵԡ
ϸݹɵļ⣨qpһʵļ⣬δ
֡ԤɡĴ.

һpq沢ζźqһΪ棬
ת̫߳Ϊ沢ζš̫߳ΪһҪõ
첻ᱻqĽۣ벹䡰ϻûбp
һǰᣬܹЧ

1
ϻûбô콫ᱻqp
ϻûбq
ԣ첻ᱻp

֤ѾˡԤɡĴΪһǰᣨ۾ݣ
ϻûбq֪ΪģԤģע⣬ʱ
ΪǰΪһʹõģ1Ľ
ۡ첻ᱻpҲǡȻƳĿɿۣһƳ
ġޡMҲûеõ֤

Ҫر˵ǣϻûбô콫ᱻ
֮Ϊ棨qpԹ¸֮ǰ
ޡΪġڡޡ(M)ûе
֤ļûƵͲܱΪʵˣ

ϻûбôᱻrq

ˣ˵ߵ۷ԤɡĴָǡ1ĵڶǰ
ᡰϻûбq֪Ϊģָ
ϻûбô콫ᱻqpҪǰΪ
档⣬ǵж߶Ϥй߼ڡһ
ⷨδϸֺϸ˵

ǿ԰֤ùʽʾ£

qp ݹɵʵĳ⣩
q       Ԥڵɣ֪Ϊ棩
p       ɿĽۣ
rq  qܳļ⣬ɿҲԤڵɣ
r        Ԥڵɣ֪Ϊ棩
q       ɿĽۣѾγԵѭ֤,qƳq
sr  qܳļ⣬ɿҲԤڵɣ


ϱеㆪΥԭ򣬵Ϊ˰˵͸ֻˡ
ʲô©ӭָ件ӭָ֤ΪʲôԤɴ󡱡


ġڹ(ʦĻ)Ƿ߼ì

ԭǡߵ۴ںδ(ѧ۴)һ
ѾʱȫԲۡ(ʦĻ)Ƿ߼ì
ܡǼȻһЩѳ⣬Ҳ˳̸㿴

һʵʤ۱硣ȻԼʦĻʵ
ǿģûгìܣǾ˵вɿ˷߼ìܡ
һͼִ֤еŬԼǲɹġôо
ףɼһܸӵ⡣ûб﹦ȥֱӿף
Ͳоˡ

ڶָߣѧ۲Ƿ֤ȻҲ̸ȷ
򵥵ķ֤ӣҶԡ÷֤֤
ʦ߼ìܡᷴԱͼ÷֤ȥ֤

PulpEric˵ѧӦģȥʦ˵
ʦĻ߼©ѧҪδ̫ˡҽѧҪ֤
ڶĵȣԡȷʵΥʦ֤Լ
ûΥ֤Ȼȥʦȶʦ޷(Ϊ
һרͷʹĸ)ʦһȥϾѧѧϵ
Žڣǹо۵Ȩרң

(XYS20050420)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

̸ۡϵϷ

 (email: forcetower@hotmail.com)

ڿѧȦ(ѧ)ʲô¶ǰΪ
дһƪģϣҲҪһȻ˷ʱ䡣û뵽ޱ
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ʱչۣѧ֮ѧʡҿЩѧ
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