                      ˿µϣ20050512գ

05.05.12, ӡֵĻʯ𣿡
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ɡ
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ȻƪȴԴɲꡣԴӽй˴Ĵë
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ѧձܣȺ˱Ϊ20شĻʯ֮һ
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֤ݡҪƷһǳ˵ţҪرȷ֤ݣ
һרҵķߵͲרҵű֤ġ

2005.5.4.

Ƽ2005.5.11.

(XYS20050512)

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α顪ڿƼձϵһ

ߣ

415ա29գӦйЭйо֮Ϊѧ족ѧҽ
ƳȻĿѧίԱᡱ The Committee for the Scientific 
Investigation of the Paranormal CSICOPרҴţ
зʺѧCSICOP֯4λרйᡢȻѧ磬ѧרѧ
ڱΧơѧ̽루쳣Ȼ󡱽̸͡ѧαѧ
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ı:αѧ йҪԼġѧ족)ͿƼձҲ
ŵĻ.Ȿƽ,֪ĴĳЩ˵,оλƼ
 2005511տƼձϷǵ.

˵:һʱһЩͨý壬ԡαѧѧ١
һӡ--ʲôѧ졯α١
ĳοʲôغΪбҪԴ
бҪ

˵ҹŵɡαѧ»Թɼԩŵ


͹ˣΪβǾоõһһ׷أ

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ѧΪαΨһ׼ó¾ɵĿ֪ʶض²ų
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ҪλɢʲôҪĳЩͼ˼Ͻйѧ
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Ӻõķ룬ûһЩ

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Ѭա"1976ǽһ֯"ƳȻĿѧίԱᡱ 
The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of the Paranormal
CSICOP,רȥЩ"쳣",ʹЩαѧԭα¶,Ǳ.

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(XYS20050512)

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ߣproblem

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һҹˮ罨ɵʧ

ҷίļƻ2020ΪҹĿҪ
Դܱ뷭һ202011ڶú̿Ĳܣˮװ1.5
ǧߣ൱ÿҪһϿ̡ҹˮ罨ǰŭˮ
繤һžͻûˮ繤̣
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ۺϳú̿Լ80򳵵·һͶ뵽ˣ
൱ڰѱе˿˵ϺٰϺе˿˵ҿ˼
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ӻϽЩˮܵӦһɼȼ5000ú̿Ŷ̼ 
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ˮϲꡢƮٶΧȾȫЧӦ
ʴеĻ࣬ŷȾأЩˮٵŷűȱ
лŷŻҪ༸Ȼܴߺ͸ƿ

ӰȫϽҹú̿ҵѿ7000ˣҿ
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ӶȼٿǧƵĿѿ

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ɵĸʧǿǰ;޴ģͳƺͼݵĿ͹ʵڡ

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Ӱ۷22涨ӦյӰ챨֮
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ʮڣֱ֪ͨ赥λҹŭˮ罨滮
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Ŷˮ罨ĿһϾǽ꣬ν
бͣĽɳϪˮ罨蹤̣䡶Ӱ챨顷2003
9¾Ѿϱһܾ֣δſڿ˵Ŀ
ǡΥѵԼڹ涨ʱͲǡΥ
𣿡ֻԼˣԼȴڷ֮ϣž
ĳЩ˵Ļ߼

ӦһЩνNGOľ

֪ӰҹҪأ˵80%ϵأǷ
ҺͨơϡŷȾϹϵġ鶨顷Ҳ
ǵģֵҹһЩNGOġصȴ⡰ϡģ
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ĻҲֻ˵Ժơˮɳ̬һӰ죬
ӰõķӰ컹򻵵ķӰ졢Ǳ״
ѧϲܵóһͳһʶ㽭°ˮ繤̣㽭ǧ
ǻõķӰĵͣڱ׵Ӹʤ
ռ˹ľЩ֯ǹҹĻĻ
ǵĹصӦԥָϡⲻΪˮ繤̵Ļ
ӰרҵԱͳһʶοһ㻷Ա޴̸Ϊ
ر ϡǹϵġġо弼
׼ġֱʵĻΪʵϡϡҲ๤
ʿȥһЩҵġϡŷţռŷ֤ݣ
ٱΪ۱ⲻҵŷȵȡȴԸʵ
ʵڵġûġĹֻԸԼĹìͷָҴ
ͽĿⲻܲǻ䱳ȷʵƻҾýͼ
ȻǺ͹ĻʿϣĳЩ֯вͼ˭
ܱ֤ĳЩ֯쵼ûأ˵200410·ڱٿ
Ϲˮɳչ̳ϣһλԳν
Ͽˮ繤ũȫТμӻس˷ɻסǼ
ݡӢְ汾ύļ޽Ͽˮ繤̣˵ÿ
컹зòǸṩȫ̷ֵ֧νNGO
ɫ򡱣˭ܹ֤ûα

ԣΪ˶ԻҵΪ˶Ļ֯ӦҪ
ҰȫضĳЩνNGOľ飬Ū
ʲôʵ֯֯α֯ĸͻΧ
ʽԴʽ֧;ȥ򡢶Թڻ֯޿Ҫ͹
ָʾȵȣ֯ҲӦҰȫűӦֻ
Ľȷʵ֤Щ֯ûвαʽ
£֧ṫڵļල£ǲܳһ
ṫ֯ǲЩ֯ǾĳЩĴˡ

һЩν NGOʵƻľҥڵķǷֶ
ṫڣټϻΥѾ͹϶Թҵˮ罨
谭ͳͣԹԴս԰ȫشӰ죬ڴ֣ؽ
ͺӦþ谭ҹˮ罨׷Щš
ƻԴνNGOαʿԼΥĻ
ԱΣ

ڸĸ￪ųڣԡ硱ʱСƽͬ־ʾۣ
̸ֳһμҵĸհԶ͹ǡҹý
ִҪսԻڣȷ¹عԴսԵĴˮ繤̽
뻷ĹϵҲǶҵִĿ顣Ϊǰ
һιڡһҪǷչĽΪҹˮ罨ķչָȷķ


(XYS20050512)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

Ҳ˵ӵʲô
һżߵġʲô(XYS20050506)и

ߣ

ӣһرǿƼ磬˵Ǵ
кܴĿƼ죬кܴͻƣҪΪ
˿վƼٶ½ΪҵȷûеڹӰ
죬йرǴ½Ƽ绹ǺӰ졣ʵϲ˿վ
Ӧô֪ӵЩ

ʲôżߵºԭĿϬŹ
Ӧûһ𰸣ûУǿһåΪӺ
ӡôĶͲԶˡһ棬
һåڹ͵Ǯ˷ֲֹڹˣåֻ
Ǹ¡˵Сӣţ˶֪ô
ġǲǺå

ӵʲôǵĴǰҲǶ
Ա˳ŵûȥ٣տʼҪԼ˼ٶΪԼάȨȥ
٣ǡ⡱٣ĸ㲻ȻǴ٣ôж
֣֮ǲܼӴߵĳͷȣ˵ܼᴦ
ҸΪм٣дˣǶ⻹ġûмٵĿ
⻹Ƕ⣬֮ء˵ٷ˴ƣ
뼴ķҲģҪǷЩǳҲ
뷽֮ͬһβƷļ٣һεĿƼƷļ٣
ͬһҸ㲻ҪҪ֡
شҲҪվĸǶȣĸ

ʲôҿǸöǴҿʼע34꣬
ҪҲĳߣֻһԵĶߡǷ
ҶţҲвҵרҵ򣬻ͲǱϾЩ
治ܴƵġ˵һٷ˶ʮͷⲻܵġ
һ֡һ罻Ӧꡢȱϯһλ£ƽ
ÿ3һSCIҲšʵʱӲ
٣ɣϾӲһȫơ뾡ǲʿ
ֲˮƽܲϼҵǸֲʶϴүֻǰѿ֮һ
һо٣Ҳһѧʡɣ㲻å

λż֣ʵҸо˶Էӡġˣ
һå⣬ʵûʲô˵ģһԵ̬ȣӦ
óŷ֤ݣҪһζáǾû˼ˣ벻ø
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ҪåñҿۣӡġҲ֮Ϊ
åĻȱ֡åʱϣˡ

2005-5-10Ϻ

(XYS20050512)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

ӼſýԡϢԴʹ

ߣ׷ 
20054ż

ȥ1210գеŷϣŷý壬
ѧԺڡɼʱйѧаеʮǸñһԷ
档ˣѾһ¡
 
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20041027գοһšɼʱ
10450ݸߵȽѡй𾴴ѧУа񡷣
ɼʱ104գ׽ййѧУ50ݸߵ
(ȫߵȽ)ʾε鹲ʾ8ݣ
ջЧʾ5ݡλǹ״ζйߵԺУУ
еһй˽ѧ״νǰ10˽ѧѧ
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Żˡй𾴴ѧа(ǰ10λ)͡й𾴴
ѧУа(ǰ10λ)οϢ(ĽųΪ
ͳ塱)ͷϢԴǡɼʱգ»
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Ѷ

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119գձ()ԡѧԺܺΪ
ˡͳ塱Ҳɾȥˡɼʱ롶»ÿյѶ
һͬЩĶȻǡѶ

1111գձǳ𾴵йѧйѧ
ѧԺɾȥˡɼʱϢԴҲǡѶ
Ǻ͡»ÿյѶȫͬġͳ塱

10µ׵12£ŻרϢʽȫ
ڶ౨ֽϡԶﴫʱ򣬶Ľ¶һ;չ

118գѺӴ١רġ׷١ѡй
𾴴ѧУСš״¶һšҳ
νɼʱӢԭĵ﷨϶һš
½ˡѧԺԺڱĹЦѧԺƭ
֤ݡָ佱50ݸߵȽˡе©⣬
ɼʱԱʵõɼʱԱJanette 
DeanĴ𸴣ĳһεйѧļӿ֣
ȷһѹ棬ɡʱ߻κμ߸ݵõ
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118գձġʱñפɼ
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1126գ걨ġϢɼʱ֤ʵ
й𾴴ѧаǹ桷ͬͨɼʱ沿Ա
ԼݸߵȽйʿʵ֤ʵһš

ⲿıֽҲֱͨɼʱ沿ͼ
ʵóһŵĽۡ

ҲãѧԺվϡתءġй걨ר
104աɼʱľֲɨͼƬӸͼƬɼν񽱡
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ֱ1210գνй𾴴ѧУаǸ
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ýϢԴ

ʹûعⳡ־磬еýԷΪֱ࣬Ϊ
ߡߺͽ¶ߡýȽϣԷһȤ
ϢԴʹϴྶͥͻϢԴϢԴ¶ߺʵ
ϢԴϢԴʹΪʲô?һͼŵĲкιϵ?
ýӦ¼ȡʲôѵ?ǱҪֵ̽⡣

1.ͻϢԴ

ѧԺ¼ʼٸڿѾûʡ
ѧԺڡɼʱ˹Ժ󣬳תð䡶ɼʱ
űԴﵽĿġܱѧԺ
Ҫý塣οǹȱüŵĴͳý壬Ȼ
޷϶οѧԺıߡʵͬ1020գ
У͸ʦѧѧԺվѿţݺͺ
ġοһվעϢԴΪɼʱԿ϶ǣ
׫ŵǿˡɼʱѧԺڡɼʱ
ϵǹĿģԭҲΪպáɼʱӡ

ͻϢԴˡɼʱһ󱨵Ĺڴ
УԿƵĵͱ֮һǶϢԴѡ񡣸ݶ
һյഫжϣƺţȷԴҪ
ϢĿŶȡѡЧϢԴ˵Լ۵ԼƷ
ʵǲ֤ʲϱʾ߿ŶȵҪɡ(C.I.Hovland)
Τ˹(W.Weiss)һʵ飬ʹͬϢһЩˣǣ
ЩϢԸ߿ŶԴһЩˣǣЩϢԵͿ
Դ֣߿ŶԴϢȷĸı䡣
ѧԺҪԡɼʱΪƶԹĳطСΪϢԴ
ԭ

⣬ѧԺ׫һеѡ֯50ݸߵȽ
ˡҲòȨð߿ŶԴѧһ
šĸָĸ˻֯ŵ
֮һרҵԣרҵһָߵרݡרҵʹ
ǰרҵȨԡۻΤ˹оԴŶȱ׼ʱҲͬΪרҵ
Ȩ(expertness)Ҫ׼֮һͨ 50ݸߵȽ
ˡһ˵Ļѡ𾴴ѧУɾרҵȨ
ԡѡĻһ̶˹һЩ˳
 
2.ϢԴ
 
ֻһҵλڴŵý嶼ǡ
ߡֻ˼ţû졣¼У»ÿյ
Ѷձ()ձȶԳΪߡȽ⼸
ýıԷһͬ㣺ǶȥԴԡѶΪ
ͷ෴ǾڲᡶɼʱЩýУ
ŶԡԲšĿ֡

Ϊʲôߺ߶ϢԴĴ˴?ԭ
λòͬЩ߶ǹڴͳý壬ȷԼķԭ
ţתšѧϢΪϢݵĲ㼶Խ٣ʧ
ԽСйýѧĽڶԣýűͱ
ԭ͵һϢĲɼ¹ԽűȨλ
ڿԭǱʶ£ܶýȥŵϢԴ
ͷɡѶ

ΪôŵĸԭΪ߱༭ѡ
ŵı׼ֵʵ壬ΪڵҪ
ýԸӯĽ죬һЩýЧ;ЧŴֻҪ
ڣʹɵҲϲ󡣺ӶſɿԵˣԭţ
ϢԴ󷢼ţ֮еˡ

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Դǡο?йýǸҵվûԲ
ȨǾʧȥͨԭýӰĿܣǱ
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˹(Danielian & Reese)ܽоӰý̵һ֧Ҫ
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(intermedia agenda setting)忴ӡˢỵ́
෴޵һý壬ǹߵȨý壬˾и߶ȡɶ
ԡļ֮ýġŵơЧӦǷ
ϵй𾴴ѧУаһο»
Ѻȸվ׷תأͳýΪý
̡
 
3.¶ߺʵϢԴ
 
˸˵ǣڶýڼǰ׷ϵͬʱһЩж
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ϢԴ

ӡŵ顷ߵҪҪɵľ񣺡߱Ҫл
һеĽ̬Ⱥʹɳʵ׵Ĺ硣ڡԺ֪ʶ
ϢԴһ˵ṩʵԽʣìԽУʵԽ
ͣԽи߶ȵлȤζԽҪ侲ʱ򣬸Ҫʵ
Ϣĺʵ档

һǶϢߵĺʵڱУǶԡɼʱĺʵ
жǡ߿ŶԴǡͿŶԴһ⻹
Щƭ󱨼ŵýϢԴĺʵֹܾڴˡŻҪжϡ
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Ǻⱨֽڹ޷»硢ձĹҼý
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ݲġɼʱӶ֤ʵһϢʹûפߣѵ
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һԷѹ档

ڶǶűĺʵУͻƿھ
50ݸߵȽˡڼݿв˾5
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Чʣ칦ܿǰ첻ġࡣ֮⣬ֻҪ濴ν
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ʹûϢԴкʵƾʶҲܸоһ
šνԣָ˼άû˼άͻȻʵҲ
ϵ֮ڵϵ޷˽⡱˹һ
ѧôܽйѧаǰʮУڶ
λ廪ѧУ֮ǰ?ΪʲôŵͻˡѧԺû
ѧУ?

¶ŵֵᳫнǿżֵ(ͻԺ쳣)
ҳŴǷһֱʽʱ¶ýϳֵļţ
չһжƷ͵һ֡˫Ӯ

(ߵλйýѧŴѧԺ)

עͣ
 
٢෽ӣѧԺƭֵ֤ݡ
http://it.sohu.com/s2004/fanyixueyuan.shtml.

ڢɡ֡Сղķ˹̹£ۣԴӦá
181263ҳĳ2000
 
ѧǵ䡷73ҳ,ձ1992
 
ܵ˞ԞԣϢԴųš,д20039
 
ݳźԷĳ֡żߡ20022
 
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(XYS20050512)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

һҩҩЧҡҴ

ߣ˹

쿴ļʱű, ֪һҩ˳.

, Ҫ򼰷"Ч" ҩҩ
""  "ȱ" ҽʹ, п𺦸.

ϲһЧҵķλ---ҽҩоԺ񲡻
ĵҳ:

http://www.dzmy.com/mymy/hdht/999sm/

µĴ:

"Ŀҽҩصϵḻҽʵ׿Խٴ
Чҽѧ֣֮Ľҵҽѧķչ˾޴
סǧвҩľЧҡϵҩĵΪҽ
ʧߡԻͣ"

ǴԲ, ź.

˶ҩƫ, ƴ˺Ⱥ֮, Ӧϳ.

:
ʱ  ʱ

ͣЧ[11:38]

2005/05/12

Ҫ򼰷ʳһΪЧҡгҩò
Ʒҩɷݣá

òƷҩɷݡȱມҽҩҽ
ʹá

򾲼ȱມƶ־񲡡»˯
ѣȱມ𺦸ࡣ

ڸһڸιĸø漰һ
ʮһʿʧ߶ôڵعõгҩδȷ˲ƷǷ
¸ʿι

ûдгҩ;ļ¼֪ڵйصִ


ʹáЧҡӦֹͣãвʣӦҽ

ӦƷٻѲƷڰ칫ʱ佻λھϲٰʮ
Ź¥ҩ񲿰´

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(XYS20050512)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

д

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˿ʮһŴһء(XYS20050511)ǿˡ
ձǰ2003.4.7һЦ˴۽ǣ
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һģף
http://news.163.com/05/0510/17/1JDJ7MRV00011247.html澹Ȼ뱱
ձƪһֲϸСһǴĳɾ
Ŵŵȱ˷ǳҪŵĽ֣δ뵽ϣһ
ǰԭᵽĹԱͼǵȡҲȥˡ򣬡աһ˵
ˣΪ˵ǡͼǵȡ¶ġԭдôס

(XYS20050512)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

ѱ˵

ߣһ

ˡѧߡλԳǴѧʦԳҲѧߵˣ
̾λǴѧʦҵ߼۹֮ǳҾ
ǴѧʦѧˡҾ߼ɣ

1.ȥʶ̬Ľǿպںž˵ģҪӦĻƣ
Ǵѧҵ£ѧУί𣬶»Ḻ𡣶ν
ȡ˵ƽȹϵ̸ĸ˵߼ߵѵͨ
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һĸĸӦӸֻϵĸĸȥʵ֣˵ÿһ
ȥУӴЩѧʦ5ϣУͲܽӴ
еˣѧƽˣ֮ƽˣʶ̬ĽԶˡ

2.ҵλڲҵǰ»ԼĹɣֶͨȷЩ
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ϴѧȨѧѧʹܹԼѧҵڡ
ѧߡУ˰ĹҹѧӦṩĹƷ
Ϊ˰ṩһЩѻ۷񡣡ôҪ⣺һ
ѧ񲻳𣿶⡰һЩǶ٣һЩ˭
ѧߡ⡰һЩһͲƽȣǸߵȽ
⣬ҲӰ쵽ѧڵʽ⡣ȷֲ졢ԡһ
ЩṩѽķӦǲҵǰµĽѧƶȡ

ѧԼڵĴѧУ칫ҼζУ֮
Ҳȥˡһ䣬뵽ͷʹҽͷʹҽţΪߵȽ
ǡƽȣֵȼظ֮Ҫ֪Ҫĵȼ
Ҫģ롰ƽȡһҪ򵥵شϵ߼ȥ⡣
ϲѧ͹¸֮Թ¸ڣֹͨҵ
͹ȥӦԣϴѧҲһͨҪѧȥӦԡ

һΪһĸ﷽ȫȷģǸ߿չ
ƺ͹ͬɡֻеľϸûϸѡֻǡѧߡ
ûܹȫ⣬ץһͺ˵ѧߡһȻҪ
һԺд²Ҫںע**ѧ ˾
ͬѰҪͶ壨Ҫgoogleȥ飩ǿЦ֮
ѧҲûʲôͬѰֻöѣοһԼ
ֺӰԼ۵ӰҲûʲôסִɵ
Ҳһ˵£λѧߡǲǳѹ̫ã
ʲô˳ۣ㻹ʸ̸ʲôɡ

ӡѧߡϣҿҹܶฯġ˼άƫȴԾ
䵱˼ָϡʦЩ޷Ϳŵ۹ȥԴʵ
е⡣Գվڹҡĸ߶ȣһ⣬ֻǿԼ
ӼͷˣǱнѧѶ˵ˡ

(XYS20050512)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.freedns.us)

̩ʿйŮΪ߲ϧ

ο2005-05-12

    23ййﶭ÷룩ǰֻ1.45סȥ6£
һκҽ˫ȣϥĹͷǶֶ
һܰѸ̶ֶס

ڱһҽԺĲ˵еʹȱ䳤
µҹҹ÷ų޷ʹࡣΪ˫ȣҽ
ҪšװõťҲ˵˿ڽҪϵʱ
װǿнٴʹ¹ϳ϶Ⱦһһ
ر䳤ˣ

÷ڵѽӽ1.6סܵΪֹȥ
Ǯ൱6000ӢԼ11400ԪҪ6ʱ뿪
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ֵõġ϶԰ӴںܶƫһЩ˾ֻΪӰͲƸ㡣
ӰѶѡ

йĵϣ㳣һЩߵĹ棬νߵ
άزҲܴ󣬺Ͷ÷һİž޴ʹ࣬
Ѿǧˡ÷˵ΪŽġһҽ
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÷˵18£ҽ·ܲĺΣ룩ھ
ӪҽԺѾһˣʵ1996ͿʼߡĽڱʾ
Ⱥԭȹȫһǵı׼ܰ
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