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07.03.23, ӡ³Ѹı˶ҽĿ𣿡
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2007-3-22 

(XYS20070323)

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ѼŪӵġФ߷ӡЭͳһо顱



ϸһ顰Ф߷ӡЭͳһо顱
ǧ֣һ֣裡

Ƿ٣ȫֻץصɡ

ʲôص㣿ص1ФǷͬʱСȫְְ
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У2ѣΪʹϡý綨1
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ڵ1㣬ٷ浽ŦԼѧҽѧԺŦԼѧҽѧԺԺ
Фȫְְ˵ɣ

ڵ3㣬ֻҪФ2005914ǰĹڿӢ
ƪȻҸ׶԰СһУ

ڡʹϡý綨Ե2㲻ҲգֻҪ13
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䡰о顱оǰѼ򵥵Ķ̫ӣСˮ㡱֮
ӡȻг涨д֮δȷϣ
һ¡桱͡ĹںΪڿͱá
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ФʿʿΪأ

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Ф߷ӡЭͳһои

ߣŷѵ

óóڶꡣ

ҿûо÷ʹáԴޡθԼð
Ϸȴ󵼹ΪФְġѧ۵١
Ѿ¶ФƷ۵ؽͣФɾ
ᵼФʵ

ΪееФڵԽԽΰ
ͬʱҲԽԽϲԵضФڲ⣬ҲԡФϷ
ФڵķֵĴ̾йѧľӢ-----
ФڣФڽпԺԺʿУ

иѶͬУһ֧Фڰɣ
ΪӲ֪йиФڣҾǷФڳģ
ФӦøлǷӡ 

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СһоŪļ

Ƴ

ڸ㵷ҵģϾ˿ȴɶԺ
Сһо飻ұҵҲйȨΪģ¿˸һ
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֮۲죬ڻ㷨ٵʱǰ۾˷Ժʱڵȷ˺ܴ
ߣȻеҪ㷨ޣٹѹ
ԣǴףҲֻܽܡǣг
¹طɵϣǲòëáˮƽޣ
֮λָ

СһһΪԺŪ˼⣺

1  ⡣

С״Ʊı绪ŷλԭСΪ
ԼȨֺʣλǲʸأڳ걾
ʵԺ󣬷ԺоתˡȨϣƺر
λ״еĿɡӺСȨżλԭ
ɢλӺСȨݵżǩǶݵȷ
ϱʣǲȷλʵʩȨΪأӺ
СȨݵź̩˹˾תȻ־ĲPROPHET˾
˽ʵźһ֮²Ϊ֪Ϥ
ʵڮٵԴǣԺ಻ΪȨѾ֮λ
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ֱ仯ûϵĹ⡣ΪȨΪٸӣ
ѵʵڮٱżڵ֮ǰͬʶĶ͵
֡żݣ±Ȩ𡣼ڮٵΪȷɣ
ȴܳȨΪԺ˵ˡ⳥˵塱ǣ
жǻȨΪĻ϶ι⣻ⷨԺ
һֱرܵǣλΪȱȨΪĹҪ޷ȨΪ

2  

ԺΪλС조١Ľ۱źǩǰ
߼ֶ֧СķмԺǣ绪ŷ
ڱ֮ǰжϣϹѰжϵݡΪ
жϵ߼ϵʣڶ֮ǰĺϷԽ鲢
ΥƲáλС조١жϣСΪ
ʵڮٽϡǶλ֮ǰжǲǺϺר
ҵ֪ʶˮƽжϡûйʵ϶֮λ
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ǺϺרҵ֪ʶˮƽġλǸרҵԱǰж
֪ʶˮƽʱĻӦġλڵʱһ
úֶκ󣨵ȻǵԼ֤óСٵĽۣôʹ
ж϶֤ǴģҲȨΪΪɲҪ
һֶȥ׷޿ɱ粵ռԺΪ
϶һǳ׼ȷĽ۶ܽкƲϵĳôѧ
ܽСʵϣ廯ⷨҲΥɾġԣ
λжǻһƲôСķм
ǳбҪġ

3  ԭ

編Ժо˵Ϲнֹô˺Ʒ
ǰۡӦע⵽ӦǡϹСǿܿ
λҲԼٽѧƷ£ǣ걨
֮ͬⲢܴС조١жʵΪǸ
ûз϶ֻе֮ϵ

(XYS20070323)

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ͬһƪĵߣ



ĴѧС죬ݴѧGeorge Wu, ͬΪһƪ
NATUREĵߣ·УȻͬ

George Wu⵽ѧУϳ⣬˹Ǹְ񱻳㶪
˷롣

йСֱ׳ѽ¶߸浽Ժ(Ҳ㷨ԺĻ)
ءӮ˹˾ǰӻ٣񵼵ֱ֮ơ

ԱУͬһѧ¼̬ȣ֪Ϊй13˳
Ⱦִѧشˡ

θ籦Ϊξ޶ʽȥɹС죬Фκȫ
ЩڹڵĲ֪ԭˡ

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ϴѧĹ˹Ⱥ̧ͷ

  ɽ

ϵִ˷ϴѧĴԺʿ˴УȻ̩ɽ
ҲƺΪѾֲˡ

˴УȻĲѾյ˺ܺõĳЧⲻ䲿޲Ѿ
ʼֱ׷иϳ֮ơϴѧѧԺϵԼϴѧ
Ѿ⣬ȶϴѧ˻ߵԼΪѧҪЧ
ࡣ

һе㵣ģǵڰձҲԻ߸¼
ǵĴ᲻ḯʴ˴УĽղ֮أ

ձкձ37շдᣬԱڵһԱֵó
ţÿŵȱֽ¶ڵͷл
糤ҰƸֳСТԱ糤Լе
ο۳5¹ʵ30%ɱίԱְ3¹ʵ30%
ٸίԱ110%ĹʡԱȹ˴У⼸ձ̫ԩˡ

һԩģɽűίԱСֹ㣬Ϊֵ
¶2007220ձƸŷ糤
־񣨴൱ڸ³Ϊȡۣ˾Ӷߣûʵ
Ȩܱ۳3¹ʵ30%רͣ١糤
ԻϷԼ糤ڼ䣬е쵼ζȥ³汨
ְ֮

--------ʵ̫ԩˣ

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йѧܼԲ 



0 

йѧѾĹ㷺ӡѧֱΣ
ѧĴ·չ˺ҹжĿдģ˹
ұͶ޵ĿоѣҲܻʹڶѧоĳ
ܵ˴ѧֱܽӵʵ½͹ۺϾ½
"йܷվֱͿƼ֧ţ"ձ 2001516
գֵ̽йѧܵ󡢸ԴԲߡ

1 йѧ

1.1  Ȩѧ 

νȨѧָǲָУԼУеĲֵԱͨȨѰ
ȡѧλͨȡѧλȡ档
ҲͨѧλѧȨѰȡľ档磬ݱ
ĳУ"Уͳɹ걨13ҺʡмĿл
еͱ걨ĿѧУУĿ"

[1]人ѧѧϵâ֡λʡѧ
19941998ɹеĸ"У
͸ίְȨѧѧһһһ
졢ᵳӪ˽Ϸĳ磬ںʡѧ˼ӵӰ졣"
ͬϣÿһεĲʿѧλѧȨѰļ
б֣òҶݡ걨֮һԣܵδسɹ
ܵضɹЩѧУΪ걨һʿͶľϰơ
ѿ¸ٸУл˸߲ɲΪø߼ְƻ
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Ϣӡ񡢻еѧѧѧľͨ
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[2]ĳЩУ˳ƾĳ󣨡й20048
25յ2棩⣬УУ쵼ٵȫԵרҵ
ѧ쵼ְ񣬶ЩְͨڲϷָֻõġԺУ
ѧίԱξУԺΣѾΪһֹ

1.2 ѧ

ѧҪΪ¼棺1гɹ٣纺оCPU½
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صѧ٣ԭѧԽ˵ĿгɹͳԼ£ 2
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һֿĿ걨ڲ̶ͬȵ٣Ŀ߳Աѧλְ
Ƶ١ȻѧĿҪ˶ʿоɵģĿе߱
ϰѧͷ3ѧ٣беѧ
ѧͷΡѧ߰θѧѧλѾֲ˶ʿ˶
ʿʿͲʿ4ѧĭһѾΪѧƵһ
ۣ˵ķʽֱ˵ģʦսڵһ
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оɹеĳɹȻö֮ν"ר"̲ġͳƣ
ѳ 1600 ಿйѧʷͼղص˼ѧԭһ
Ĳǧÿ30ಿ [3]Ķ5
Ȼĵվ㣬磺 http://www.lw99.com/ ȣ
google""Եõ338Цlw99վҳϾ
Ȼ"ȽԽѧϰĵ"Ĺ档ϮѾӽ
ҵʽȡ֮"""ճ"ĲڸУԼĳ
磬ĳЩУ쵼ҪְƣñУ磬νñУ
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൱һѧ߲""""""ûвοףûн
עβע˵оͳɹԼʹ"""
һ""հ""쵼о""վѧǰ" 

2 ѧܵĸԴ

2.1 ٱλѧȱԡ

ٱλѧʧֱӵ˴󲿷"Ȩѧ"ѧܡйǧ
ʵеĶǹٱλͳơȻ˵й֮ййһ
ֱ""˼룬ϵʶȱʧʵʹУ
ϸѾΪй˵һּʶеĹΪ͵ģ
ʽǣ쵼᲼á¼ִУǣȺȺС
ͷִСÿһ㵥λϵƹλ
ԴȨϵķʵŵȣУУд
ƹȫУѧԴ񴦳ƹȫУĽѧԴڴƹȫУĹ
ʲԴ´ƹȫУ˲ԴƹǷ¼ȡ
ɱȨԺϵԺƹܱԺϵв¡ѧ
дȨеЩȨڵжܹΪѰеʱ統
Ȩ׾ٵصϽڣϲƾЩȨڹ
ûȨͨеĻȨӶ׾ٵؽи
ѧԴĽ˵ҸֿĿ󡢹Ҹֿгɹ
󡢲ʿȵȡЩ޷ǲЩĸУĳ֮
ĹϷֺͽףÿβ˵һιϷֹʲʢ񻶡
˵ʡСУڲĿĿгɹ޷ǹĿ
С档ЩǸУʦĬϵϷ򡣶һϷУ
ѧʧ 

ֳȵϷֱѧĲƽԣֱʹͨ
ʦòĿоνѧأвֱ
ĵ·ͨĵ·"ɳΪѧƴͷ"ѧ
ƾһ̶ϵ¢ԣƻѧоþеĹƽ [4] ֱӵ
ѧˮ׼½

2.2         ҶԽͶĲ

ȨѧƾѧշѵһԴ
ҶԿкͽͶ벻㡣1998꣬Ͷռ GDP Ϊ
6.43%ŲΪ 6.9%ձΪ4.72%ҹ2000ֻ 2.87%޵
ͶúܴһֻͶ뵽ٲصУڿͶϣ̨
Ϊ2.5%3% ҹ1%ԶһЩ

ȫдѧʵеί쵼µУƣаѧѵĸ
ơһѧһСᣬеĽʦҪҺڣʦҪ򷿣
ϵĽʦҪĽʦҪչˣͻ׵ĽʦҪҪһ
ѧҪչˣƶѧľҪеһжҪǮÿ
ѧУͶνǱˮн޼¡УȫݹҲѧУ
ѣѧУܹתУǲòԽ취ΪѧУľ
ⱼֲҽѵĲ㡣ȫ󲿷ִѧУһ
УרѧУĵҵ߸ѧУѵĴաûһѧУ
ҪšѧУǾô󳱳µһ龻һ龻
ҲھõѹȲòԼꡣˣѧԴѰ⡢ѧԴ
ѰԼнԴ˽гЩҲֱӵ
һȨѧ׵ĸܡ־治ı䣬ȫרԺУУǿл
쵼Ƕ֮ڸУͿлѧȨ׵ѧ
ѧܾͺѵõơ

2.3         Ƶĳ

1.2۹ѧٵҪԭ
ǵƳ⡣

һѧĿˮƽǺѧĿгɹڹ
ϵϿɶȣѧѧڹѧӳ̶ȣ
ͳѧжٸʿ˶ʿ㡢жٸ
ҼлػʡмصѧƵȵȣ֮һȫϵͳ
һλʦĿˮƽǺýʦѧӰ͵λ߸ýʦ
ѧӳ̶ȣǸýʦĵ׷
ΪйУѧˮ׼ҪֶΡΪҪ
ǣҶԸУľͶϵ 211
211̵ĸУҾӦͶ롣࣬˹Ҽ
أʡмصѧƣҲӦͶ롣Ŀǰȫ̿ĸУƽ
ѧϵҲͬˣеĿĿϣʦı
ʼǡѧĿѧ¼ȵȡЩνӲָ겻ܴﵽ׼
ʹˮƽٸҲͶԵıֱӴĺȫ
УԱ٣ûбαʼǵĲαʼǡλڵԼ
ɹҲҪдɱαʼǣûнѧּ¼Ĳѧ֡У
ͨ 

ǵϵеһҪҲֱӵѧܡǾѧˮƽ
ѧƵĹҹΪʲôôУԲʿ걨֪֮ͣ
һִ˲ƣΪʿѧУۺˮƽҹʿ
ĿҹʿصѧƵĽҹЩҹıǹҵ
Ͷ롣ûвʿ㣬ѧУۺˮƽŲϺţûвʿ㣬
ĿԻãûвʿ㣬ͱȻлػصѧԵ˵
ĿĹһĵĹĿ걨ǲͨ
ĿԾ΢΢ 

ϵ֮£У쵼ʦ"߲"ǲܵġΪ
ֻи߲걨ʿ㣬걨һأ걨صѧƣ
ȡͶ롣ҲǸУ쵼ǲԶΪ֮֮١Ϊ˲ѧУ
˽ʦÿ귢ĵѹ֮£ʲôġ
ǰԵĿ 

3 볹ѧ

ѧһĺ;֪ʶһĴԺͼ
һĺ;ҲˣһĴԺͼ
Ϯˣ彫ɱضΪӵ塣Ȼйѧ
⻹ûصһ̶ȣǾָܵĲӡ
й֪ʶӵعעѧܵĿԶԲߡ 

3.1 ٱλĹϵѧоԶԡ

ٱλĹϵһ¾Ҫת쵼Ŵ"
"ɫת""Ľɫҽʡнί͸У
쵼šѧѧͬʱ߽ɫѧ߽ɫ뿪
ž˶ԱͲԱһ󡣹߾רҵѧ۹
׼뱾йصѧۻֿĿְȡ
ָ""ǲμӸͱκĿ磬λڼ䲻
ְ걨ͿĿ걨 

Ͼѧѧ൱Ķԣѧоܵ
ȨӰ죬ѧ"ѧǳأǶȨ""й
ѧƼɹҪӴƼͶ룬߶ѧѧ" [5] ѧ
滮ĿѧƵĽѧɹҪѧ
͹ԱĸԤһеķѧѧίԱ۾ͬ
ʱʵѧίԱѧ߻ƶȣѧίԱмɲĽڣν"ѧ"
óֻгѧѧԳֵɺͶѧо
͹ҸġʵԵĹסѧоӭ
ҪĻȭţÿãѧҲȻ֮ 

3.2  ϸִоƶȣӴҶԸУͿеͶ룬


нпԵıǸУͿлκθܶȨϵ
ȨšӪҵĹ㡣һȨҪͨн
൱ѶȡΪ޵"н"Щҵõ̫
УͿлĸһҪýλȥȡٵľ桢
ҪͻµߵġŤȨܡֱŤȨֻҪ
֧ţܻع鵽ᴫͳ¼ֵѧҲܵõ
Ϊ󲿷ṫΪֵλ޵ľõλΪһ
˷ñλȡ޵ľ档 

ΣҹʵеǾֻӦðСѧͳеĻ
оӦھķΧ֮ڡкʹѧѾ
֮ڣйʷȴһֱʵоⲻϷ
ͬʱҲȡоſԼܴһʾø
ЩʽȫԲֻУͶĲֲ㡣 

ԿǷɶԿ˽ѧУѧУƣ
顣ǰ廪ྩϺһЩѧУ̻ѧУΪй
˴˲ţа๲˸ߣǲҪѧ
˰ѧǹҵĽ޺ 

3.3  ѧ

ڿѧϵļֵԼѧչʷκοѧ
ļֵУˣǵƱ
ϵͳ޷˵תƵϵͳֶֻΡ
磬ڽѧˮƽϣϸʡŵʡ׼ȵֶξͿ
ˮƽһѧߵĿˮƽҲƴĻ
׼ϿνҪгɹѧӰ죬ڹѧӰ
졣 

⻨ǮĻ֮Чʩǲ
̣ΡһȽϺòı׼ķͬ
רҵĵʣЩڷӦų⣬
μӹѧ顢ѧⱨ桢ѧ뽲
ѧȣһѧѧѧӰ͵λЩǱȵ
Ҫʵڿеĺ׼Ȼڴѧ뽲ѧҲиܵСȦ
ڵĻ룩ѽѧ޶ڹʽͬʱѧ
ڼලҲں̶ܴܹƿܲĽѧܡ⣬ѧ߱
ΪѧıίҲǺѧѧˮƽѧӰء 

Ϊ˱κѧλ㡢ĿͻĿеĸܣԲù
İ취вͱĵλ˶빫һ緢
Ľ⣩ΪҪѡĵλ͸˵ĲҲҪ
ϵĵλ˲Ϲ󣬹ٱһ٣һƱ
һڲ걨ͬĿĳͷ 

ѧۻƲǿ͹۵ġģͬʱҲġѧͨе
ǣһѧһҷѧˣ΢ĳϮ١
ٵȣѧֹҲûκѧУƸֻƲô
ʩѧĭ֮ѧܲܵõơ 

------------------------------------------------------------------

[1] http://xys.dxiong.com/xys/ebooks/others/science/dajia7/yuanshi24.txt

[2] http://xys.dxiong.com/xys/ebooks/others/science/dajia7/dzkj3.txt 

[3] http://www.investchina.com.cn/chinese/zhuanti/xxsb/864747.htm 

[4] ѧоһҪǲͬо֮ѧ¢ںܴ
ƻѧ

[5]ȫ2006йѧҪʲôȫ
̸¼Ļ㱨20065 8գӴ

(XYS20070323)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

֮ԷɵĻ

    http://blog.sina.com.cn/jiliangtian

һǰ

ֻ֮ʱ̳ŨܡصĻ

˶Уǻ֮һ֡Ψԡʷۡ
ԽԽáϧʱ⣬ЦϴȻйϴ
֮֡ҪȡɡȡĵһµԻԵ¹ۡ
ͬʱǻҪйĴͳԵ¡ΪйĴͳԵ£
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ƩɡšΪйԹŮ˲̸ֻ⣬̸ˣ
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ǿԺ׵ϵ20064µġͭ¼һɷ
ԼӱԼͨ飬ҹӺ˳ǧֵQQԻ
鴥˺ܶ˵ĵ񾭡ڶࡰδʵ֤
£׷ɱԼΪ¼ͷ׸λɷ
ƷַŮ֪߳ܡ20056£
ݴ򹤵Ĺ񹤣á˽̡ڵͨߣһǣ200611
29շġʾڡνʾڵķʽŮοͣ
Χ߹ƽкá

һϵ¼ķʹȥһˮƽ˼ǳԵģЩ
ıֵĶڷ쭡Щ쭵ļֵĶ
ǴʯͷĳģԣڡʥǵġĻ
ЩĻŲʷϵ䣬û뵽ȥ
ôаŶִԻԵ¹۱Ե̫ˣ

ȻһʱỹԻԵ¹ۣعͷڵ
ĻŲ쭵ļֵĶһ¹֪µоҲһ
ֵóԵ顣ְɣƪԸ͡ӳǽ
ʷ֤͸һ£йĴͳĻУ̵Ӱµ
ɡͬʱһҪڵŲһУ˳һ½
йĲԷɡ

ӰµԷ[1]

йŴǹһס̡̡֡͸
ÿһ䡣׾̣ŮǡҲǡ
ŮҪδ޴Ӹȼ޴ӷ򡱣ɥĴ[2]ɴ
Կɡ̴ڷŮ˵ĵλ쳣
ƽȵġ

һŮˣδʱļеǺԵġȨƶȵ
޺ǡȨƶȡ֡Ȩ-ȨĹ£
ŮһУν˸񡱣Ϊǵġ˸ѾڷƼɡ
ûܽȨҲû֪ʶ˽ƲûоȨ
־ֻܾڴĵλ

Ů˸ɥʧλĸƺǸе㡣
ƶˡ岻ȡ[3]߳[4]ʹûоȨŮ˲ܰ
Ϊ˱һԼ¡լʺǸŮˡȥ
[5]ıϣǣŮˡӳǽ¶ǵİ
ȫޡɼǶֳǶôĹУ

ӳǽ鷢ʱڣôӻ̡ܵеһ
̵̷ֽ[6]Ϊڡ塷ʮУԡ̡
ĽǣҲӸƣıաɼν̡
ԸҸŮϵļһֲ˵̷ʹͨ
ˡ˵ӡ[7]

ӳǽ鷢سôӵ˭ɱ
Ϊڡʷǡʼʱ͡ţ

Ӷޣꡣ⣬ֹŮϡΪjɱ֮


ɼԷ߶˽سͿʼˡң벻ǣ
س˽׽ٸٱͨ顣[8]

˺ĵ۶ĳϳ̣ȴΨˡ̡
ԸŮ[9]

ӳǽ·κʱڣŮ˵ն̣
ʱҪȥ塱Ϊڡκ顤̷й涨

Ů񽻣ͬն̣ȥ壬Ů

峯Ϸϳ˶ʩӹ̣ȻŮȴһʡ[10]

ƳѾϳˣŮ˷Ĵӹ̱ͽ̣ⲻ
˵һӡʱ򡰳ǽظ۾Ϳ̡
δģôҪһĴΣѻ飬Ҫ꣬Ϊ
顤ɡϹ涨

ߣͽһ룻зߣͽꡣ

ԻͼߣŮͽһ룻зߣͽꡣȡ

ͬһʡͬһΪͬһԵ˵ȴͬɼڹŴ
з߷޷߷ʵǡӵĲ֪߳ܡҪ
áءسһͨߵ׽[11]ӵġ
ǽѹҪɷ򷸼飬ȴ顣

ӳǽ·ʮôŮ˵ǡ̡
ﲻʮķɹ涨

ǣͼߣӸ˲گԻ䷸ͼߣ׼
ƶϣﲻʷһʮߣ

γƳɷԷͨŮ˵Ĵǰ
Ƴһ

ӡڽ𳯡ǽΪܻסԣøͷ
Լ̡[12]

ӳǽ鷢Ԫظ۾ͿԸŮ̡
ʱ̷ͽ̱[13]ΪʹŮ֪ʲôС߳ܡס
ŮʱҪѹ·Ůٷɷɹ


ͼߣʮߣзߣʮߡȥ̡ٷߣӶȣ
Ԫʷ̷־ǡ

ԪһɫǣĹ涨ķʽ׽飨Ԫ¡
̲ߡ顤ݼ顰ͨ׽˾ȵǣʱķɻ
׽鵱ɱ벻ͨǣ׽Ҫ
׽˫ɱ鶼Ҫɱ˫ƨɾҪ塣[14]

ӳǽ鷢̵ı֡ѧѾΪ
ʱʶ̬ѧġ¾塱ʼڷзáʱԷ
ĳͷʼˡɹ涨

ͼ飬ȰʮзȾʮɺϱࡤɡ顷

߱Ԫతȡһ֡顱ν顱
ڡԡϵĽΪ鸾Ӽͨ飬η
֪޳ӣŮһ[15]԰ڵ۹ȥ֪顱ʵ
ȻȥݿΪĿŵ죬Ŀ֮
ȥݿʵˡη֪޳ӡˣǵ顱
һġͨ顱ʵǡӰӵİܻס
Ĳ֪߳ܡҲͷáء

ԪһԷ鸾ŮĳͷҲǡȥ̡[16]ɹ涨

举˷Ӧߣȥ̣ﵥ¾ɺϱࡤ
ɡֻ˷

Ԫһǣ׽飬׽鵱ȫɱ
Ҳɱһɺϱࡤɡɱ򡷣
Ԫͨķɱܲ˵ӵġӵķˡΰ
õĴͳĻ

ɹ涨鸾ŮţҲˣ˭ԣ
򣬷Ҫطɺϱࡤɡ顷ע
˵Ϊڡ̡ǡΥ

һǣʼɻ涨ˣŮδ黳Уô϶
飬ҷɲ˵˭ǣֻܡ鸾Уֻ
ͷеĸŮɣġδ衱Ҫù

ͨ鷢峯ͼ顢Ĵһ
ɡ顷涨

ͼ飬ȰʮзߣȾʮߣ޷з򣩣һ١

׽ȨڵɱɱʱҪ
ɱõõҪƨ[17]鸾Ůܷ֮󣬴ӷҲ
ԣǲ򡣣ɡɱ򡷣δ黳е
ŮĴҲһ鸾Уɡ
顷

峯Ϊֳġ¡ڡġСע
Уڡȥ̡ˡ㡱֡һΪڶŮ˶ÿ
̵ʱ򣬿ڰ·ͬʱôһӡ
ʰ֮ġ֮ģʵǳֵ֮ΰ
á塢£

⣬ǳֵһǹڡǿоڸķж˵
ܵǿĸŮǶԴоȴ൱ľȡɵע
ԡǿĹǣǿ飺

һǿ֮״

ţɣ

в֮飻

ģн֮Ʒ֮

壩֪

עж˵ûЩǰͲǡǿ顱ֻԡ
顱

뿴ǺεȵĶ񷨣˵ʱ򣬻ֻҪһ
ҩһŮǷǳ⵽˱ͽǿģȴֻԺͼ
ۣ鰸ظߣҷɻ涨ˡ鸾УӶ
Ůѡĸֿܶˣڵʱ֮£
񷨵Ĺ֮£ʹŮӣҲֻȥܼˣ޷
̡֡ĶлٿŮӵѪᣡ

˼ǣɷ涨ˣʹ߱ǰЩǰ
ŮñͽǿɹǾͲǿ飡[18]

뿴ġ֮ġΰƾõĴͳĻ
ɴ¹Ұ˲䣬Ķ񷨣ɣ
ҲͲǿ鷸ˣǿ鷸ֻҪƴǿֺ󣬾Ͳǿ
ˣǺεȵĲǺεȵķ࣡ͬ޷֡
̡Ķж޹Ů⵽ַ֮ɱԡͼ
̣

峯ĩ꣬ұ޶ɣݰʱ¹
̷ȥ˶ԡ޷Ů顱ĴɵĹ£
ɡָֻ˶ԡ޷Ů顱Ĵ΢еǣ÷Ķ
ҪŮ˵߲Żɡ³̡
ɡ䲼һ꣬峯ˡ

ӳǽ鷢ôŮܵĴ
ͽ̡Ԫ꣨1912꣩3£䲼ġɡ÷ڶ
ʮµ289涨

ͼз֮ߣͽ̻ۣͬ

ɣһϴĽΪ涨Ĺ涨޷ŮΪ
Ƿ17꣨1928꣩7£ʱ䲼ˡл̷÷
涨

з֮ͨߣͽ̣ͬ

ɰͨڽ꣬Ҳһлá
֮Ĵǣûй涨и֮򡱷ִܺɼһ
͵ġȨġķɡ24꣨1935꣩71°䲼
ġ̷лǧʷϣһڷʵˡŮƽ
ȡ÷239涨

żͨߣһͽ̡ͬ

з֮ڹɵˡżݸá̷ɷͨ鵱
߶ɱԴļ̡273

ӡ鷢ڶʮһ͵ڣȻӲĳͷ
1979䲼ġ̷1999޶1981䲼ġ2001
жûг֡ͨ顱֣仰˵йͨΪһ
ߵ˾ͷǣǲҪΪŮͨӴ˾Ͳᰤˣ
û£ԡͨ顱ĳͷڣֻѾͷ棬
һšͷѣšͷǡһͷ
С79꡶̷åзֽġåǸ͵
ڴ99޶̷ʱϸ˸áͷ̷һ
涨

ڽһģҪӻ߶βμӵģͽ̡
ۻ߹ơ

רЩҸŮϵ˶ƶġ
ص㣺һҪ˸ߡֻҪץͻᱻ̣ڶҸ㡱ƣ
Ȼѻδ飬Ůɼͨ
ӲҲ

һĲǷǳ͵ġԴͳԵӰ취ɡĶˡ֪
ֻȵȶԷΪʵҴû
׵ĵԡ֪߳ܵ١ڿˡҡһ
൱ǿҵĵɫʵνҡǡη֪޳
ӡӰӵİܻסӵĲ֪߳ܡܲ
áء

Ҳ֪жŮΪԻɡֻ̣
ӵġйԷСһоͿԿĸ5ŮˣΪ
ԻΪǡҸԹϵӶԡ
о 

ϵĳУʶйԷɵĲ֮Բ
ڷɣΪڷɱεǴͳĻ֡
ӰšֵĶҲӰŷɡңĻ
ֻǱڷϣ͸йÿ䣬ˣǲҪΪԷ
Ů˵ĳͷǷƲô򵥣ǲҪˣڸУŮ
˴ġ˽̡

ʵϣԷŮ˶˽ģҰʼС˵˲
ˡҷŮϵĲпԣ˽ֱС׼סŮ
˶˽һ棺

һɷлΪˡ塱Ķأǲ
иӵһ棬ֻҪӶԼԵġ꣬ñӡ
˵һ׽衣һˣƽʱӢۺúΪ˺ˬһ
ӡӳǽʲôȶûˣʹǺ۾ó
ʱͳ֡ҲҪ˶֣ҪԼȻ׳׳ҵһ
׵ӽ쵶ӳġ޼ǡ֡УɡԼ
㲻㶨ڹǿҵܶⷽ[19]

һֱȽϷ˽ǡƲáν桢ҷԼй
ڷ߻ħӴȨУڶԷŮ˵Ĵ˽
пģұĿ֤˽̡еۡ񡢳
ɱʬҵȵȡȽ϶ģǸС˵
ıĵӰŮ졷˰ѡװ̶[20]

ǼĻŴķɶ涨Ů˷һչܣ
˼Ҫռ[21]йļĻ֮ڰ̶ǿġֻҪ
Ů˱ռ࣬ǾĿʼӴҪܽͷİٰŰ


ʮƽ١Ļǡ˽̡Ϊĵʮꡣĸ
ǧʷϣͳ͡Ȩ桱Լ˱һ
ںϡһ񶼡Ը塱塱Ե
塱СȻڵʱ䲼ܷΪûа䲼̷
ȵľ巨[22]˽ǳ޷졣

һŮˣڡĸʱͨ顪ĸʱ׽ɷ硪
׽ᱻԡܻҪ
˽ͨϸڡᱻдǷԽġϡᱻ
ɡͨ鷸ᱻͷᱻǿڲϹЬνʾڡ
ᱻĭڡŮ֮ġСġƽʱФ
˵ġ׽顷ġ¡ǶġסȵУǶ
ܿЩڹое˸ġͳ⡱ǰЩֻС˵
䣬רдĸʱڡ̵ġ¡ĸʵ¼һ
УܿרʩŮϵĺŵġ̡[23] 

ģ

ݱǰĳǿܽһ£ʱڣս
ʱڹԪǰ500㣩ʼءκ塢ơʮΡ
ɡԪ塢ĸʱڡٵʮһ͵Ľ죬ͷβʱ
ȸպöǧꡣЩʱУǺĿˡ֮
̡ܹ˭ɱն̡ͽꡢһ롢Ȱʮʮȥ̡
ɻͽ̡оܵ˽
б񡢵ۡɱʬҡ

⣬ʱ°ټҽ̳ϵרѧߡˡ־
Сϵרҡ̳ϵ¸صĹѧʦʳŲĴͳɡѬ
Ļ۴еġΰƾõĴͳĻ˶񶾵Ķ
ĴҪ治֪ЩĺΪʹһйĴ
ˣҲ֪Щ˿ٹ飬ֶйĴͳĻ˽٣
ֻ֪϶һȺѾʧȥ˷ʡеǶ
ͳĻʷϵı̬Ӷֻһ϶˵ĸ
ԣȻټԼ丽Ľ

˵¾ð¾ӣʲôͳȱʧѽ
ֵŵ½ѽԽǧ곾ԽĻԭ㡱ѽ
ھתƾȡѽ͵ת뻥ѽ˼ָ
ըѽʥۤδͬѽ˺һ֮˼Ļ
֮ײѽ֮װŪի糵Ȼģ
˵ġͳĻԽŵġͳĻгֵġͳ
ġͳĻ롰ͳĻһϵûС

ƪǺĿͳĻʷʵзӵã
ĺļֵ¿ͷ˵Щ쭵ļֵĶԼ
֡²ķɡ˵˽̵ȵȶҺԸţ
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ͳĻܹǵķ˼ʵΪǲ
˵ĻǾԶ޷úġԻԵ¹ۡ

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ϡڹϣѾʵˡŮƽȡʣµֻ˼ϵ
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;⡱֪ڶǧʷУֻʮ꣬
ϣһ̣Ⱥåǲֻȥֻȥ٣
٣֪Ѿ˭ɱˣҲǡӷˣ
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ʾˣԷɵġоֻ͸ġݻͽ̶ǹ̡̡
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֪߳ܡһ˽ѡһУ֮
ʷϾ޽еġǡ

ӣĿǰ״ѹ֮£ΪһŮԣһλ
ѧѧߣѾĹˡһ𾴵֪ʶӣ
ԡڡգԡȮ塱ڼӴԹ۶룬
뵣ļǵ˼ͬӦΪܵĴ
еңӦðѵѧҵý侮ʯ쵼ġ족
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ųֵġòʾһŮ޲űǵ¡ûеġ˵
ӴɲԡȮ塱ԳҪ֪йʷϣƷ
׵󶼱׸ˡվҪ䣬վҪģֻڶ
ѡ

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עͣ

ۣйŴ˾ƶµĲƶɵһԭ
ġ̷־жɿһԭ硰й
¡йڽףԸٳΪءʷ
塷硰ߣԽ̵ȥƧԳ羴
Ҳʥ˼ȹ֮ԣ֮ͨģ̡̣
顷֮׼Ҳ顷Ϊټͣ
ΪΪ顷ҲߣʼڱҲ
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ۣݹŮ˵λļأҵһۣ

Ů⡱Ӹ˽˽˽٣˽롱ǡ
򡷣

֮塱ߣ֮Ҳ˲նߣԻҲ
˲ܷҲɥĴ

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Ҳ׻ͨ塤šȢ

ˣҲ֮ڼҴӸ˴ӷ򣬷ӡ
ǡ

ΥӡӡĹ¡֮ԷڷҲ
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˲רУдҲ꡷ߣҲ
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Ůӣ˳̶֮Ҳ֮״Ӹ֣ȼ޴ӷ
ӡӼ⡷

ۣݡ岻ȡǡǣ1ӣ2Ҽ
ӣ3ˣ4ж񼲣5ɥӡ

ۣݡֳ߳ơȥǡּ
Ӽ⡷͡ŮαŮڡ߼ǣ1˳ĸ2
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ڹ߼µ򶼲һ̵ԽԽǿңɸ
ӵһ䡰Т޺Ϊ󡱶ѡӡڵһλڵ
λλĲͬһ̶Ϸӳʱڵֵۡ

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ĳɷﶼԿڹʼҲҵⷽ
ӣ

򡰲˳ĸ¾˹ãģ򫡶ȫ顷С
Ȣϣ¹òǲӡģۺ
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ʼʱѧʣӳдͥУȡࢼ֪֮
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ǣ1ȡ飻2ŵ֮ɥ3ɷƶ󸻡ɼ
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ʵȥŮ˵ıǷǳģϵֻǡ߳е
Ϊɶ涨ֻҪ˷ˡ񼲡͡顱һ
ʲôճ

̷ֱۣǣī֣棨ǣ|㣩
̣

ۣڡ塷ʮšТע衷̫͡ƽ
ʮУ˵ŮԽߣ̹ڡ̷̡ʽ
̫ƽߣŮңִùвóߣɷҲ
ɴ˿Կ̡˵ʩǸ϶ڶŮˣ
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Ӷֳٵƻڳ¡ųɿɿġĿ
ԺĿ˵̷֮ľ鳻
ظһ׹ڱ򻧣ֹ㣬˵ӣı˵Ҳ

ںݱ̡רŶԸŮ˵̷ӸĽС
ҡѾֻǡŸļ塤̡˾
Ǩ㺺˵ļͲΪ

顤ۼ͡Уߣ֤֮ӹԪǰ146꣨Т
λʮһꣿ𣬿ʼԹ̡ȻŴͳ߶Խɽ
һ̿϶ҪʹãԿԿ϶ǣù̴̵
Ӻʼں𽥼١κʱڣڻָ֮УȺ
Բܲ˵ụ̀ʹ²ңŴ֮ӡκ
顷ʮʵ˵߸ƣ֮
ﲻ飬Ȼߣ̲֮Ҳ顤̷־Щ
֤ˡ̡κʱѾáʵϻһ
Χʹš硶κ顷ʮеġ֮͡ƽִ֮
丯̡ɳŷı̡

ۣݡ˯Ĺ򡤷ʽ1975һ׽
ĳʿ壨飩ҡŮӱԻҡ飬ĳ
У֮ɼس˲ɱ׽õ١

ۣݹĵ۳̵̽ļأ顤̷־ĵ۵Ļ
йδʩѼɣΪƣ֮
֧ݣ̼Ϣ֮ʹҲΪĸ֮գ
̣֮

ּ塤̡ĵʼ̣򪡢رǡ㡢ƽ
ȴ׾׼̣֮ī桢|ڡ

ּʷǡТı͡⣺ԻԼ̣
ĵ̡ϿԻֺһΤƣ
ֺ֮޺ƺƣĵ۳̶סעƣ
򣬹ʲ֮Ҳ

⣬ڡע衷ɺϱࡷעҲɿݡ

ۣݼ塤̡忪֮ʼӹ̣̱
ڹ

ۣݸݡ顤й涨˼ףˣ
òϵ͹˾ͼ飬֮

ۣøͷ鸾̵ģʷ̷־ʡࣺ
ް׿飬Ըɱ֮ﵱԻɼһȣ
ԽܷߡɴҲԿɱڽʱԻܵɳͷ
Ԫʱͱˡ

ۣݷͽ̵̣ӦתġƩڡʷ
̷־У꣬˾ࣺͽߣδ񣿡ڡʷ
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ʵϣţ̺ӪɷȻһ죬ǸҪķ
кܴԡȶԣס桢ࡢʳӪ
ĳɳͽڸֲͬʳĺ䡣Ϊ
ţţԵġ˾ͲܳԡմۣԵģèԵģ˵
ֲʳ֮ǰҲǶԵĲݣѵֻĸ׵֭


ţǸҹӪ״Ҫʩ

     ţǷкʱ뿪ҹĿǰľ÷չˮƽ
ԼʵӪ״ҹ2002ڵؿչ˴ģӪ뽡״
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ࡢƷձڵ⡣ţ̼Ʒзḻʵ
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˵ˮƽԣйӪѧڡйʳָϡرǿࡢ
Ʒϣͨ룬ЧһЩӪ벻
⣬رǸƾ񵰰ʺ͸ƵӪ״λʿ ϣӦ
ţ̵ȡȲ˽ҹʳʵҲӪѧҽѧ
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ԣᾭõĿٷչʳģʽĸı䣬ҹĳЩ
ķʳơУѪѹ򲡡غͷֵȼ
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飬ȡѧҵԺȽȫرǧҪⵥ
׷㡱 ˣ󵼶ߣʹѧת

塢ӦԿѧ֪ʶΪݣΪ˱ſڿ

ҹĿǰھתʱڣʽʳΪ
޴ת䡣ؼʱڣҪרңָγ
ʳϰߡλʿʹǿҵĸеԿѧ֪ʶ
ΪݡڽݷôʽԽĲ
ԽءرǶһЩѧʶſڿӣ⡰߸磬˹
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36ӡĵҪʳҹڻ
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лʱšƪǲڴһһָ

ΪλʿڽнĴ󲿷ݶȷͿȡġ磬
ǿ߲˺ˮըʳƷᳫʵ˶飬
ȡȣǽ⽡رעݡǣζ
ţ̵ϣĹ۵ȱֵĿѧݣ۾㣳ʹ
ǲҹͬеϣλʿԼУ򵥵
Ʋ뵱Ȼؾͷ񶨹ϵĿѧ֪ʶӦؿѧϤѧѧ
֮εһЩ֤ݲ㡢ΥѧʶĶ
ڹڽҶԴ󵼡ɴ˲ĲӰ죬ؽܵ
Ǵ

Ϊ˸ȫĲǵĹ۵㣬йʳָϡĻݽ
ںʶ

һʳΪ

߲ˡˮ

ࡢƷ

ġ㡢ݡ⣬ٳԷͻ

塢ʳҪƽ⣬

嵭εʳ

ߡӦ

ˡʵʳ

(XYS20070323)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.3322.org)(xys.xlogit.com)

һ˵ս

2007-03-21й걨
 ܿ 

    Ŵŵĺɫİ߾´ݵһС·߽㽭ʡ
ҩֵĴšһڵǰȵȣȵȣ𣿡

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    ЦظԷ绰߾ݷ

    Է߾ֱ⼸˵֣߲ڻ߾ܾһϵ
֮󣬺ײŵõһλ칫Ҹε

    ϰġ㽭ʡϺеҩϵͳ߾
˲ˡ˶ʶңȫҡۣԳ˵

    䲻40ϺˣͷߣͷѾ˲١
ҩಿšҽҩ˾ҽԺҩýм䣬Գۼƾٱҩ101
Σеֳ70Σһգ˵˲ˣϴԡĹҹ
мҲһصӡ

    ߵģŸƱݡ֤ļռļҩԼý
ıֻҪһȲĭĽ˵Լҩ
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    ְڲûеõҩҵĳϡ䶭³ڽܼ߲
ʱʾߵʱֻһҩƷɹԱ

    Ϊ֤Լû˵ѣ߾·ʱŹʵĴۣʾ2003
2004ϰ꣬ʡһΪÿ5000Ԫ´ﵽ7000Ԫ
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    200311£߾´˾μҩƷ׻ʱͬ˵𣬡
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