                          ˿µϣ20080518գ

08.05.17ûи
08.05.18, ͬС6Сʱ
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š

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ѰҰȫķ

ƾ  ƾ  [ 05-16 23:25 ] 

ѧУҽԺĹ߿𼶱ڱ

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ѵҪô챻

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еѧ

yansaint

⵽ǿҵֺʱȷҺ͵ա̨壩
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ܱһѾ̫ˡ

˵ΪѧУȴʹУ׿Ҳûеġҵ
бУȴķӺ̳ܶ࣬ݡȵȣЩ
ִϸĿ׼ڵʱΪʹáУ
ҵ壬ֻΪҵ˶ԷҪϸö࣬ѧ
УУУߵܲǷģǾͲö֪ˡ

⣬εôСѡСѧ
һЩԭ

1. ȱٵؾ̫ԼΣա֪Լĺ
ûκεķѧÿĸҪı״
ϼ͵ϼӹȾмСѵ˶ԣ
ڷЧԷסſڽֹΪ֪
Ⱦֱ˺ӡ

2. ؼ̫ͥࡣĴһ齭޴򹤵ر࣬ܶ඼Ƿ޳
ţ˺ڼҡڵؽܹǵĺӣ
ʺϴߵշѱ׼ܶԱ⡣ؼͥҪ
λķϡĮķգû뵽ֱ˺ӵ
ϴ򹤸ĸҲܴÿʮΣĴ򹤼ͥ
ุĸûӴ߸ȱθУϣĽ
ϼҡЩûлؼҿӡй˴ͳ
ֻڴ򹤼ͥΪ

3. ѧ༶سꡣԴѧ¥ɳ18
࣬1000ңƽÿѧԼ55ˡѧһ򳡴С
ѧ¥ѧ2000ˣƽÿɵѧȾԴѧ١
ҹ涨Сѧÿѧ༶Ӧ45ˣũСѧҪüڿ
һ£ѧ༶꣬ԱɢһЩӦûһЩɣ
ֱӺǽ½ֱԭƶͶ٣ʦ
ûбϣرǻܲŻӷףԱڶ࣬һߵʦ
㡣

ЩⱾΪгأκһ
зŴѵĺǵǴ໥ģгĵ
ܻḶۡ

Ǿ˵ңң׷ҵȷǮ
ǵǮʵڽ϶ĸȨͽϸߵϣж
ƱһһΡϸĹػ𲽸Ľġ
ʱǾˡ侯ҽ־ԸߡˡʦԱǺ
ģںҲǺõģǵĹңҪĽĵطʵ̫ˣ
ҪѧϰĵطҲ̫ˡ

ûг㣬Ͳװǰ㲻һǱǷ¹ʵ
ΡͿӣٵʱҲֻܺͿȥ

(XYS20080518)

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ǲҪ׷һЩ׼ѧУ

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ЩĹÿ춼Ҫϴ棬ÿЩ
ƬͱоҪӿˮûбˣκ
ӣֻЩӣӣЩûоʱĺӡ

˵Ǻӣѧǻûо֪
úа񣬲֪ϵķḻʣûˣΪ֫Ϊʬ塣

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ӹ׵ĽĿлӺεǰӣڲ㣬蹦
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˵겻·ٳԿͣû˵ԣٶЩ

ûȡμӵһҽƶӣֻںùҽԺĸֻ
ѪȻЩܵһӵʹģЩѧУ
Щӵʬ壬лǿʵӰ񣬵Ů΢Щ
ƣ͵ʱȻѾöˣǵǿƲס·
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貿ĹԱڵ˵ҪǾˣ˵Ȼ赭д˵
Ҫһ£ԱǵΪʲôܱŶٵ˵϶⣬
ΪЩƽҲó飬һԺʿȻ1933
˵ѧУҲ̮Աȶӵˣڵ˵
ѧУǱȻûи͵ģеĽʱѧУҲᵹ
ģλҺͼ˿ĵгˡ

貿ĹԱ˵ĵǳҪΧģƺ֮䣬
ǿһСѧûееѧһǲҪ׷һ
ǸġḶ̌ǲǳ׼ѧУ˷˹ǮƣҪ
ǻ"׼"ѧУǲǾͻŽ貿ԱĻѧУ
εӦõģ

ΪߵһЩǡǡ¶⣬һЩ¥ֻǡ
𡱣еǽ忪ѣеĶ¥еŴΪʲôѧУȴ˶


ô򵥵⣬Ҷȳ˵صķ׼ôӦе
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ǵĺӾܻܳȥ

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ŹԱļڵʧӦýܵ飡

(XYS20080518)

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Ĵʡũ巿ݵĿ

takisword

̸ĲֹĴ˽йϵũ壬󲿷ֶ


ȣũķԼլϡõؿʼͺͳз
ݽߵͬ·ߡũԽûϸĽ貿ŵҲ
ûκμϵİѹءܶũԽǿĵذͷ
ϵʽɣȻ̸Ͻṹơ

£ũ巿İѹߣֻзԼͰͷ˽⣬
˶ûκοĸڷԽõĲϰѹأ
ݵġʵ̶ȣ˶Ǯֲĺˮࡪ
ΪݵϵĻȣھ»ף
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С͵ģҶСļо飬˵ģھ
¾Ͱѷ޿ģҲȫκοʩġ

кҪһ㣬һũ˵ԭͬǮԸ
һ㣬Ҳڿϣ𣿣ǶôԶ飡ûκ
ԱܹռЩ֪ʶؽ貿Լ

ؽţܹкѵسǵķʵɽ
ϵķǺѹܵ˵ģΪǼ

ԣĴµѣ˵ףũ̫

ֵũжٸĴصӡ

ֵİݣһֵӽСõƬʯʯ
ɣݸǲԭľƬʯٷཬдĻУַ
ǡԭ̬ģǡӵȻġ˾ķӻܹô
ӣǼªưܵģڵ²һġĽ
϶޷֤

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ʵУûִκηݽṹľ幤
ṹĹɵؽ貿Ŀְ칫֮Ļɵġ
ѧ͹̿ȫͬרҵѧҪо𲨵Ĳ
Լͨоṹ⣬ҲҪ漰ֺĺۼ⣻̿
оǿ½ṹĿ⣬ԼЩ꿪Ľṹѧ
⡣

(XYS20080518)

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ÿѧͿͬ

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صַĴ˴εԴƽ⣬ǿԿ5.12
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70%-80%ϣ봨سǻء512ҹԼ13ȫ죬
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ʹׯ磬 봨صӳͰ׻硢ʲеļͺ
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ʱڴӷڳرѧУĺӡӶɽ
ӦȽ봨سǸס

Ȼѧֵǰ棨Ԥ𣩣ͿͬС

д2008.5.16



Ԯɵжʧ 

ة

(д2008.5.15)

˵봨, ǾԮһɾ봨سܡε
ҶΪԲĵĶԳƷֲһ, һ
, ӳ,,ٵനжʧӳ㡪നһϵ
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ذءߡȫһߵɽǰ߽ϡ

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ضܼ¼

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ǵļأڡ顤źдһμֻ196֣
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һиƷ˵Ƕźԭĸƣ˵ʷصЩ
Լ֮´졣

ˣ顷μأǿǽʾһЩõϢ

ȣضǾǵԤǣΪֻڵ֮ã
ֻȴ·ʹܸ֪ͨǵʿˡͺñǿ
磬֪ܻܿʵϣ緢ʱҲѾ
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Σݵ𲨵Ĵضǲ̫֮£
񡱵ġʱԴֲᷢһֽPݲ
񶯷Ͳǰһ£һֽSǺᲨ
ͲǰֱPٶȱS죬ȵ棬γɵ
յĵеĳPӢprimaryġд˵
ݳ񶯷Ϳ֪Դķ

ǣǷǳ΢ģΪֻǴԴֱֱأΪڵ
ڲŵ𲨽մ洫PⲿPЯ
ֻռȫһС֡ͺñȺܶǵܷǳ
ȫ䵽ϣ԰ѵ򿾻ΪֱֱֻĹܱ
ǿⲿֹֻռȫһС֣ǿȥԵ
һ

һضеԡһڡӦô
ĺ͵޹ص񶯡šķӦ
಻ǵҲǵ𡣵ҪúضǱһ
ġٶۡԣп޷оĳֱ֮ĸֲ½
ʱűѡЩĲ񶯷ѾȫܴԴķ
ˡ

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ҲԲλãȴ޷¼ʱ̣޷¼𼶡
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2008.05.13

(XYS20080518)

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ֺľԽԽ

ˮ

봨֮ȫȫԸͶ뿹ֹ֮Сǣ
ڵ·ͨ裬ܶطľϢܳͨӶ
ˮڵеİȫԵļעһЩߵűҲͬĽǶȣԸ
ˮ˱ǣЩʱ໥ìܣˣ
ܶ˶ԵˮⰲȫԷǳעġ

磬бƵˮվƼ̳ѷֲݣѾв
ζߺͳɶеİȫϢ˵ƺ̴ֳָӲᷢ
ͨ棬ƺˮӽṹȶȫ Щ໥ìܵϢȻù
ڲһЩǡһǿȷĸߴңΪˮӵĿȫ
׼ձȽϸߣݹϴļ¼Ϊֹϻûһ
ֱӱ𺦶ˮӡĿǰֹձҹҲԽԽ
֤ʵ죬ҵḱϯеˮվ֮Լ˵
ЩվˮܵӰ죬ȫ˷ģ⡱

ҾһϢӦǱȽϿŵġΪӼϽˮվĴȻ
ܽϸߣǣһЩʩ͵վڵ
ƻԣˮվһ㶼ܼ硣ȻλҪϵ
ˮйˮ磬ʱ䳤˱Ȼвˮİȫԣ
뱣֤ˮվйˮʩܹáĿǰϢˮվˮ
ʩԣˮվİȫԲ̫⡣ݸոյõ
Ϣ˵ƺˮվѾ̨鲢硣

ʵڵ֮غˮֺģȻ赲
ɵġ֮дɽ廬赲Ȼ
ˮλǣγɡܹˮһѰҵһ
µĺ·γȻĸɽ磬ҹкľ룩
ˮһ̶ȺͻȻ忪赲ɰʯ
ɾ̣ϴĵˮֺ

ݹԴĿ죬˴봨Ѿγ13ң
Щپ̡磬Ϣơ172ʱ55ֽӵ
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ˮӾȫͬĸΪˮǾԲ
̵ģ̱ȻǾ޴ѡȻγɵһҪ
ģңľ̻ԽԽáΪ̵ʱ磬赲ʱ
̣ˮҲԽ١ˣ̺ƻҲԽС

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ĵ֡1933귢ĴĴ𣬾һڵ
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ȡһЩʩЩѾγɵһ㡰̡֮ڶʱڣֻ
Ҫͻش꣬Ҷľ̻عڿֻš

(XYS20080518)

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̸̸ݶΪ쳣Ԥ

Źҫ

ҹÿѵͷʱͨҲαѧšΪ
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ݶΪԤһʷ鷽Ҳ˵α
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ǲͬġȫαѧݡ

صǰֶΪ쳣ף׷ݵڹԪǰ
373ϣ˹һεļء˵ݶΪ쳣Ԥ
𣬲ǡй㴫ͳĻרִйƵԤר
ҡġΰסνµơʵɹһ˿ġ
ļأ˹ڵǰදֳ˲쳣ΪУ
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㲻ѵҲڵǰĳè͹
УΪϿȥ񾭹ͽ겻ļء

ڵԤѧϵһ⼶⣬һЩµԤо
ѧߣͼͨܽЩʷڵԤķǣδ
κι۲֤ʵв˰ݶ쳣ΪеԤķд
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СʱͽܹġѧʶĽ

йγһֹףԴﵽꡱĵز
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ʵϣִѧоͶΪѧоֶ֧ڵǰԤ
ȸ֪

һݣ

ݵѧҹ۲ͳƣȫÿ귢ĵ50Ρɱо
Լ10ΡУֻ100ҵĵƻִ
ѧ¸ܵ50εĵָ֪Ѿ󳬹κһҰ


ڶݣ

ձһ෢ҡûκιձżн
ԤԸҵĵԤоҲָݹ۲춯Ϊ쳣
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ձ˷ţƼȮȸ֪ǣѧҲ
ΪһơйضǷԤȸ֪о
ʵѾȷǾǣжﶼûԤȸ֪

ݣ

ĶΪѧо֣쳣ΪҪؾȨ
ʳ;סǨԶԵǰԤȸ֪ڡʧ
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ʵϣÿ˵ľҲܹжϵóදΪ쳣
޹ء˵ǺʡĶͥ2007귢Ǩƣ1942꣬
ںϵĺڳɳ1999꣨Ҳܼ
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ڶΪѧоĽֶ֧Ԥȸ֪ԣ
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ѧҷݹ۲춯Ϊ쳣еԤԺ1975꣬
йĵѧ״γɹԤĺǵϢܱû
˵Ρ״γɹԤݵǶΪ쳣ǣΡ״γɹԤ
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𡱡

(XYS20080518)

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ߣ

ݿĴ־أ˳ʮ꣨1657421գïء봨
ȴ³գҹ䣬ɽʯѣˮԷУѹ
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Ԥףб޻Ҳصһ̬𣿡

캣⣬ıȷӦԴʩȲ϶
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ҽ󣬶ͨȿѧ飬ֻõĴСѣԤ
кοɱԣ

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Ψһùʳϵ׼ȷĵԤ33ǰ

197524գ˿ڳܡҵʡǡӪڵ7.3ǿ
ҵ𣬹ҵͨˮʩԼ⵽ƻֻ
1300׼ȷԤǼֵĹؼء

Эṫ桷һƪרйͬеĹȻ
Ԥ⣬ǽ˻ҡֱжϺͺԤ
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Ҳ˵ǵԤȻóɹĳԣԶԶûдﵽ
ظɸƵĿѧ׼1976귢ɽԤȻһ
δ˵⡣ʱйȥɽרڵȫ
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׼ȷԤȻ̫ƺʣ˭ҸϢԤ

1997꣬Ȩġѧ־ͷѧ£
30оֽ׶εĿˮƽ޷Ե׼ȷԤ⡣
һʵʲֵĵԤ⣬ٰҪأ׼ȷʱ䡢ص͵


Ȼ޷׼ȷԤ⣬ȫŽĿں
ṩƹ۵ҩƷġһЩΪҽҩʵѷ
¶ӦԤдơǵĺԶԤصѹ֮£
ͬʾԮ֯֡οͬʱڵһʱͽ
ʾԮֵ֯ȼڳɶܶȶ
ʻ

ĴйֺЭᷢġֳȻ
Ϊ򡱱Żվý㷺תأΪѧУʶһ֣
ед뿪ݣҲҪڷһΪȫĵط
¥ݵסڼ̵ļҾߵ£㷿ݵҲѹпͨ

2006725̫ԭµĿѧ𷨡һ㷢ʱǶ
ΪӻȽϰȫѾȶӶӳȴвͬ
ΪҪ棬ҪԱӡ߶ȵ͵ƣӡ
̵Աߡ

һƪͬӡʱӦöĶϷ
ҲⷽרңԸйֺЭ͸ֱ
⡢ᵹֱײονѾȶӶӡֻһӰ
޵֯ʮֻӦȨŵĽ鶼
ǣ 𶯿ʼʱſ¡ץסĶڼӲ
£סȣӱͷͷֱȥ

ˮԼѹйʹ࣬ԾΪҪĻԡ
ʶ͵ѶϢ𣬻ӦȨŷϢΪ׼˺

٣Է֯ǰֵĻǰǡǰ
ͬȻ¶޿ɺǡĶһЩСıʾһ⣬
ֺ־ɳǡѹصֱӱ֡һѣ˷֧Ԯ
ֺޡصؽҪÿʵСҲ˰գ
ϣÿ˰˶쾭塢ޱȹٵľˡ
ͬǵ˾ǵˡ

Է֯ǰ֣Ѫ˼͡ûܹרҵѵԼȱ
רҵ豸幤㵽ֳܷӶأͨĵ
·ͲͨһռרҵѾԱװԼԮʽֳ
ԱĻϣһЩʿṩľһ㲻ֱ
ַ񣬶ɹٷմΪַҪºɧңⷽʷ
ѵ㹻ʹΣʱ̣СԽԽæĹʿ֯ɲ졣

Ϊ²׷κչӦͬЭ֧־֡ʵ
γΪ˾֣Ϊ˸õؾ֡ձҲǵ෢ң
ḻľ־飬ֻҪһо֣ÿһ־ٴ
⵽Сý޴ǽΪݴʡ

ҲΪձýվ˵ۣڳңýǸȨ
ṫΪȲʻԵ÷ǳЦͻκһ߶
ٶٺݵҲ޷ʹ֮ȴǵĹעʹ֮
ҲҪ֮⡱

1964ձ7.5𣬵ʱкХͿ75%ú
ܵ11վ⵽ƻٻ6򶰣ȫ4000 26ˣ27
ˣ2003ݷ6.5ˣ2004ձ7
ɽĵĴֻ40ˡ

Щ֮٣뽨ﱾι̶̳ءݵ
ι̲˵ڵԽԽι̣߻ĵȼͼӴֽҲ
߽￹ָΨһֶΡˣݵػн
Ʋǿѧķ

67.31׵ɽӦľǧʹССʮεȻ
ΪѧߵойԺԺʿҶͽΪ֤
ľǧ겻ԭṹǳѧîҧϣãָ
ϵصž޴ĺãֺܼõƣִ
ѧĿƼˮƽ

Ҫڽ¹йΪһ෢ңǿֵĳʶ
ڱС֮ԵķУȻֺΪȡ̬

(XYS20080518)

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Ӱƭ˿վ2005119յǹƪ¶£
ֿʼˣü˶ҼĹ

ƭֽ¶Ϲ㷺νѾȶӳյġȷĵ

ߣų

ɨɮBlogϿһƪʱӦöէ
Щͬǽ¡

Ӣĵԭȷ£ȥȻѲѾȶӡ
Ӣֺ͹ٷҳҵ FEMAʩϵĹٷ
ϣDrop, Cover, and Hold Poster 2005  9 ³档ôҪ
ĹٷϣݺλѾȾǳḻѾȶӳ
˵ҿʼɵ˵ĿŶȡ

ʼҵ FEMA ڳѾ (US&R) ҳûܿ
Ѿȶӡκټ⵽һѾֲֳָ 
(Urban Search & Rescue Field Operations Guide)൱רҵ

ۣ㶨λյӢ Doug Copp  Douglas 
CoppѾȶӵӢ American Rescue Team International 
(ARTI)˵ģҳĵһӡԵòרҵ

ĵ飬ƪºܿѧĽҴ˵յƭ֣
Ԯ˵ĲοϣʮֻǷǳĿѧר
ҵеҪҪǣڵʱȡſ¡ӣӡ
ȣȻԭصȴ (Drop, Cover, and Hold) ԭǷ
ʵúЧģϸܵĽ涨

ص˵ѾȾʵ
ĴţѣǺܶγֳֻȥѾȵģȥ
ֳ¼ͼüǮȤĶĶȥ

οϣ
- Doug Copp: Disaster Expert or Massive Fraud? @ Wednesday, 
September 15, 2004
- Knucklehead or Hero? @ Wednesday, July 14, 2004 

(XYS20080518)

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пƴڽ𺣾Ȼʵҿоȥ

һxys

֪û˼ǵûпƴڡ973ϯѧҽ𺣣˴ա
󣩡

ҳϿͷ:http://grid.hust.edu.cn/news.php?id=1192

5.12جĴ봨ȵǣġʵһ
Ӧ롢ԺԼѧУĺ٣֧Ԯװģ
13400Ԫֽ֧Ԯ 
֪ѧУ֯ʵν𺣽ڵʵҾ
ó7000Ԫ֧

ҷǳ׵,ΪʲôΪһʦ,ʵҾȥ?˵ʵ,
ʦͬѧǲԣ,ֻҪԼһ,Ҳ˹.ûб
ҪӿоǮ,Ȼ󻹺˼дҳ.

(XYS20080518)

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ڿɹȷĴо

zeroyear

ڡڿɹȷĴоһģѾ׷ָ
ֺĿԤԸڣҲЩ˵ν
ɹԵδط𣬲ϵҲδزȻʷԤ
⡱ܲ׼ġģ͡Ԥδǣƺǻ
һӡҲǺܲɿģȫƣǿ䶼
ܲ׼ʵ©Ҳһ״۵ġôһЩ
Ȼܹ򵥵ƷԤ⣬ȴΪҲǺ޵ģ
еϷٻЩɫδҿˣҾͳĩʱ
ķŪŪνɹȷֵڣ̧
һΡʵרҵ޹أνҲֻóѧ֪ʶ
ܶԸ֤ʵֱ䡰衱

2.1ڵġԪɹȷԤ⡱кƺƵг75ϣ
ظģ֮ƵͨԿóĽʵʵһ£
ÿһдϵԪɹʽӣɴ˵ǿ
ֳ˼õĿɹԡҲ֪νɹԵĺûô
ģ߼ȻΪÿһдóϵʽǾǡ
áˣ˸ҵĸоǣÿ˵⡣еǣǶ
Ȼоٳֱ20072008صļ˵Ԥ20072008ĺ
ԣ2007ص2飬2008ص3飬2007ص2滹
ظ1鱾2006صϡ͸Ϊܾٳ32008ص
Ѿ˵2008ˡ2007صƺֻܾٳ2飬Ǹ
2006صĴžƸ2007ģƺҲֳ2007
źš2008ٽڵ2.2ڵġԪɹȷԤ⡱
4˵12Ǹ֣ڵ2.3ڵġԪɹȷԤ
⡱г2008ص6ϡ

ʱҸог6ϼֱ͸ǺܺˡҲ
ﲢû۷ͼֻЩЩͲ㣬ҵ
ȷֱ󵼵ĸо֣߸Եһ
ӻΪ֮ȷھҲռƪ
ݣ׽νɹȷԤĻ֮Ƥ

һ޹ʹġϡ

ġԪɹȷǸʲô޷Ǿ
Y1=Y3+Y4-Y2һʽӣYYEAR2526Ϊһл
ϣY1Y2Y3Y4ʾĸţ͵ȼY1+Y2=Y3+Y4
Ҫ֮͵֮͡һ㣬
ֱϿ²֪Ҫ׻ĸ
ֻΪҳʮҲסȻǲ㲻֪
ʵ2526ŵÿһصǴسġ磬
25ŵУY1=X1=1937صľϣеΪţ

[1+09=04+06][1+11=02+09][1+11=03+08][1+13=03+10]
[1+13=04+09][1+14=04+12][1+15=03+13][1+15=05+10]
[1+15=07+08][1+16=02+14][1+16=06+09][1+17=06+10]
[1+18=02+15][1+19=07+09][1+20=04+14][1+20=08+10]
[1+21=03+16][1+21=08+11][1+22=04+19][1+22=07+13]
[1+23=03+20][1+23=08+13][1+23=10+11][1+24=07+14]
[1+24=09+13][1+25=05+19][1+25=06+17][1+25=08+14]

߲õݴ1913ʼ1996ֹΪ8325֮䣬
7ͻᷢôǲķʱ䣬ǰ10
꣬1996꣨X2520κһȡΪX26γ
ÿһ26ŹɵеνɹԾжɴ
߻ʶ2008жôر±г26ŵݣ
һе0000кű䶯к9716ʾ1997201620꣬ǰ25
ʾ25еÿһصһʾжӦ
ص磬2008ص42Ӧ˼ǣԤ
1996ֱ֮2008ŷôȡX26=2008еνɹ
08һСЩԶԶش棬߾ôƽ
20072008ġֺźšȽǿģ

һ
0000 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1913 30 30 35 31 31 33 29 31 31 31 31 33 33 31 31 31 31 30 31 33
1917 41 43 40 42 41 41 41 43 43 41 41 41 41 40 41 43 41 44 39 40
1923 43 46 46 43 44 44 43 42 44 46 43 46 41 42 42 40 44 44 43 42
1925 44 41 40 41 41 39 41 43 40 43 39 40 39 37 41 41 40 39 39 41
1933 53 55 51 50 51 48 53 54 53 51 50 53 49 52 53 51 51 51 52 52
1936 52 53 52 55 54 54 51 52 53 50 55 55 52 52 53 53 52 53 52 51
1941 60 57 57 59 55 58 59 58 58 57 58 56 57 55 56 56 56 58 55 55
1942 59 61 61 57 61 61 58 60 61 60 59 60 57 58 56 57 61 59 57 56
1948 55 57 57 56 59 60 56 58 55 55 58 56 54 55 57 56 54 57 54 54
1950 57 57 53 54 53 52 54 55 55 55 52 52 53 53 51 54 54 52 52 53
1952 61 62 62 62 57 58 61 58 60 61 59 61 58 60 59 58 58 59 60 59
1955 55 57 55 59 58 58 58 55 56 55 56 58 58 56 58 56 56 57 56 54
1960 64 64 63 65 62 63 63 61 63 64 64 65 62 62 61 60 62 64 61 63
1967 54 57 56 57 56 60 55 58 57 54 57 55 53 57 52 54 55 56 56 53
1970 57 57 61 55 57 55 55 55 58 54 58 56 54 56 54 53 56 55 54 55
1971 62 62 62 63 57 60 59 60 60 62 57 61 59 58 60 59 59 60 57 58
1973 57 56 55 53 55 58 52 55 51 53 53 55 51 55 56 53 53 52 51 53
1974 51 51 52 50 50 51 55 47 50 47 48 49 52 49 52 49 48 50 47 47
1976 54 56 55 55 58 53 53 53 57 51 55 54 54 52 54 51 55 54 53 53
1979 59 64 55 58 58 57 57 60 59 56 57 59 54 56 55 57 56 58 54 57
1981 54 52 53 58 50 53 55 53 53 54 51 51 52 55 49 51 50 50 51 53
1988 45 47 44 45 44 45 46 47 44 45 51 43 45 46 45 46 47 45 44 44
1989 58 55 56 54 56 54 56 55 56 55 55 60 53 56 55 55 56 57 55 54
1995 50 51 48 50 50 51 53 49 51 48 50 48 49 50 50 49 50 54 47 49
1996 41 43 44 41 43 44 44 45 42 44 41 43 41 43 42 44 41 43 48 39
0000 44 50 43 43 39 42 41 41 42 36 38 42 29 34 33 31 34 39 28 28

Īġڡ

еġԪɹȷǽ䡰ԪɹȷY1+Y2=Y3+Y4
滻Y1+Y2=Y3+Y4+12ǲչһY1+Y2=Y3+Y4+T
һУ1996УʾûԤʱֻ25ţȡTֵӦ
вظνظϼ磬Y1=Y3+Y4+T-Y2Y1صģ
ͬʱҲY2صģY2=Y3+Y4+T-Y1T=0⻹ͬʱY3Y4
صģʾԤ˶Ӧ귢ġɹԡñ
1Ϊţ213αʾTȡ02581012151925
3040500ΪŰĶ롣ע⣬ȡT=0ʵʾ
˻ΪνԪɹȷT=0ӦеÿһǱһĳһ
ܺټȥظĽ磬Ԥ1996ֱ֮2008귢
ôȡX26=2008㣬õY1+Y2=Y3+Y4+12Ĳظ
Ϊ625ге4ϣЩ棬Ϊ
ƫƫѡT=12


0000 000 002 005 008 010 012 015 019 025 030 040 050

1996 296 584 574 532 577 562 554 492 506 524 429 392
1997 340 671 665 624 667 642 638 576 583 600 509 458
1998 346 664 663 619 660 653 643 572 580 602 508 455
1999 339 667 658 616 656 647 646 577 581 604 498 463
2000 339 676 660 623 662 634 633 567 578 596 497 450
2001 335 668 647 609 656 646 639 571 579 595 501 463
2002 338 668 656 609 657 652 633 572 591 597 510 459
2003 337 665 666 609 659 636 624 566 580 594 505 454
2004 337 662 646 600 659 639 629 565 577 588 504 463
2005 338 663 651 610 649 637 631 576 581 593 501 450
2006 332 667 646 621 642 634 625 563 572 591 501 455
2007 334 655 647 603 648 631 624 555 576 598 489 463
2008 338 654 649 603 656 625 624 565 579 591 495 464
2009 325 655 654 598 645 631 624 561 575 588 500 454
2010 330 657 644 603 646 633 617 556 573 587 489 457
2011 329 647 638 598 641 627 613 560 579 584 491 457
2012 327 657 639 599 640 632 621 556 570 591 494 461
2013 330 645 645 599 640 620 622 552 558 592 486 456
2014 335 643 628 589 645 626 615 554 567 587 482 459
2015 324 645 634 592 638 626 616 545 564 583 486 456
2016 324 652 632 601 635 621 609 552 562 589 483 458

Ԫ˷¶ì

еġԪɹȷǽԪչ
Y1+Y2+Y3=Y4+Y5+Y6ı롰ԪӦǸһġ
Ԫ棬ǵӵĿޣֳABг£

A
0000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1913 2719 2712 2677 2694 2711 2685 2702 2694 2680 2678
1917 2789 2758 2793 2753 2764 2766 2746 2731 2727 2742
1923 3020 2984 2990 3002 2994 2982 2975 2989 2974 2940
1925 3073 3059 3071 3064 3052 3073 3045 3000 3037 3026
1933 3220 3187 3216 3210 3194 3215 3162 3148 3157 3158
1936 3304 3281 3288 3256 3261 3246 3258 3241 3231 3235
1941 3327 3333 3336 3297 3333 3292 3275 3268 3274 3268
1942 3352 3322 3322 3327 3294 3285 3303 3277 3262 3265
1948 3414 3404 3406 3377 3384 3350 3362 3347 3356 3345
1950 3478 3440 3466 3472 3451 3443 3447 3407 3388 3403
1952 3453 3417 3418 3413 3444 3425 3382 3401 3385 3361
1955 3501 3482 3500 3453 3451 3443 3431 3429 3432 3410
1960 3446 3438 3442 3417 3434 3406 3394 3403 3387 3360
1967 3517 3480 3502 3450 3473 3430 3437 3417 3427 3431
1970 3480 3461 3436 3460 3454 3470 3437 3437 3407 3425
1971 3416 3393 3390 3371 3419 3385 3401 3359 3366 3339
1973 3435 3421 3452 3446 3439 3402 3428 3393 3430 3400
1974 3452 3448 3440 3451 3455 3424 3387 3437 3412 3418
1976 3407 3385 3393 3373 3354 3388 3371 3344 3329 3357
1979 3343 3270 3358 3315 3314 3308 3294 3265 3283 3290
1981 3335 3305 3302 3259 3300 3260 3273 3253 3242 3256
1988 3226 3203 3215 3190 3223 3176 3167 3171 3165 3171
1989 3106 3143 3135 3133 3107 3132 3094 3100 3101 3091
1995 2998 2979 3012 2975 2981 2959 2927 2972 2964 2975
1996 3018 3009 2994 3006 2998 2979 2956 2951 2988 2980
0000 2993 2890 2938 2860 2884 2812 2758 2714 2708 2692

B
0000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1913 2681 2649 2657 2669 2653 2659 2643 2660 2657 2615
1917 2733 2734 2728 2732 2728 2689 2702 2680 2708 2704
1923 2958 2941 2969 2949 2946 2953 2915 2915 2912 2915
1925 3033 3006 3025 3032 2984 2989 2977 2966 2986 2972
1933 3151 3121 3153 3119 3100 3104 3091 3079 3080 3064
1936 3176 3184 3206 3190 3182 3164 3157 3137 3147 3146
1941 3248 3250 3248 3247 3230 3218 3213 3169 3204 3191
1942 3246 3243 3258 3238 3259 3224 3173 3188 3203 3198
1948 3300 3307 3340 3316 3283 3301 3271 3240 3267 3241
1950 3406 3380 3386 3379 3362 3344 3329 3318 3330 3323
1952 3359 3343 3357 3323 3319 3320 3311 3287 3275 3279
1955 3399 3373 3374 3376 3361 3346 3343 3297 3318 3315
1960 3350 3342 3352 3336 3335 3336 3307 3282 3301 3273
1967 3404 3407 3416 3374 3415 3394 3343 3326 3338 3328
1970 3378 3395 3409 3365 3389 3370 3334 3343 3353 3316
1971 3367 3312 3334 3329 3293 3311 3288 3261 3298 3277
1973 3386 3361 3398 3337 3345 3344 3320 3325 3320 3307
1974 3389 3375 3369 3376 3351 3353 3345 3302 3341 3316
1976 3323 3330 3321 3310 3301 3307 3261 3253 3282 3252
1979 3266 3251 3286 3253 3269 3231 3225 3198 3240 3188
1981 3254 3226 3246 3204 3227 3232 3231 3172 3196 3179
1988 3104 3139 3148 3119 3113 3108 3093 3086 3116 3086
1989 3075 3025 3077 3048 3056 3044 3024 3008 3028 3016
1995 2944 2972 2944 2925 2934 2930 2909 2866 2927 2897
1996 2989 2943 2988 2943 2944 2948 2939 2916 2877 2936
0000 2611 2549 2625 2525 2503 2471 2376 2282 2368 2294

էһܸоЩݶʵڴóϣԴôֻг6
˵أǲҸˣΪֱռЩƪгһ
ӵС嵥磬̶Y2ȡY2=X2=1917ôҪ
Y1=X1=1913صϾµ֮ࣨһ[]еΪе
ţڶΪY1+Y2+Y3ΪY4+Y5+Y6ÿһжY1=1913ν
ȣX1=Y4+Y5+Y6-X2-Y3

[1+2+13=03+04+08] 1913+1917+1960=5790 1923+1925+1942=5790
[1+2+14=03+05+07] 1913+1917+1967=5797 1923+1933+1941=5797
[1+2+15=03+04+11] 1913+1917+1970=5800 1923+1925+1952=5800
[1+2+15=03+06+07] 1913+1917+1970=5800 1923+1936+1941=5800
[1+2+15=04+05+08] 1913+1917+1970=5800 1925+1933+1942=5800
[1+2+16=03+06+08] 1913+1917+1971=5801 1923+1936+1942=5801
[1+2+17=03+04+12] 1913+1917+1973=5803 1923+1925+1955=5803
[1+2+17=04+06+08] 1913+1917+1973=5803 1925+1936+1942=5803
[1+2+18=03+05+09] 1913+1917+1974=5804 1923+1933+1948=5804
[1+2+19=03+05+10] 1913+1917+1976=5806 1923+1933+1950=5806
[1+2+19=03+07+08] 1913+1917+1976=5806 1923+1941+1942=5806
[1+2+19=04+05+09] 1913+1917+1976=5806 1925+1933+1948=5806
[1+2+20=03+06+10] 1913+1917+1979=5809 1923+1936+1950=5809
[1+2+20=04+06+09] 1913+1917+1979=5809 1925+1936+1948=5809
[1+2+21=03+05+12] 1913+1917+1981=5811 1923+1933+1955=5811
[1+2+21=03+06+11] 1913+1917+1981=5811 1923+1936+1952=5811
[1+2+21=04+06+10] 1913+1917+1981=5811 1925+1936+1950=5811
[1+2+21=05+06+08] 1913+1917+1981=5811 1933+1936+1942=5811
[1+2+22=03+04+15] 1913+1917+1988=5818 1923+1925+1970=5818
[1+2+22=04+05+13] 1913+1917+1988=5818 1925+1933+1960=5818
[1+2+22=04+07+11] 1913+1917+1988=5818 1925+1941+1952=5818
[1+2+23=03+04+16] 1913+1917+1989=5819 1923+1925+1971=5819
[1+2+23=03+06+13] 1913+1917+1989=5819 1923+1936+1960=5819
[1+2+23=03+07+12] 1913+1917+1989=5819 1923+1941+1955=5819
[1+2+23=04+08+11] 1913+1917+1989=5819 1925+1942+1952=5819
[1+2+23=05+06+10] 1913+1917+1989=5819 1933+1936+1950=5819
[1+2+23=06+07+08] 1913+1917+1989=5819 1936+1941+1942=5819
[1+2+24=03+08+13] 1913+1917+1995=5825 1923+1942+1960=5825
[1+2+24=03+10+11] 1913+1917+1995=5825 1923+1950+1952=5825
[1+2+24=04+05+14] 1913+1917+1995=5825 1925+1933+1967=5825
[1+2+24=04+09+11] 1913+1917+1995=5825 1925+1948+1952=5825
[1+2+24=05+08+10] 1913+1917+1995=5825 1933+1942+1950=5825
[1+2+24=06+07+09] 1913+1917+1995=5825 1936+1941+1948=5825
[1+2+25=03+05+15] 1913+1917+1996=5826 1923+1933+1970=5826
[1+2+25=03+06+14] 1913+1917+1996=5826 1923+1936+1967=5826
[1+2+25=03+09+12] 1913+1917+1996=5826 1923+1948+1955=5826
[1+2+25=04+07+13] 1913+1917+1996=5826 1925+1941+1960=5826
[1+2+25=05+07+11] 1913+1917+1996=5826 1933+1941+1952=5826
[1+2+25=06+08+09] 1913+1917+1996=5826 1936+1942+1948=5826

ҸôɱBɼоٵĽ2008
ص2549е6Ϊֺźš֮ΪӶû
гʾϵ2007صȴǽ֮2611
2007еҲ2008еСããȻȫô
ԤһνɹѵǼ伫伫ġá

ͨݣ׷е΢Ҳŵ
żԼ߽ţ191319962016ľ룬б
㣬θɣֺĿԤǴڵģô
ɹȷҲǸ޷֮ҳġŪϷߣǣ
ԣƾ϶2008ֹҳصһЩг
ˣܾܿȻļ򶼸ûȥã֪η
㡱2008ġֺźšǿ

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ȷԤСϼС㵣

ߣsuprathinker

һƪΪƾ"о"Բϣἰϸڣұ
ү˸ЦӲǱһشɹΪ
Ǽֻǰп಻ϣ

ٽȥְܷܿа˭רҵС͵ѧ˶ʿѧλ

ЩһѺ

С㣬ɹԤ𣬵ر㣬˵й
¶ľ

(XYS20080518)

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ҲáɹȷԤһԺʱ

gdnfz

ղŰݶһСϼȵƪɹȷĴо
ǵķԤԺ6.7ʱ䣺2027ꡢ2046ꡢ
2065ꡢ2084ꡢһȲ𣿻ҪʲôרңСѧԽ
ֿԽɢˣ

(XYS20080518)

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봨˼

Nanfangyi11

512գĴ봨7.5ȶԲҵ߱ʾصİ
ԷսһȵĲӡҽʿ־Ը߱ʾߵľ⣬ҲΪԼܱ
һ߶ź

ţҪڴ˴εУֵһЩҲҪ
̷˼

1.ΪʲôҽԺУᵹôΪʲôô׵׶԰
СѧĺѣǶ֪𲻿Ԥ⣬Ҳ֪Ĵ봨
Ǵڵ෢ֻҪƽʱܽǸùɣڽУҽԺȹ
ʩʱ򣬾ͱ߿׼ѷ˵˴ɵ
޴ʧطȫûΣǲܵģѺ󣬼¹ʵʱ
һҪ׷ĳЩ˵ΣﵽɱһӰٵá

2.ΪʲôЩͬڹ˱ҵǰһŷѲƣ
ý屨ܶطһЩƭӣž;Ļӣȡ
ĹͬģȥƭǮɢҥԡ

3.ΪʲôĳЩǡΪعʣ㣬ûһ
Ӧþ߱Ļ¹ۣҿŮXX,Ѫ
ƬƬϷҸҿ϶XXһ㡣

ġһ㲻õǣϴ
˾ʹҵľΪֻҪǳϵ̬۾٣
ҪѺͿˡܸоǹǣĳЩһ
Һ塣ǧҪĳЩġ˵Ȧף԰Ρ

ãԤƱεļƿһЩʣࣨȿˡҵĲ
֪ϵʱ򣬾ؽ԰д࣬
˵Ǯ˵ġйһҪܣ
ƿȥؽ԰н࣬һҪһѵר
רãѽǮȥӽӹСѧУǹʩҽԺ
ȣ

ԣٴο󣬹ԶԴ˴βҵѣҲҪܽᣬԤͼ
´ѵĲҪʧ

(XYS20080518)

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Ҫйýʲô



Ĵ˵ͬй˵Ĵĵǣź
лŮǣ˵ġǷ׷ĴԮ
֣֮侫˶ݡеıҲȦɵ㣬䷴ӦٶȺ͹
Чʳʷκһش顣ſų̶ȷıֵ֣ó
ȫػԼй˶ڵһʱ˽
ŵĹ͸ű˿ֵܳҥԣųʷ
ȫЭֵͬľ档飬ǵĿ־ȴ˹
ġÿ˶ϣܵǰ߰һѣÿ˶ϣܰԼԮ
͵ҪԮСȻ͹ǸվңҪ
֯Чʵؿѧ֡

ǵýòҾûøһЩý岻Ҫ
ǰսãʿãԷԴá
缸д󷽹˶֪

1ǰѵʲôصʲô

2ǰҪʲôϣһ˵磺
ˮʳƷҩƷЩʵ

3оĿǰҪѾＯȱ

4ǰҪԮ磺ȻԱɣҽɣ
ԱɣԱ

5оĹߣʹ

Ϣܹǵиýԭ
ȱȵȣд֮ǰ߲˸Żվ
ϢΪ룩һܵ˵Ļӭ

һףҪרͳƹ
ʵʱֱӱϢۺѣҲȲȡطɢ
зͱķʽֻҪϢͨͲʧеʧ
Ϣ״̬µõǾʵķַֿԴ
ͳơʹȫ͸Ļһľֿţ
ֿһȫ͸ܳＯһǵ

ЩȫͺйⳡѲϣԮ֮
˶ϣǵģϣܹⳡֺоԼ
ͬʱϣͨⳡıĹ硣ϣξֹܹ
һ̶ϴٽתְܣЧʣòֻ¾ܵת
Ϊ¡

(XYS20080518)

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ѧձ

ߣ϶

ձǸңճоܵССĵ𣬵
Ϊǵúãʶ
ʱܷʶȹһѧУ׶԰ס
լСչַѵʱӦ֪ʶھԮԱ
֮ǰʵʩԾȡȡ

һ棬йǡǡ෴ձص֣ţ߹
ЩطܷǶڶڣ30ڽĸ
ʣ׼׼׼ˣӦ
ôж

ȻʹĵйزûпչĹνҥ
ʱŵҥϣԸ̬ȣͬʱչԤǵ
ѧӴ֪ʶǵ֪ȷʵпֻܷһ
ڣʱܷ

ййزʹѪĽѵΪʲôйĵŲ
гԤ⣿ԤⲻһҪ׼ꡢ¡죬ĸУ
ǣǴڶϲشܷ˼׼룬
Է֡ǺЧġ

Ҳרҵʿ˶Щ׼ȷԤ⡱ҹ¶ۣǣ
еרҵ֪ʶĵרҡرǸԤ⡢ֵרǣӦΪο
ϣ÷ֹǿչĿҲи
ȡ

ϣǵĵңǵĿѧңǵܹȡһδѪ
ĽѵչաֽȻֺ͵޶ȡ

(XYS20080518)

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ΪʲôܰոߵĿ׼У

zh123jp

ϿпԺԺʿԴ˴εУᵹ,Ժʿ˵Ҳ
ʵ飬УᶼǴ󿪼䣬ͬ±լͰ칫׵,ѧУ
дȺĵطΪʲôܰոߵĿ׼죬ʱ򲻽
֤ʦİȫѳʱסⷽձֵ
ǽձȫдĽѳоͰѧУҽԺ͸
ݵȣЩǰոһ׼,Ҳ
÷չˮƽ󣬲ȫհձ飬Ҳε
УеҪũõö࣬Ҳȷʵ˵÷չˮƽͿϢϢ
ءѧУǹɹͶʣũжӦһ׼ִ
ȷʵӦãԺʿ˵ı׼һ£ִһ£Ǿ
ˡ˴εһоƽʱķ֪ʶ̫ȱˣ
ʱǧܣΪѾˣҸΣգӦþͽܣ
´»Сռ䣬һⷽľȥҲ
ô࣬ȥߵǣεȥҲṩ
ʾлԸǵĹҴӴ˸ӲʢԸǵӴ˲ĥ
ѣҲҪѲʹǵһҲ̫ˣƽʱ
˶һػһʺ򣬹ذϧ

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ΪʲôôѧУڵеʲӣ

ߣweilai10000

ΪʲôôѧУڵеǽ࿽֮
һεѧУı׵´νۿΪʱ硣
٣Ŀǰǲѧġ

Ҫ⣬ֵнͳơ
ռؽǶ٣ͬͽﵹıǶ٣ͬ͵Ľ
׼ǲͬģסլ ȣ

Ϊʲôֱ׸оѧУ׵Ϊεֺɵ
ѧУҽԺȹ˽϶Ӷ˴ҸĹ
עȴĵεʱǰ죬˶
ѧϰȺԼУԹصĵƱסլ
ϡ٣ȻҲ٣סլǷӡε
ҹѧУҽԺ٣סլ˶࣬ҵעȻἯסլ
ѧУҽԺĵ򲻻ᱻǹġѵ»ɡΪʲô
ôסլڵе

ûͳƣûнС˫äաǰǻжѧУǷ
׵ ΪʲôôѧУڵеҲ޴

ҵ̨εĲϸⶨ޶봨Ϊ
80Ҷȴʮһȡ

˵ͷŵָ꣬Ҷһصǿ
̶ȵĳ߶ȣҶǴ޸еɽӸĹ۵ĳ̶ȷģǽΪֱ
۵ָꡣĿǰʹõĵҶȱУ޶ҶȱModified 
Mercalli ScaleMMSҪΪô޲ã MSKҶȱ
ҪΪŷ޸ʹãΪάݷʩͿп1964ģ
߽Ҷȱ1949ɭҹ1999䲼ĵҶȱУҶȻ
Ϊ12ÿһεֻһ𼶣ͬصĵҶǿԲͬġ

⻹ҶȡҶȡҶ50ڣ
һ㳡£ԽΪ10ҶֵҶһͲ
õػҶȡͬĻҶǲͬģͬĿҶȻ
Ҳһ

ҹ𡷹淶Ҫ԰;Ϊࣺ

ཨش̺͵ʱܷشֺĽ

ཨʱʹùܲж辡ָĽ

ཨסҡһ㽨

ཨҪ

ĸȼĽյؿҶơͬǼཨ
ڲͬҶȵĵƱ׼ǲһġ

ǹڽϺȽˮƽǲģرͨ
ҵ棬ڼĲ࣬ڵֻǾ÷Ĳࡣ
⣬ʵҲͷ⡣п׼Ҳ
ܲ䵽ʵܲЧල

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뵲ǽ̽"ΪʲôôѧУڵе"

: xyz007

˵һƪС(XYS20080514)õ˵ǽѵ(XYS20080515)
ǳлǽѵ֣кܶཨԼһרҵʿɡ
˲ѧϰģҲѧϰģǰûб
ǽЩ⡣ڴһЩ˵

> xys007"ΪʲôôѧУڵе"ƺݵ
> ҪԭΪҹĿƼˮƽΪм㲻ף

ҵԭѧУӵĽûпǵҲǽʱûаշ
׼˾û뵽ҹĿƼˮƽ󣬻ҹĿ
ƼˮƽȽҺܲΪʲôǽΪ"ƺ
ҪԭΪҹĿƼˮƽ"

> 1. "ĴĵУձѧУķӴŲᵹġ"
> ۶һϡձĴűʵĲͬձڰߵ
> صƵȸߣǿԵͣĴش½ڲڰڵ
> صƵȵͣǿȸߡ7.8ǳԴ𣬼Ƿڿˮƽ
> ߵձ˭Ҳ˵ӴŲᵹ

ǲϵģ˵˲оģҲûжٸݡ
ձļδУûмѧУҵı컹λ
ʮձˣҲ˵û˵ѧУҵ顣ʹУ
ҲȫУһ𱻻ɡ

> 2. "ձÿһӣϰյķӣʼ֮ǰҪнʦ
> нṹѧ㣬֤һĵҶʱᵹ"ǹҵĹ÷
> ȻѧУ֮ǰҲһҪнṹѧ㡣ˣ
> Ϊ6ȼϵĽпơЩǹҿƹ
> ϶Ĺ涨Ȼ嵽һѧУ裬ͷ᲻͵ϣ
> 糤ǻ᲻˻ؿۣܲǲ˺Ͳö֪ˡ

˵ձÿһӵĿǰ㡣неļ飬ûд
ǰһʿ(梳)ڼʱܵ˾ҪͺôһЩֽţ
ϸһЩĸֽм㣬ȡʸ˼̡
ǽ˵"ǹҵĹ÷"Σȫҹķɺ걸
ʵʽб֤رǶѧУ÷ͨϰյķӡ

> 5. "Ҫǽձ෢ҵľ飬͵
> ҡ"ʵǹҲδ𣬾ҲܷḻֻǼҳæ
> úѧ٣æŽѧûѧһӦԾ֪
> ʶڿǹҵˮƽձࡣЩз
> ĶҲǰ棬ܿԱĴ֮

ûԸҲûȤǹҵĵˮƽŵǽ˵
"ڿǹҵˮƽձࡣЩз
Ҳǰ"ȻΪ֪ʶͷͨϰգ
СѧѧУһƬհס
ÿͥ׼һӦһЩȫѧУݻ߹ݿ
ΪѳʱαԼξȻˣκͼȡϵ
СѧУ׶԰ÿĵѵȫÿ·ݵķ¡һЩС
ʵʵ飬ձĵ飬ڵʱǻᷢõġ
Ȼй͸ָֺӶԲˡ

ձĵӦƣҲ⵽ýʹڵûпһ
ý˵лִлĻ
⼸죬ǹҵűʼѧϰձķˡϣȷʵѧϰ
һЩҪ㣬ڽĵܼһЩ

> ΪʲôôѧУڵейܶһ򵥣һ
> ԭǾˮƽһڱͲǮĳЩ˴Լ
> 

ձҲ͵ϵĽ˾Ǳ¶Ժ󣬾ͻᱻ̣⳥ס
˾Ʋ
Ҳзִϣһ⣬ǲָˮƽˣ
ӾͻᰲȫˡҲûΨͼˡ

ϣϵ˵ܼٵǽѶԱǰµ⡣
Ըҵı粻ٷ

(XYS20080518)

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йԤ

ߣҢ
  
  ϣָйֵȲšмⲻ֪ο
ǴѧģЩҲԼģڸϵ

1.㿴רҵ
2.ÿĸ߿,жѧԸⱨרҵ?ԸĺӴרҵ
3.йóڼվ,ж˻ԸһӻԾμӣ
Ȼбġ
4.ڵûзǰҪģչڼ⹤Ҫʽ
жԸ֧֣ȻֻҪͷ㹻ˡ
5.ʹһְҵرҰҵʹߵǾ޴ġ
ԵʹߵĴȹԱ߳һҲΪ֡ʵΣ

  ڽĴ󻷾£û˲ԸѧϰоҪ
һԾЧȻҲźĴ˲ŵ
ûо޴Ͷ룬ƾʲôҪлر

    ûгԶ۹ģûз֮ǰûӣ

    мģ鷢ǿģ
  
   ˽ģ漰ؼ⣬ҪԼʱԶȾѵöࣻ
  
    Ժܴģʹܿͻʧѵ˼ȡ     

    ˣˡ

    ʵйµʹرǵоǷǳǰ;ġֻҪ㹻ӣ
Щһ굽򣬼ֲиؼ⡢ойһͻơ
˷ʥͣûĴûĳֻ֧֣дڶְҵӣû
ָ߿״ԪΪʲôѡרҵҲûɻɣǻһΡ

(XYS20080518)

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Ԥѵһӡȴ޷ĵ½صԤ

Ҳ

2005829쫷硰ȡ°¶Χɵľ޴ƻ
823Bahamas γɣ24ͨϲʱKatrina
֡ȻǿȼӴ󣬽ī塣ڵ˷ĿƼʱôһ
Ŀ֮ں˼Ȼﻹǳġ⡱29·
˹/ȵ½ݺݵŰһΪʷصʮ
Ȼ֮һΪʲôûԤ֪ɢǣٲȫߵʱ
ڹ̽ף·յ˹֮ʱȴø֮һ弶
쫷硰ÿСʱٰʮһԽī壬ֱݺ
ߣָ˹١쿴ӣŶԴ֪һ

һȥܼ򵥵⣺һֱʮٹıˮĴ
תĴԽٶ(гٶԿ)½һ·ϻ - 
ڽӽ½ǰǼǿĿܵ½ص(Ҫ100)½
ǰü - ô򵥡ԶԶĸӵööࡣ
֮ĵ½صԤ - Ҳɴƻĵط֪
ǿ()֪ĵ½֮Ƿɢɢʲôأ
еȺڵľͺסҪڵ½ص㡣ܵȵǳӽ¾ģ
ΪɢһЩ˿ڳܵԱҪһʱ䡣

Ԥ쫷еģ

(1) ۲ռݣǣ(buoys)װķɻ(ɵ쫷Ͽ)
״ȡʱǹؼأ

(2) Щݡ۲(쫷ӭԵ½ش)һ
Ϊӵѧģȥ㣻

(3) ʹõĳټǧξ޴ļ㣬
һܵķ;ѽȴ쫷(NHC)͵طȥһ
չ(NWS)õĳԤ;

һǳؼַǳѡΪһּ
Сʱĳټʱ䡣ȼ쫷ֵµĵص㡣Ҫ
룬¼㡣⣬ĵڶּѧģ͵ȻǼ
˵ģ˴½ش״ڲϱ仯Խ
ǳȷܾǸԡһָĳ򣬵
Ǽȴ˵ָ򶫱ĳΪ˽⣬ͬʱüּģͼ㣬
бȽϡټЩģͶʹùܶΣһ¿Ŷȡ
ǵõʱĵ̨ʾּģͼһּģͽָ
ȫͬ󽲽ԱҲ˵Ƚּ

ԥصĵ㿪ʼǵɢ֮ãĿǴ˹(
бķ)ӡΪ̵ġѡ֮á45ŹϵĶ³˹
ֱ˹·޷ - վͳҲˡǲأҲû
ͳܵȡƽʱֻһСʱԿĵطȻ˿һ졣
ǳעڹ㲥쫷Ƚȷ˵쫷緽еƫҲ
¾ĿȥȥȻǼΪ㡣һ·Ͽ˹ȥȻһ
һŵġϣַƫһ㣬쫷½صʹ
ƫ˹١ʵKatrina޷緽ҲָݵġֻڽӽԶ
ʱͷ򣬽·˹ݡǡ֮壬ʧ֮ǧ

(XYS20080518)

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ԳɶĶ

ߣ

δıĳɶӺ󣬸˸ţȫƽ
Ҳ״ΡϿĻţ˵˶û飬
־ԸߣڻԼ⣬ҰϢľ
ӡ

89ΪԼѾǸˣεı
֣Ȼ£Ҳһ

Զˣٺǣвֵľˣҽ־Ը
ֳܵ𺳺ĥ¾͸ԣֺҪؽģ
²Ƿݡ 

(XYS20080518)

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ѧҽ1ǰĴΣ

ҵ־National Geographic
ԭĵַ
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/05/080516-earthquake-predicted.html
룺п

512Ĵʡط֮ǰԼ10£һѧ
йһδ͵

ѧͨϸоͼҶĴʡĵؿǶϲʮȺ
о֮󣬷Ͼ档

20077ڵġؿǡ־Уйŷ޺Ŀѧд
ϲĳѾһǿҵĺĵǱΪ
ԵԴ

ѧҵĽǣؿײڱۻԵʽͷų

ڿԤԾȷ˲оԱĶϲڱ
Ĳɫͼϱʾ˳ʱⳡС

Ϸ˹ѧĵоϢĵMicheal EllisͬʱҲ
о֮һʾ֪ǶЩԾϲΨһ
顣

512յ7.9𼸺ĴʡĲֵΪƽءйٷ
5ˣ5˽޼ҿɹ顣

־

ȷйٷ20077µıȫûвΪ
ڵľ档

ѾȷıʾЩԾϲǱEllis˵
ϢʵϱһѧڿEllisϣ÷滻Ѿ
ݵĽԱδı硣

ǰȥЩСʹ򡱣Ellis˵ݶû
ʹüӹ̲ϣЩûש

˵ɱԽϸߣĴʡľȴʮ
ƶ

𱳺Ŀѧ

ĵ

ǵ֤ʾ1200013000ǰʼʼհʹر
ĵ𡣡Ellisͬȥıд

ڽܹҵŵĲɷʱEllis˵,˵2008꣩
ԭӡȺ޵ؿǰҲ赲ײԼΪһ20-22
ס

˴ײʼ5ǧǰʱӡ·ײŷް顣

Ellis˵ϲźظԭǴײвġ

ӡȰײޣҵʱͲ˵ظ
ԭƶ

εصɽ򶫱߳ɶƽԭƶһλûв20077
ĵѧңѧRoger Bilham˵

ⲻĴ

Ellis˵ظԭƣصвݣ
Ҹմӿóŵһ

EllisָصϲԵڶϲһ࣬ԵĵвĴһ

Ellis˵:ϲŵصĲƲʧķշǳ֮Ϊ
д˿ھסǨƹȥ

ռĴһߣΪ˿ڣࣩӡᲴ
ʵĽ׼

ңӡȰײأµĶϲ㡱ͬʱҲζ
µΣա

(XYS20080518)

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ȫ

  
2008-5-16Ƹʱ

51214ʱ35ң봨10ӣĸ߲㽨
ǿңаǷ׷״ӻζĸֽˮܳȴﲻ֪

ⳡȫĵ˿ʼϰʶѸٶ̵ף
¥е˲¥ܣҪ˵¥Ͳ㽨е˿ܣ
Ҫü̵ĶͷϷԷ߿׹˵ǰȫĳзʽȡ

ֲ⣬пΪǲ׷ʣѧ˱رķ֪ʶǷ
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λйΨһּ߽Ϲֺѧߣʮ
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ֲֺ

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