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08.05.19, κ¡ոлļ䡷
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ոлļ

κ@xys

Ҷʱļ䣬ȫסԺ棬ꡣ
ŽȥѧУǶڲٳϿΡԺ֪Щ1976ɽ
йأһꡣӡлһǴѧУĲٳվ
һţĬϹŰ֣ڽǽҺĺڰдšë
ϯꡱѧļ֣ΪֿںţȻҲ
ʲô˼

ʱͬҲʲôʲôѡǶԼ
Ҳ֪飬Сû˸ҽֱʹɽ
ԮļλǵҲֻһλ˵ﴦǲӬ
вμӾԮ˶ӡ˵ʱԮٱԵ̵ˣ
һǹһҲĳѵҲƲΪҪ


Ҳʱͨý塱Ϳģֻǵ͸쵼ιػ
񡢴־֣ǶⳡѾ֪Ȩ
ˡʹѾȥˣĴûм䣬
ʱûиܵʹࡣ

Ҳ֪˵ǷʵΪҿʷࡣһУ
ǳѵ˽⾹˵ĿԼʮǰڷ¼ʮ


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ӹ͹ķгأȻҲ˲ˣϱ
ʹ࣬û˼䡣

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ʮĽ죬еϿգվĬĶ
ᵿĲΰ䣬ǲѵƽա

ȥʮ꣬䡣ȷǿĽ
ķӦٶǰδУһʱپֵһߵӰᣬˡ
ҽԼ־Ը᣻˹ʵľԮȻһ
Щѧ˶ƽأֻǶΰ䡣

죬ȻӦüסʲôǵĺӣϣסʲô

ϣ鲻ٱϣýϿģֻǵ
쵼ֵĳϣ࣬Ͼܹ˼סġ
ѵģѱɵľ޴ı磬ĳЩ쵼֯Ĺ¡
ǵȻԸʮǰʷ֪ԼԶ
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ϣÿ񲻷ԼȨεʹĵģһֱ
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ϣİ֮ȫעؽѲ
طٴηϣǵľУϣй
ũСѧУղ飬ϣѾһϵƶȺϵϣ
רҵԮܹ쵽

˻౯Ѹ裬ҺǶʹĽѾ
ոչȥѩһҲ֪ڲõĽǸ̫ƽʢİ˻֮
󣬻ж˳עĴؽעǾǮȥ
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ӦüסѺͱʹ࣬ԼʹӦȡĽѵ
۵ľ飬Ĺ¡˺ýҵ߶ֻ
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˵ǹȥζűѡΪЩ˽ʷˣ
ظʷҪѽ潨ãӦóԵһƬ
棬ԶԶá

ֻ¼˾ӣҵĺй
磺һʵйͬж 

(XYS20080519)

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˺ۡһľʦĴֺ˼

ߣ齣

512ŵĴǣ˵񾭣봨ѸٳΪ۵Ľ㡣
εءʧء7Сʱڣٷ
8000ˣܶطӼΪƽءҾʵܴﵽ7
ˣ˲пܴﵽ20ֱӾʧܴﵽԪٿǼӾ
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1	ڿѧ㣺

ΪһƵȻֺÿȫ綼ᷢһϵдСС
ʷششʧĸҶȵʷ顣ҹ
ɫĽǴСѧͿʼܳ20ľйɫ˼
ѧǹؼʱ̣Щѧܾһˣֻпѧı
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ΣİƼʷҲ⵽˱Ӧܶ
ԤּܶԱˮƽͣݾǹŴź
ԤĺضǣΪʲôִƼԤˣԴΪ
ݣʼִƼתһѾСɫʡġѧ
ĵϹèӵġԤۡҵгʵϣҲ
ʷνĵضǡȻûز֤ʷϣǸݹΪĹ
˵мһֱӣΧͷй
𲨴Ӿ͵ǣָʾ˵ķλʵ
ϣ˵һɺԣȵֲԶ
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÷˥䡢䡢˲һϵиӵĹ̡ʮָӣ
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ĵ𲨶ãʹܵ΢СŶĵ޷Ԥ⡣һ˵
ָʾҲֻΪֺ󱨸棬ܡԤ⡱ԣ
ĽӦúú÷˼йƼʷĽͼȼֺ

2	ս㣺

ԤΪԤԤԤԤҪо
ΪĽѧݡԤΪ׼
ʣƶӦԤΪݡԤѧѾ𽥼
ⷽоԭܼ򵥣߶ȸӣ׼ȷʱռԤ׼ȷ
ԵֲԤֻܼϣгԤõ
ӦԤ׼һֺԵ
չԮʧٵ͡

Ϲ㷺СϼģΪһЦΪġɹ
ȷĻΪķȫһȷĹɾġоȷ
ԵģɡȡͲĿǰѧľ
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ParkfieldڴڵԾڣÿʮһε𣨺
39һ19ңҽûȥˣ7εļ൱
йɣĵѧԤ⽫19891992꽫һεڸ
˴Ĺ۲м⡣Ȼһֱ2004ⳡǧʼ
źǣȻ˴ĸȫй
ܺͻ࣬ Ҳֻǿľʵǵڵѧ
׼зˡ

Nature200510¿һƪģʾɿĶڵԤȻ޷
[1]

˵Լ20ǰѧʶʥ˹ϲ40ﳤ 
Parkfield֣пܻýӽһδĸĵط 
ǰװһܶȺܴ磬һ1857ٷ6
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У20049ڷһ6¼ʾǰδ
ĵ̵ĳЩ棬ûзκι2004Parkfield
ǰסԣһܼܵĵɿĶڵԤƺ
ȻġArticle p. 969Nature 437: 7061 13 October 2005

ЧķּϵǼֺʧĹؼĿǰʷֵּ
ѾͼֺԤת˶ֺԤֺЧؽǷּ
˼һҪת䡣зַּĹڲԤ
ͬʱ߿ӴзּϵĽ衣
ձǵ෢ͬʱҲۺľʵ ⷽ൱ɹ
ûп˵ձĴεԤô׼ȷڸεձ
൱ٵԱ;ʧֺҲܿ ٵؽоԮͻָ衣
˵ڷַּ棬ձһɹĵ䷶

㣬ϴξŽѾڡǿּصԶ
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ҵ˽ҵģûоҵгĽû뽨
ֵĹΧʵϣصĽؾ֣ڷƲ
⣬ԵطĽȫû𵽶á

εؼķӾԾ˿顣Ĵɶʮ
ھʣ񵰺񳲵˰³Ƶ͵ĽȺĻǽû
һξƷƷȻڲ̶ͬȵ͵ϣڶ
ƣ߱õԡˣʹƻҲû
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ʲͶ˷ˣҲשͷȽϣûо
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·ʱ򶼲˵ʲôˡЩũҲûп
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һȼԺţҪҵȶԷݽ
мӹ̡ЩѧУ70ƽķҲ˹ܡԣѧ
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ҡΣ֤һСʯשͷ;ҡ
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Ȼǰשͷ׻ζﲻæСʵпԿ
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ڿܽṹǽȫΧãҲԿܶã
ڽṹжԣʹýƫȫԿܽṹķӣ
󿪼ȫصɡйڿרҡйѧԺԺ
ʿԪԺʿ˵ҵʦأĲɷãΪѧУУĿ
⡱ΪܿǼΪĿĿŤԭġ
ԭô˵ģĹ۵㣬Ҳ̫޳ˡΪһϸľ
̵ıôˮ׼ġУڿ󡢴أȷʵԿ
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ӺܶҴߵ󲿷شĽѧ¥Ǵƻ
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ÿƵĽṹ䵹Ҳ˳׵ĵǹؼ
ֵɵ㣬ײ̬ƻܱ֤δ
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ԣشݽṹĿ㣬ʩõ
Ҫأ𼶹⣬ǲѧģҲǲʵǵģ
ҶȵĽ﷢Ҳ˶ڵ˲ͳ
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ԣӦüǿ֪ʶǿطĽ
ܵȣ½סլ뽨ֵĹ֮Уʵãṩ
һЩṹũ巿ݽṹı׼ͼֽԽԱʵǩָƶȣ
֯Աѵʵũ巿ݽг֤ϸڡȻҪְЩ
ҩĻǮ֤ǲշѽз񣬾ר򲦿

4	Ҷ

ĿǰҪһ𼶣һҶȣй
ȱhttp://www.hnccic.com/Web/HTML/oftendata/cysj13.htmlǰǵ
ͷĶǵƻ̶ȵĶܶͨ˶
ֲһͬ𼶵ĵģʽͬԴǳͬͬо࣬
ҶҲͬΧСĵطڵͬҲγĲ졣
һɽͷҶȻһЩ˲Ŵã
ҲҶӡ

Ŀǰƻ̶Ⱥĳصĵҳ̶ȣҪ
ָꡪҶȡҲʹҶȣͬʱ볬ԽԼֵٶȵȹ
Ʃƽʱͨ˵ĿҪС𲻻ޣ𲻵
ССķֽ磬Ҷ֣ҶȵģͽС𣬽
ҶȺ֮͡ģ𣬳ģ𡣶
Ƶ֣ɳԽĿ׼
ҶӦʱֵٶȹˣ
൱һҶΪһָ꣬޷ֱָ
ƣĿƣʹ÷ֵٶȺһЩԵĵ¼Ϊ
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Ľ״ΪһҶȵָ꣬˹һ
ϵѭǼ䲻ģҾٸ򵥵ӣ

סصĵ״ٶ׵ȫһûκβ
ǲܵģǹ˼飩ͬʱֲͬһͼֽһ
ӣǼ׵صķû͵ϣܺãҵ͵Ϻأ
ȽϲȻ󣬼׵صķ٣ҵطء
ʱרҸҶȵָ꣬ͻ˵׵طݵٱȽϱȽ
СҶȽС6 -7ȣҵؾƵķӶҶȴﵽ9-10ȡ
ȻҵطݵĽ̾ͻҵҶȱȼ׵ظΪݣΪǵķ
ر⣺Ҷȴﵽ9-10ȣǵ7ȣԴ
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ԣϿԿҶָ꣬ǲΪ
滮ʱΪָģʺΪֺʧƵ㷿
ӵʲôģݷ״ϵ˿ܶȵȲ
ԽΪ׼ȷعֺʧҶθоԱۣϣı
һ״ҶָΪ̵ıӻɡ

Ҷָ꣬ĿϲûֱΪݣĿǰһ
ĽṹƣһȼķֵٶΪļָ꣬ͬʱ
ϣиڿϸƼƣشṹ
ƥĵٶȼ¼ʱߣʱ̷رҪĽṹ
û𡢺ܼƼƵشʩϣ
ȴΪּ׼Ǽûģ

5	ƶ

ҹƶѾλǰУԶԶʱҡ
ʱ塱ġ塱ҡһ㣬ڹٷҲȱð
سһ˽֪ʵεֺУصƵ
Ⱥ壺ѧˡũСƶߵȡƵΪ
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6	Եֺӳ̶Ȳ滮

εֺУһЩֵӡһһЩĻѧƷй
©ĿӦøӣΪƻĴֺ
һЩҪĻӦ޽ڵΣյشҵĳ֮ǰӦý
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ѧƷй©Ŀǰû͸ɿ֣֪ԻΧ˿ڲʲô
Ӱ졣

ĽϴƳ¾ƵĿⷿ⵽ƻʧءЩ
ʻӡʵյ¾ƵĿⷿӦýĿƵģƩ
лĴʩԱ֤ǰѴ𷭹̳Ӷỵһ

7	 ƿʹ͸ȣ

˵03걱ĳʡҷί5900ֿʡ
󣬾ͽ4700򣬷1100Уֽ1000򣬸100
֣ٴν50򣬷50ֿ50Ҳɹϵ
·ӵģûϵ񣬼ûõһǮϰյʡȥ棨
Ϊ¼طɣʡ߶ȽţЩ״
ˡ

׵͵Ϣ˵ֹͣйʮֻĺĳԺ
һ֯ܡԭǺʮֻ᲻ԭܼලЩ
ǿĹٷĸִ֯˲ġȱ͸ȣƿױ
Ų̰ۣ

Ƴǿʱ֣ǿգĻռշѵ
һ룬յıշѴ󲿷ֶƹӴԱԸ廨ˡ
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ͬǿҹٷĴ֯ǺЩԱһŴ
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εǸʻĽ̲ġ淴˼ܽᣬѸ䵽ʵ
10֮ڣҹ޹ڵֺСʵϣҶԴ˲û̫
ϣΪӽڣССĵҲʮˡһϰ⣬
ҲΪɼһжߡҪ˶ãվɸƽ

ǡڵ7Ĭ֮ʱдɣԴıԲͬ
еͬ飬Ҵͬ߳Ӱͬǵļ԰
ã

οף 1Parkfield 2004: late result Implications for 
prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. 
Nature 437: 7061 13 October 2005

(XYS20080519)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.dropin.org)(xys-reader.org)

Ĵ8ֺؽĽ

ߣ

һȽм򵥵ɨä

    ǿȺ͵Ҷͬĸ

    ǿȱʾһεͷĴСλx.xһƻ
ǿĵ7.0ϣʷߵǿ8.9ҶǺĳ
ڵʱƻ̶ȵеľ롢õ
ĵʹ졢ԴǿȵйأҶһ㻮Ϊ12ȼҶ
Ϊ12ȣΪԵ𡱡򵥵˵ĳеľԽС
ҶȾԽߣ籾Ĵ8.0봨ӳͱس
ĵҶȴﵽ11ȣΧ򣬱綼еĵҶȴԼ78֮
䡣

    Ϊ˱֤ڵʱ߱㹻ǿȡնȡɿԺ
ȫԣҰ䲼ǿԱ׼ƹ淶ӿĽǶȶԽ
ọ̈̄ṹѡ͡ṹ㡢ʩȷ棩Լ
һĿҶΪݣҶǸݸ۵ķ
ȷ50곬ԽΪ10475꣩ĵҶȼΪҶȡ
Ĵʡ󲿷ֵĿ׼7ȣ봨ȵȵأ
صﵽ89ȣҲһЩ6ȡ淶Ҫ6ȼϿ
ĵпơ

    ƵĿ꣬ͨ׽ǡ𲻵ޣС𲻻Ҳ
˵൱Ҷȵȼĵ޲Ҫܹʹã
ڴʱεҶȴﵽ10Ȼ11ȵ򣬽
ƻǱ뱣֤岻ܻԵرǲܷԵ
̮ӵӻУǿӳͱسﵽ׼
ҶΪ11ȣȻΡΡЩƺʩˮƽǺϸģ
Ҳ𲻵ĿȫʵֵġͬʱҲʹĵؿ
Զ100๫򣬺ܶཨﶼ̮ˣ򵥷
һԭ
 
ĴԭֺؽĽ
 
1.ڵĽʶΪ

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Ȼû㹻ӣȱ㹻ĵͿ֪ʶر
ǽṹĻ֪ʶΪ㣬ŴƬĹ۵㡣
һֲΪ㷺ʻΪƵĹҶԣ֮
й㷺֪ʶռڳʶΣʶܾߣ
ʶṹҪԡ
 
2.ƬǿԵʶת

    ҹеĽṹƹ淶󲿷ֶ߰ʮдģʱ
ȽϱȽƶʱȽ϶ȱṹƹ淶ڰȫˮ׼Ҫ
ܵͣȻ½޶нԼܵԭûб䣬ṹ
ڰȫԺ;Է뷢кܴࡣ

    ƽṹʽȻӽɱӦÿŹǿ
ṹռĿܽɱıѾСˣֵĳɱװװޡ
ˮů豸صռԽԽߡóɱϸߵĸ߲סլӣ30
ҵĸֽǽṹṹÿƽ1500Ԫȫ԰סۼȴ
ԪṹɱжȣѾԶԶ
70ˣʵùȥƶı׼ȥִ
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Ͼṹ¹ش󣬰ȫǵһλģȫ֤ˣָ꣬
ۡʡܻȻʲô壿
 
3.ͨĽṹѡӦش

    棬߲㽨ϿǵñȽȫʩҪִн
Ϊϸ񣬶ڳ߲㽨ṹʽرӵĽкµ
Է˸߲㽨ڴʱһܱ֤㹻İȫԴ
̮ĿԱȽСȫȱȽϸߡ

    10µͨԣֽǽṹãܶ
С߲סլ¥ֽṹʽǽɸֽֽɣ˲Լ
Ենȷǳ¥ҲֽģԷǳãʱ
ҲǾֲƻ̮

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رǡǿǿڵǿê̡˼룬ʱҪƻ
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Ͳ̮ϼƬǽܻøá

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Ѷȱӳ̶ȲṹѡͲʡʩˮƽϵͣСʩӣ
⣬Ƿһǡǡ㽨࣬ģ
һʱǳ㷺Σ

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ϲשṹǺɰɵשṹȲ
ػҲ޵Ȧཨľǿ
ʱм֮

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ڲȴرΪ˱֤ɹҪǽϴǽĺն
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ࡱϵࡱṹʽ¥Ϊֽֽ¥
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4.нļӹ̹̲ݻ

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10йϲǿҵΪƵζɽδ
ǿĿ൱ֻ׼ȷʱȷǶȽڰǻ
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ǰ봨ȵغլ˹㷺ļӹ̣εɵƻԱ
Ϊ١

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ӣƣʩ滮赥λļලʵ״̬
լ۴ӽṹѡͻǹ촦ѴﵽֿǿҵҪ󣬻
ڲ״̬˶һнղͼӹ̹̲ݻ

(XYS20080519)

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ߣJF

ĴеĿԤƻո

ܶ˵Ԥưĸֽ̫ˡȻɿһͨʵû˵
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ԤưֻֽҪ󼴿ɡټԤưڹԤơ
ܺãǿغСȻĽǣԤưĸֽ
õĸֽҪٵĶࡣԤư壬ֽֽ壬
ǵһҪҪ

Ԥư廹иôǸЧܺáᣬɷ羰Ϊʲôˢˢ
ѣΪõθ˿ֽǿˣ½
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2⡣

ʹԤưķݣһ㻹ṹԤưֱӸ֮ϡ
һȦԤưêȦ֮ϣЩ룬
ΪʡǮ嶼ʡǸûǮڹʩôȦ
ĹʡˡʱݾһԣԷݡҲҪ
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ȥΪΪķˮʱ¥ֽ壬
ܷǳãêƻĽȶС
ǽڶ࣬Ҳãױ𵹡ʹҲγռ䡣

ΪõĿģȴ˴۾ݣҲǲõġ

(XYS20080519)

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ܷڴͳĻĹ

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봨ŦԼʱ SIMON WINCHESTERһƪ
Ϊʷ𶯡£ٴμй˵񾭡ȻŦ
Լʱִ֮ļҲǿѨ磬ʱ˿̣ҲӦ
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ˣΪУûʸȥҲšĳһ
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ѹֻ⵽˵ļڵԤȫ綼ûй˵
⣬Ҳûа취ȷǲΪǶźضǵĹźʹ
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ȴܲ˵Ѿص˹ˡ봨֮һλͿ
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Ԫǰ3Ҷ̫Ľ˼룺̲ߡ
ʱˡؽǡġݽӳɽڴĵΡ
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໥棬Ϊϵ֤˷顢ȡˮ˺ˮۺЧĳַ
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ﵱȻֿѣȻڵ룬
Ȼɡ촴ͽǻۡߵĴԲƻȻԴ
ȻԴΪΪǰᣬ亦Ϊʹˡءˮ߸߶Эͳ
һΪˮԴõĵ䷶ң̬
Ϊ̵ĳá̩ȶ˼ʵĸ

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޽߹̵ʱȷʵкܶȦɵǻ۵㣬ֵ
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ʱշֲìܵĽ취ΪҲΪˣڽ춼֮
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ο߹ֻ̱һˮˮʩˮ£ͨ
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ֵת־ȷϼصĺֺȻǳ
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ˮ⣬ҹȴһֱ²֪жٻӢΪŭ
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ᡣڵֻ֮ķˡ֮ˮ
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ϲڴɫʵĴͳĻ֮У߻Ҫϵضִѧ
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ſѧҥֹ 

 lavendersky
http://lavendersky.blogcn.com/diary,15895026.shtml

    ȥˣੲݵ۵ԤԤ⣬
֣һӲҪ˻ϳϼҵشһЩ8ε
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ڵļ֪ʶҷ

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http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_48c1ea32010097vq.html

һӱϽǵͷһַʽһĹǣ
С֮д𣬴֮С𡣸ɣҶԣд


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أڵһ߶һŶпܴһ˵ĵҲǵ
ԤԵԭ֮һſƼڵԤⷽ棨prediction
ǻڷʵforecastйķչǰġ

ڹʵԤԤоչļ桷   Vol.Mar.21 
No.I2005
1997꣬(ѧ(Science)־Ԥ(Earthquakes can not 
be predicted)һ(Gelleret al ., 1997)ڿѧǿҷ죬
ԤԤоһ͹ȡ72004꣬Ȼ(Nature)־
ġ˼·ľ䡷(A seismic shift in thinking,Cyranoski, 2004)ָ
ԤԤоʼ֡¡һܴתۡ
Ӧ˵һת۲żȻģ¼Ӧúͼֲи̽Ǵʹһ
ת۳ֵĺҪԭ򡣶һ˵Ǽֲио̽ʹ
ѧץס¼ĻͼڼϵԤԤ
һЩչҪڽЩֲио̽԰
ڼڵԤԤо˼뷢չ硣һʱڵķչǶڵ
ԤԤоǶڿѧʷнġ˽ԤԤ
˼뷢չʱҪȷһǣӢﾳеfoercasting
prediction뺺ﾳȫͬĺ(D.D .Jackson,2004.Earthquake 
forecasting and predictionԤӡ)޵ίԱ(ASC)ǰϯG. 
Gibson˵(G.Gibson,2004.½ʻ飬)forecasting˵
something would happen(probably)prediction˵something will 
happen (definitely)ǰܶѧΪԵ˵forecasting
predictionǲܵģڣ۵Ϊforecastingǿܵģ
predictionǳѡһСת䡣

ĴǿǰԲı仯
Ĵ 4(ܵ125) 200712
׹ϲ1 , 1 , н2
(1.Ĵʡ, Ĵɶ610041; 2.ʡ, ϡ
650041)
ժҪ: Ĵ30186ǿǰֵԲ
ı仯˷оܽʾ, 쳣ǿƽ
еȵƵ쳣ΪжǷǿָ; еȵ
쳣ǰ, Сƽ쳣Ϊж϶Ƿǿݡ
AֵGLֵĿռ쳣ֲΧ, ϵ챳, С
Ԥ

ͨĴ30186ǿǰֵԲ
Сڱ仯зоܽ:
(1) 쳣ǿƽеȵƵ쳣ΪжĴ
Ƿǿָ;
(2) ڳеȵƵ쳣ǰ, Сƽ쳣Ϊж
ǷǿĲο;
(3) A ֵGL ֵĿռ쳣ֲΧ, ϵ챳, 
СԤ
2003Ҧ, Ĵǿƽ4ı, 2̳
ĴеȵǿԤʾĴδ̫ʱڷ6
ǿĿԽϴ, ӦмӵĶڱ仯, Կֵܳ
Сƽ쳣ӦԸ߶ӡ
2003Ҧ26Ľ2ʱ, Ĵеȵһֱ
ˮƽ, 200511, Ĵ3.5ϵʼԾ, ̳
2Ƶ쳣, ĿǰĴǿ֮Ӧ2쳣
鱨Ľ1( 19771978) , ڳǿֵġ, 
Ĵȱǿı, ֵеȵǿԤʾ
δ̫ʱڷ6ǿĿԽϴ󡣡

ɵɽ- ɽѴֽϰǿΣ
׹ϲ1 ,2) ѧ2) ˼ά2) 2) 1 ,2)
1) ɶѧ,ɶжŶ·1 š610059
2) Ĵʡ,ɶ·29 š61004122 2 (117125)
й2006 6
ժҪ28 ̨,b ֵռֲѴֶεĶ
ֵϷ,ʷǿ𱳾,شɽ- ɽ
ͬѶεֽϰ,бǱڵǿΣն䡣о
:ɽѴ- ϶δ6 вֽͬϰԵĶ,,- 
ïضδԸӦµƵ-С״̬, ΪɽѴ
δܷǿĵض;- ƽδԸӦµϡ- 
С״̬,δпܷǿ𡣶ɽѴеẽѶκͻ
Ѷ,ԼϪϲƫ͵Ӧˮƽ,䲻ǰ
ǿй,δ̫ʱڸĿԽС

(1) ɽѴ- ϶Ŀǰ6 вͬϰԵĶ䡣,- 
ïضδڸӦµƽ𼶽ϴƵС𻬶״̬,ڱо
ѴδܷǿĵضΡλڸöѴ벻ιɱ
總Ľ- ƽ,ϲڽϸӦµϡС״̬,δ
пܷǿ𡣱- ضĿǰеƫӦµС
״̬,ǿ,һӦܡȫΡԼ봨ε
ϲڵͻϵӦˮƽµС״̬,ǿĿԲ
(2) ɽѴлѵb ֵռֲ,ϲԴڴ
ѺǿȻָ׶,ΪеƫӦˮƽµƵС;ö
ѴẽĿǰеƫӦˮƽµϡС𻬶Ϊ,ǿ
ԽС
(3) 1933 귢Ϫ7.5 ĿǰڵӦˮƽ,ǿ
ĿԽС
,߻,ɽѴҲڶͬϰԵĶ,߻
͵ˮӶѴ- ľӶѴȽ,ǿƽʱҪö,
ԵbֵĶĳ߶ҪСöࡣǷöѴнϵ͵
ֽ(,2004 ;Zhang , et al . ,2004) ӶӦ۵
ҲȽϵй? дһо
жΣնϲ,ʱĳ߶Ӧ- ,ѶΣյʱ
޸ȷеĶ塣һдڸͬоӦжϡĿ
ǰо˵,жԸӦҪǻڽ20 ĵԡ
,Щ,ڹȥ20 дڸӦĻ״̬,
Ӷ,- ڵĽǶ,δĵΣҲߡ


Ĵ7ϵΣԷ
ѧ
(йֵо, , 100081)
ʵ̬2002/12
ժҪĴ1800 7 ϵʱԼ1900 
Ĵ7 ϵй½޴֮عϵͳƷ, 
õ½: 1800 Ĵ7 ϵʱƽԼΪ
16 , Ϊ34 , Ϊ3, ʱ23 µռ83%1900 
, Ĵ7 ϵƽʱΪ11 , Ϊ19 , Ϊ3 ꡣ
1900 Ĵ7 7 ϵ֮ǰ1 3 й½
7.7 ϵľ޴𡣴1976 ĴѾ26 ûз7 
ϵ, ԶԶƽʱֱ, 2001 11 14 ຣ2
½緢8.1 ޴, ָܿʾδ1 2 , Ĵ
7 ϵ𡣴2003 ӦþĴ7 ϵĿ!

ǰĴ7 ϵʱй½
ľ޴Ĺϵķ, õĽ, 1800 Ĵ7 ϵ
ƽʱΪ16 , 1900 Ϊ11 ꡣĴ7 ϵ
Ե·Ʒֲ, ÿ34 º89 ·ıԴȻ
ʡ
1900 Ĵ7 7 ϵǰ1 3 ҵʱй
½7.7 ϵľ޴𡣴1976 ĴѾ26 
ûз7 ϵ, ԶԶƽʱ, ȱ7 ϵı
2001 11 14 ຣ2½緢8.1 ޴, 
ܿζĴһ7 ϵѾӽ, δ1 2 
ʱھͿܷ! 2003 зĿܡ, Ҫעÿ3
4º89 ¡

20041226ӡ8.7ҹ½ƵӰ
ѧ
(йֵо, , 100081)
ʵ̬ >>200501
ժҪļҪ2004 12 26 ӡŴ8.7 
ı, 1900 ȫ8.5 ϵ֮ҹ½
Լӡ8.7 ĸӦ, εҹ½
ƵĿӰ, ӡצۺ7 ϵҹ
½7 ϵĶӦϵ

Ķȫ8.5 ϵĵҹ½7 ϵķ
򵥵ͳƷ, : 2004 12 26 ӡŴ8.7 
, ȫתµĵ׶, δ12 ڴڷ
8.5 ϵĿԡĿǰҹ½ܴƽ, 
ųδ12 ڷ7ϵ, 2005 ڷĿԲ
ӡצۺ7 ϵҹ½7 ϵûͳ
ȷĶӦϵ, ӡצۺ7 ϵҹ½7 
ϵжӦԤûġ

Լĵжָо
ѧ
(йֵо100081)
2007.4 Vol.27No.2
ժҪ:һͳѧеļΪĵбָȡķ
й½1930ƵΪжй½7
ϵ5ϵƵбָꡣо5ϵƵ
Na5>=31ʱж6겻7ϵΪб;Na5<=10
ʱж6ᷢ7ϵΪб;11<=Na5<=30 ʱ
жǷᷢ7ϵ;Na5>=24ʱж67
ϵΪбĿΪ5%20025ϵ
ƵNa5=7б˿2008й½ܷ7
ϵж20035ϵƵNa5=28б
Na5>=24ж2009겻ᷢ7ϵ𣬷ĿΪ5%÷Ҳ
ǰ쳣бָȡ

ʱ-𼶿Ԥģʽϱ
ֶΣеӦ
׹ϲѧ
ժҪΪ˶ϱͬĳڵΣԣʱ-
Ԥģʽϸʷ𸴷ΪĻϣϱ39
Դ27ԴĶֻظϳʱ-𼶿Ԥͳ
ģͬ͡Դĵ𸴷ֳϺõʱԤΪԼ
Խ𼶿ԤΪʱԤģΪԴδ
ĸʽ˹㣬ͬʱ𼶿ԤģͶδ˴Թ
ơδ30ڣ39Դ5Pc0.45Դ
λϱ϶Ρ


2020ǰй½7ϴƵκԤĳо
A preliminary study on prediction of number and maximum magnitude of 
great earthquakes (MS7.0) before 2020 in china's continent
<< >>200601
 ,  ,  , FU Zheng-xiang , DING Xiang , WANG Xiao-qing 

ӦöرŬģ,о20062020½7ϴƵ
μ,Լ𼶵Ԥ.о,20062020½
7.07.97.57.91ϵĸΪ1.00,81ϵ
Ϊ0.67,˵϶ᷢ7,107.07.917.5
7.9Ŀ.ˮƽ0.10,7.07.9
ٷ 8,෢ 12; 7.57.9Ϊ14,128.0
8.9.2020ǰй½𼶿Ϊ7.57.9
.ų 8Ŀ.

ɽ8.1ԴؿˮƽαӰ
The Effect of Kunlun Mountains Ms8.1 Earthquake to Curstal Horizontal 
Deformation in the Sichuan and Yunnan Areas
<<й >>200701
 , ɭ , ŷ˪ , Ͽ , Ƽ , 紺 ,  

Ϊ˴(ϴ߶)Ӧ䳡ʱձ仯,͹۵˶,
תĻʹȡеƵӦϢΪӦ
ģ.ݡйؿ˶۲硷λڴGPSվĸ
(1999ꡫ2001ꡫ2004),1999ꡫ2001˶Ϊο(׶α䱳
),20012004з2001ɽ8.1
ҪӰ.:ɽ8.1Դ˿ʶӰ,
ķʽα䱳һһ;ǰ˶ǳ;
λƳҲ,GPSվλһΪ;ǰӦ䳡
Ϊԡϱѹ,Ϊ;ĴΪ
ѹϱ,ѹΪ,ϵšѹ,
Ϊ;ǰӦΪ,λڴĶ缰;
ĴΪ(ԽԽ),ϲΪ͵.Ͽ,
ɽ8.1ԴĻл,صӦע-μ
.

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