                          ˿µϣ20080528գ

08.05.28, ӡԤʵ
08.05.28, 齣ӡһľʦĴʡУᵹԭĽ͡
08.05.28, ˾ϡ俴Ϸĩ桷
08.05.28, ˮԤԤ
08.05.28, ѰǵԤһЦ
08.05.28, ľӡϾס
08.05.28, ΢ƳԤĻԡ
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08.05.28, linhaiίǵ¹򵽽ԭ
08.05.28, ЦЦζġ⵳ѡ
08.05.28, KurtάBBCϴʴˡ
08.05.28, Ĺ͡Ÿ߹Աļֺ͵Ǹ
08.05.28, һϲƾԮ
08.05.28, lanatosideйıչ˾Ϊʲôûеգ
08.05.28, ͿΪ롱
08.05.28, blueseaɯʷͨĻý˵Ե
08.05.28, Yongli Zhangة°˵ףѡˡ˵Ϳ
08.05.28, اعж10пԺǰΪ쳣о

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                     Ԥʵ

                           ӡ

봨ġԤס͡Ԥ⡱

    512봨֮֮࣬еɻ
ΪûзԤôĵһҲûһʱ
ϳڶɡָ𡢳Цֵǻ
ְغӵԤף߻ɵΪȶⲻԤ


    Ϊһ֪ĵԤĪڶ쳣Ϊǡ
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ֺιӵ绰龫ʱڷԿԵʣǰѡ
ֺˡֺ󴫡ֻ˵ɺϣ͵
Ԥ޹ϵ

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һڿֺѧϵһƪģڶԷ
һȲеĴϷ֮󣬵ó۳ơ2008ң
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ԳԤɽġҲ430ַ
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Ȼ޴ӵ֪ʵԣǵλ˶ϵ
յκй봨Ԥ

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ȷԤں̶ܴ1975ԺǵĳɹԤ
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ķǡҡֱжϺĻϡ
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ɽĴ󱯾ҲΪ֮ûбԤ⵽
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Եķȫ̼صĻᡣ˷ƶ²˸ָ
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ȥ˲˵ú׼Ĵƪֺѧġ

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ĳδҲǺֵġݵֹԱ˵ÿ
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ʦҪͳԤĳɹʡ֤ʵܼ򵥡
ЩʦԤⶼǱ쳵ٵؽп̽
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ԤڵĵΥˡл񹲺͹ַԤ
Ӧǲġ

2008.5.25

й걨2008.5.28

(XYS20080528)

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һľʦĴʡУᵹԭĽ

ߣ齣

Уڵеԭڣһרҵ⡣
˼͸ĽôԵЩȥĻһѰҳ˻һ
֣һЩӦΪ˳еε֮Էƶȸô
ԵɥӣѾ˾ѧҳ

ĿǰΪֹδκһų˼͵Ǹе
ˡֻеж貿ֻһЩȨλ
ġרҡǿƺеǻ͸ġ͡

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ԭΣ㶼ӦھΣӦõǸӦ÷˼ΣУĵԭ
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ġĴʡύĲ,Ĵʡ൱УὨ
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塢ѧУĽڿ汾ʹƷȱݡ 

ܶԺʿĽרңҲΪĳЩ˱飬ǿ
ߡҶȴ󵼴ڶԿ⣡Ҳ벵ǣΪרҵ
ʦ˵мڲ⣡ЩרǻģԼԼ
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ƽʱæźȾƳԷĿܼ˥ˣҲǶһ¡
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һԸӣΪ˸Ŀģ˵Υĵġȫרҵˮ׼Ļ
רҵϲһǲںԼ˵
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ڶĺܲƽκ֮գֻܱʵ飬Ȧ
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˹Ҳá˫ӮǣڹڵĿƵֱ׶ˣ
ожٳɹǵḶ́пҲࡣ

(XYS20080528)

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俴Ϸĩ

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ϡϡࣺԪܽУҲ˵˵˵


̵أ۸ëүүˣݺЦ

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ѧԺͨΪ֮гץͣԻѧƹ
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ԣϿҽϱһֵһش
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ʲҶɣѷɣᱻǸжһӭǵġ

ˮUʱ͡ϱͬʣ죬ЪЪɣйֲȱ
ʲôֵȱġ 2008 05 25

(XYS20080528)

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ԤԤ

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2008512ҹ봨8شһ˲֮ʧȥ˽
ͬ˾޴˼ѣе޲Ϊ֮̾ϧ֮
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ȻʵģʵĿѧˮƽ˵ǱҪ
ϵ𻹲ܹȷԤȻ˵ĿǰĿѧˮƽµ
ܱȷԤ˵;ԲԤ⡣ϵĺܶ
һڸ㲻£һЩǰձȻ󣬴ͳ
ѧĽǶҲܶԵķһĸԤ⡣ǹҲַʽ
ɹı1975ǵĵ˺Ȼܽᡢƹɹ
Ԥͬʱ1976Ǻ׼֮ͻȻɽ

ݶʱһЩ󡢾飬еĸԤ͵Ԥ
֮ǲȫͬġҪΪĿǰǶԵԤ׼ȷȷʵ
ǳĵͣǰֵˮƽԤΪԤĻλѱ
ʧƻԣԶԶһĵ

־£һЩϲֵ̽Ԥѧĵ
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ķֿϵؽиֵԤԤ˱Ҳ֪
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ݾԤˮƽǳ͡ȫ˵ָʵ׼ȷѾ͵
κܽܣһҵĵŲϵĻѱ𣩵ˮƽ
ˣȫܲţͬǿԤġ

һЩҪκѧңǿǿԤġ
ԭڣǲԻѱóеκΣڶĲ²У
ֻҪһξͿһҹԣÿδ֮
һЩʿܳԩǿ˵Ԥ⵽εֻ
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˵ЩơӦûһЩʵˣǼûʲô
ָġҲûʲôɱġֻڵԤ׼ȷĵ͸ʺ͸ξ
ˣκһεֵܲ͸ʵԤ⣬Ϊʽĵ
ԤרҵԱĵԤ⣬ҪȡơĿɿöࡣ
֮⣬ʵлкܶΪ˻ȡѾֶεĵΪ
ʲô˵ЩأΪȻܻ߱ü򵥵ĸʷԵ
ԤȴһŻ죬κѾ
ͳҪݡͺͽһЩһ鵽ʲôǩ
ӣֻҪǮ㹻࣬ܽͳݡǰرԻ
ǣһЩڳġơѾѧ˼ְְҵαѧ

αѧ͵͸ʵġϹèӡվͬ
һ㣬ҳαѧ©磬봨֮󣬿
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¡ѵĲĽ¶еġĵרҡݵ
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ʱҪȺһڷ뼶ƭԡ

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أ

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봨֮󣬷ҥƭСоٵĵ۾ݡʵ
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˰ɣϤαѧһƭ˱¡
ѧԤԤ⣬ûʸ˵ֻܸ
ҵľѴңרҵαѧܸܿ񶾡޳ܡ
ƭԡ¶ǣÿһλרҵѧ岻ݴǵΡ

(XYS20080528)

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ǵԤһЦ

ߣѰ

йġ磬Ƽİ£Ѿ
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ϣйѧ磬ȱһЧĿѧǼܣһġ֪
һѧˮƽδسڵѧ빫ǰ

йĵԤоҲֻܹ1966ĴӰ
½ģձϰĵԤой̶10ʱͳԽˣ
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ɣСĺ֮ǣΨһźǣǲѧѧѰ
ֱԣ޹˼ɵذйԤȡõһϵСԳɾ͡
ģ޷ƨĻ

ĻһйԤרңЩȻ겻
ɢزй֣ҪййƭĿо
зֵһԻҪΪҷǡ𲻿Ԥ⣬ôһԶ׼
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Ԥĵ·ôͨ˵ĲиŬرǴӿѧ治
оͨôܽᣬѾܹĳ͵
һ̶ԤȽϵ͵Ӿ197524ź7.3
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εûԤӦʮˣʵϺǵֻ1300ˣ
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ԤԱʿfԤг̩Ժʿȫ֪ѧҸ
ڵķԵԤĽ飬һйԤǰУ
޲оٺԤΪйΪйԤɹ֤
ѧôйԤ˾Ӧøαѧ˾б£ɹһɹ
ʮԤҵգ˷˰Ǯơ

¼һǹ֪ѧҸգRJ Gellerڡʵѧ
־1997131ϷһƪعжԺǵö
7ҳףƳ500ƪʵѧοй漣İɣ

ǵԤ֮һЦΪ֪Ϊ˱
ЦİѱЩ˱Цأ

һλЦձȹǿĵԤоӪͶ
һɹԤĵȻй·ᵽ֣Ӵձ
Ԥоܴһˣձ˶ʮ꣬Ҳˡ
ǵԤɹǡ֤ǲԤģоͶٶ඼ûá

ڶλЦйθԤѧҲ̶ãйѧ
ڹѧȱ㱨ʲô˶Ҫɹɽ
˶˶û֮⣬йš

λЦйĵԤרңײʺˣǻ
ҲãʵҲգԤǲٵġйڵԤϵĹʺ˻ϵײ
ϧ˳˺ǵĶϡйбʽĺ飺
һԤ⵽˴𲢱ܿΣйԤΪйѧ
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ǧˣ˵йԤжĹ

λЦɳйǵţйṩʵ
ȻҲܵToo simple, too naiveָ𣬺ñһ׼
˵ģ٣йȷʵԤ⵽˵𣬾ײʺˣһ
Ԥ⵽˵𲢲ȡ˺ʵжǲٵġΪʲôй˲ȷԤ
أΪĻ̫ˣһһȽϣ󲿷ֶɹǿǺܶġ

λЦй֣޳ȡԤ⺣ǵΰʤ
ȴᣬһˣȻʮꡣ
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Ժǵ𣬰ʵѧΪйǴҪ
Ϊйˮƽֻܿ룬սڳɹԤϼţͱ
ЩɹԤĲΡſظù۵㷴ӳȫĵСǵ
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ˮƽһЦϡ

սۺǵرᵽйɽʱ봨δ
Ҫ봨ˣ䷳ضоɽʣʾй
˼йѧ˶οռ䡣

ҪںǵԤˣɽѪĽѵԤʤһ
ͷˣѵĻô봨ٴηй
Ҫ֤ݣǾԵ̫ûˡԤ⣬йӦ
йзйѧ

ѧһһӡ߳ģɳ̲ϼ񱴿ǲһ

¼һսڵԤعһģEarthquake prediction: a critical 
reviewжԺԤ41ȫģ

4 Claims of Successful Predictions

4.1 1975 Haicheng, China, earthquake

A swarm of earthquakes, the largest M=4.8, occurred 70 km NE of 
Haicheng on 22 December 1974 (Raleigh et al. 1977). An unsuccessful 
prediction was issued for the Yinkow area, about 100 km west of 
Haicheng, at this time (Adams 1976). A prediction of an M=5.5-6.0 
event in the first six months of 1975 for a wide area that included 
Haicheng was issued on 13 January 1975. Based on a swarm (largest event: 
ML=4.7, 4 February, 7:51am) that began on 3 February 1975, a general 
warning was issued at 2pm on 4 February for Yinkow and Haicheng 
Counties to expect an earthquake within two days. The M = 7.3 Haicheng 
event occurred at 7:36pm on 4 February 1975. Seismicity before the 
main shock was discussed by Scholz (1977), Wu et al. (1978), Xu et al. 
(1982) and Jones et al. (1982). Deng et al. (1981) discussed reports 
of anomalies in ground water and animal behavior.

Detailed information on what warnings were issued is apparently 
unavailable in English (e.g. Zhu & Ge 1983; Ma 1990, pp. 4-5). Chu 
(1976, p. 19) said the Provincial Revolutionary Committee made 
telephone calls at 10am on 4 February saying there was a possibility 
of [a] strong earthquake in Haicheng Yingkao districts, but the 
actions taken are not clear. Chu added that a conference for 
earthquake disaster prevention was held at 2.00pm, at which the 
instructions of the provincial revolutionary committee were 
transmitted and duties were assigned, but gave no details.

The claim that the Haicheng earthquake was successfully predicted 
is widely accepted. Lay & Wallace (1995, p. 493) stated:

The 1975 Haicheng earthquake (ML=7.3)was the first major 
earthquake to be predicted. The earthquake was very destructive, but 
almost no one died.

Hammond (1976) reported in Science that very few people were killed, 
and Davies (1975) reported in Nature (see also Anonymous 1975b) that 
there were few fatalities. Savarenskij & Nersesov (1978, p. 83) 
said:

before the severe shock of 4 February 1975 (magnitude over 7), the 
population was evacuated from buildings in a densely populated area. 
Despite considerable damage to a number of inhabited localities, the 
population itself came out unscathed.

However, Lomnitz (1994, p. 25) stated:
It has been widely claimed that Haicheng was evacuated before 
the earthquake, though no such claim can actually be found in Chinese 
sources.

Quan (1988) stated that there were 1328 deaths and 16 980 injuries due 
to the Haicheng earthquake. The large disparity between the reports of 
1975 and 1988 casts doubt on claims for the Haicheng prediction.

The Cultural Revolution was still taking place in 1975. Raleigh et al. 
(1977) described the atmosphere:
earthquake prediction was established and advertised as a national 
policy of the highest priority. Earthquake prediction was not a 
minor experiment, viewed with a skeptical eye in ruling circles. Indeed, 
belief in earthquake prediction was made an element of ideological 
orthodoxy that distinguished the true party liners from right wing 
deviationists. Repeatedly, we heard disbelief in earthquake prediction 
attributed to bourgeois class interests. And criticism of those who 
doubt the feasibility of earthquake prediction was linked to everyone
s duty to criticize the idealist concepts and revisionist lines of 
Confucius, Liu Shaoqi, Lin Piao, and, retrospectively, [Deng 
Xiao-ping].

A Chinese prediction researcher, Chu (1976), said:
On 4 February 1975 at 19:36 Peking time, a strong earthquake of 
M=7.3 shook our nations Lianoning Province, Haicheng-Yingkao district. 
Given the forecast of this violent earthquake, however, the Party, the 
government, the armed forces and the people of the affected province 
immediately took effective prevention measures under the consolidated 
leadership of Lianoning Province Committee of the Chinese Communist 
Party, thus greatly minimizing the damage of this densely populated 
area. This was the very fruit of our great Proletarian Cultural 
Revolution and Anti-Lin Piao Anti-Confucius movement, as well as the 
vivid and successful demonstration of the superiority of the 
socialistic system. It was indeed a great victory of Chairman Maos 
revolutionary line.

Some disasters in China were concealed during the Cultural Revolution. 
As many as 230 000 people died in the collapse of two dams in southern 
China in August 1975, but this tragedy was only revealed 20 years 
later (China: History warns. The Economist, 25 February 1995).

Huebsch (1978) criticized Raleigh et al. (1977):
[Raleigh et al. 1977 display] an uncritical and naive attitude 
toward the alleged accomplishments of Chinese Communist seismology 
under the guidance of Chairman Mao. The reports of successful 
prediction would be more convincing had they been noted before, rather 
than after, the event, and had they been made by visitors fully free 
to travel and able to converse in the language of the country. The 
Americans may have received a Potemkin village tour of a type often 
provided foreign visitors to totalitarian countries.

AGUs Foreign Secretary (Kisslinger 1978) replied:
Mr. Huebsch misjudges the perspicacity and sophistication of the 
American Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. The members of the 
group were carefully selected for their ability to gather and 
critically evaluate all information that might be provided by their 
hosts about the successful prediction of the Haicheng earthquake.
. . .
On the basis of all reports, including the findings of the group 
responsible for the Eos article and my own observations while in China 
in 1974, I personally have no doubts whatsoever that the Chinese did 
successfully predict this earthquake and take actions based on that 
prediction to reduce losses of life and property. In view of the 
totally empirical approach of the Chinese, there may well have been a 
great deal of luck involved in the amazing accuracy of the prediction. 
This does not reduce the significance of the first real success 
achieved anywhere in predicting a destructive earthquake.

At least 240 000 people (the official figure) died in the 1976 Tangshan, 
China, earthquake, which was not predicted. Norman (1977) said more 
than 600 000 were killed. Spall (1977) quoted reports of 600 000 
deaths, and Wallace (1983) quoted reports of 650 000 to 800 000 deaths. 
Retrospective claims of precursors (e.g. Lomnitz & Lomnitz 1978; Chu 
et ml. 1996) were made after the Tangshan earthquake.

A leader in Nature immediately after the Tangshan earthquake 
(Anonymous 1976) commented as follows:
Animal behavior as a predictor has now, of course, become an object 
of popular fascination the world over. For one thing, the jumpiness of 
cats, dogs and snakes can be understood by a much wider public than 
can fluctuations in the velocity of elastic waves; for another, it 
does bring science down to a folksy level at which the good amateur 
observer is just as valued as the professional. There are few branches 
of science where this is true today, and it is excellent news that 
amateur involvement has been given such a good name by the Chinese.

What the Chinese have succeeded in doing, and what this most recent 
calamity will certainly not dissuade them from continuing, is to raise 
the consciousness of people to unusual phenomena, even to the extent 
of encouraging them to file reports. This is a lesson that should not 
be lost in California, the Soviet Union, Japan, the Middle East, or 
other places scourged by earthquakes. There are encouraging signs that 
at least the inhabitants of San Francisco and Los Angeles are prepared 
to learn from the Chinese experience that the experts need all the 
help they can get.

Coe (1971), Bolt (1974), Press (1975c), Press et al. (1975), Shapley 
(1976b), Gu (1981), Anonymous (1982), Russ & Johnson (1985), Chen 
(1986), Tang (1988), Chen, Chen & Wang (1992), Mei (1992), Zhang & 
Zhang (1992), Gao & Gao (1995), Hao (1996) and Wu (1997) also 
discussed prediction research in China. Claims of successful 
predictions (other than Haicheng) were discussed by Press (1975c), 
Norman (1977), Li & Mervis (1996) and Li & Kerr (1997), but the 
details are unclear. 

(XYS20080528)

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(XYS20080528)

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ƳԤĻ

ߣ΢
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BBCй̸ѡBBCⷽˮƽ̫Ҳ˽йˣ
ǱһЩˡǵ÷Ϲ̸֮ࣨȻ
ҲɶҫһɺϹƷζɼһߡ

ʱЩýĻզ췹ģ˵汨Ჴ
ƬΪйƬһƪ˿֮·ͼһ˺
һգŮ˵ɽˮ˵ƴ˿·ϵˣɽˮ
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רңųˮշĴ

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7420000/newsid_7423500/7423578.stm

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ݱſֶҽƶУһҽ
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͵ʡҽԺƵ˲Աų
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ة°˵ףѡˡ˵Ϳ

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ӱ˵Ĳתء˿üӻ˵ѧةĴ
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ا봨𿴻оĹϵ
عж10пԺǰΪ쳣о

ѧʱ2008-5-27

ܹԤ

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о˴ĵ顢죬ͨʵбȽϹ۲졣ڼҸǰ
Ӧ΢񶯣ǰϰ쳣ص㣬Ϊԡǰʱ䡢ֲ
쳣Ӧǿоȷ棬õĽ

1975꺣ǵԤɹϵļערָ
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ѧ¼֮Ĺϵϵϵǧ˵ţ
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һչ 1978ȫѧ齨ˡĸоΪоң
ӲͬǶȿչ˵ǰ쳣ĻоԵо
Ҹ񶯸ĽṹоҸ񶯸оŲЧӦ
оԲЧӦоȷ棬صλչ˵ػЧӦ
оΪЭطſչΪ۲⣬
ԳԶ۲ϵͳԶ¼ϵͳ

19661996ڼ䣬ĵԤҪ˶ϵ
ĺо΢оǰߵĿǽʾǰ쳣¼Ҫ
ʱ䡢𼶣ͳƹϵֵܳĵ͵ѧ
ǰ֮ʱչϵڵڵԤʵֵĵ񣬶ǵ
ԶϮҪ塣ϵ΢оо
ԵǰصЧӦĻϣʾĸ֪ͼģʽ
ɫ͵ǰ׼ϵͳνѧоڵ
ԤһδͻƵ⣬30оͻӦĺ
΢оҲ˸ͷʵѵá

רϵҺ

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ܺõɡӢӡΪ̵ǣϲáǡָʾ
áǡɼϽоĿҲԼ񡣴ֿ
ʱоʵУǾ֮룬
֮ڽͷչԵѧƵͬʱɹλ

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罯ĸ˵ģѧҸףA.H.Freyָ
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һоʹǸ̵ʶ𣬷չЧļֶΡ

֮ϵĺоԶԤǵľԶ
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ǰصЧӦ̽ĸ֪ͼģʽɫ
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ʹΪĻоҲȡ1973ŵѧҽѧ
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