                          ˿µϣ20090518գ

09.05.17ûи
09.05.18, ٴȾ ҽҩлᣨۣ
09.05.18, oztigerH1N1רԱҽʦȪ˵ѡ
09.05.18, ˼¡ҽӵǵıɺ޳ܡ
09.05.18, Źҫһڲҵҩ
09.05.18, 硶μH1N1ҽҩʱ
09.05.18, ¹ǡշпҽ൱һʱڱؽںͺơ
09.05.18, AH1N1л߾ȻҽС
09.05.18, ··֣׿ˮС
09.05.18, ΡýûаѼп־廯ΪԺͨвࡷ
09.05.18, СϺѧУƺԾ֤֮
09.05.18, ʦѧԺԺȷġѧۡĳϮΪ
09.05.18, ϡͨѧҽѧԺƾʦ걨١
09.05.18, ѧ07BJY124)ĿɹȫĳϮ
09.05.18, Ƿ¼ĸ⡷
09.05.18, IT񹤡׷ִѧĸˣ˭Ʒ
09.05.18, Michael Shermerĳ©
09.05.18, Ƽ¡˵ļʵޡ

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ӰH1N1ٴרҽרȪں
ҽԤƲԴȾЧΪҶˣ2003˹
ڼ䣬ΪȥҽԺͷȾ˹֮
ģʱôҩԤģôҩ
ģͥı粻ģڼҽҩܹЧ
ԤƲԴȾĻƭҽˣĪй
ı磿ٴȾ ҽҩлᡱǲҽҩи˵Ļ᣿

H1NIлڵ̳ҽԺʱҩЧ
ôƣŰս̳ҽԺԺë˵ס̳ҽԺļ
15һȱȽϸߣ10ңΪ38.5棬ڷҩδ
Чʱ´ﵽ39.4棬ôƣ3¿ʼ½
ʱѴﵽ36.5棬峿»ָ36.4棬֮һֱˮƽ
20090518աʱǲΪרҵĺҩ
Ч㵢ƣԺлǲǾͱҩˣ

ѷ5000лߣֻ5׻Բֲ֢
֮ͣͨиߣѵ͵͵ҩɣ
ִֻҽѧҲͦȥΪй߾ͷǡҽϡ
ɣλĲԭǿû߽ܲҪҩǷǳ˵ġ

ٴȾ ҽҩл

   
2009/05/18

Ԥҩ ҽȴޱ仯 רұ Դ˹ٷ
ʾ

5գ칫ҽҩְ칫ӡˡH1N1
ҽҩԤ2009棩¼ơ5Ԥҩ

߾ʹ˶ԱеĲҽԺ̽ãҽûܵĹ
ע

ͬʱʱڣҽġּͦ˵ۣ֧
߹Ȼ裬һЩҽ˽ɻҽĲ
ҽεô



ҽ

ԤH1N1еҩһϾҵۡ
߷֣ЩԷֳɡ

֧߳ƣҽġʤҽƵķҷ׷
ҽĸֺô縱õ͵ȡ

ҲһЩɣΪҽĲرǼH1N1
ֵĲҽҽȫܡʱйûһҽ
йңī磬˵ʲôҩķܹƼH1N1УǺܻ
һ顣Դڿ˵

Ŀǰڳ

̽

δʹҽ

ҽҽԺֱҽѧԺҽҽԺȼҽ
ΪɫҽԺ˽⣬ЩҽԺ仯󣬹ҳ̨ġ
Ҳûʹ

ҽԺԺҽʦʾĿǰҽԺûר֯￪䷽Ҳ
ûϰõҽԺץҩ֡ʾĿǰΪֹûи
ҽԺҩԵı仯

⣬߻߷˳ҽԺЭҽԺͬҽԺȼۺҽԺҲ
ûгֿҽ

ҽԺвҩֵҽʾԼᵽļH1N1ҩԤ
䷽̫вҩĻûԵı仯

ҽ

ЭҽԺĹԱ߼ߣҽԺһԼ7000˴ε
ҽƽ500-600˴Ρ

ҽԺ5¥ҽƣ߿6ңÿſֻһڵȺ

ҽԺṩǣÿ5000-8000˴εУҽռ
200-300˴Ρ

ҽԺֻĪ߹۲죬ҽҽԺ塣

磬ڳҽԺҩ۲20ӣԺҩв
15ȡҩȡҩ߶ΪŶӡ3ҩÿǰ6-8
Ŷӣһֱûֹͣ

ͬҽԺ߿ҩȡҩ4ڣÿǰ20
ӡҽƺﴦֻ4ڵȴ

ҽı

ҽרҵʿô˵أ߷ֱɷ֪ѧѧ߷
ӣԼҽϼרҵίԱḱίԱйҽѧԺ㰲ҽ
Ժ

ɣӦҽҩ

ӽܱɷʱʾҽķչҪߡҽҩĵ·Ĺ
ײŻõϿɺͱ档

Ӹ߼ߣһƷҩǷЧǱ뾭ϸƵٴ
ȷġ

ʷϣҽβκһִȾǽܿơഫ
ȾֽԤÿءҩִҩƣ
ִҽѧֶΣҽ޹ϵ

ҽѧӦǿѧʹȫǿѧҲӦýڿѧĻ֮ϣ
ÿѧоͨеѧ׼ɼԡ֤
αԡɲԵȵȣжҽϵǿѧġ

ǲǾҪҽҩȫ̷񶨡ǧҽʵУҽ
ܻĳЩȫЧҩƷֵȥھ

ֻߡҽҩĵ·ҽеĳЩɷֲŻִҽѧ֮У
ִҽѧһ֣ҽĹײŻõϿɺͱ档

ͦɣӹ׻ˮ

θ߼ߣһֱڶҽ˽ⶼ˶
ҽȫ̷񶨣ͼҽ񻯡

ˮǡҽӹ׻ʱܿ
ҽҽճҽ1000ȵ鼮ｫҽ˵
ƽ񻯣ƺֻҪһ飬ҲܳΪҽ˵

ʵҽ˵һϾһѧơ

ǧǰҽԴƵʱǵвôķչϰ
УҽԲȾԼ˸ƾ顣

ͼH1N1еĲ˵һߣ԰վƣ
ȫû⡣

ٷ˵

ԼH1N1 ҽл

壬ҽҩҽҩμH1N1רίԱԱ
ҽҩѧֱҽԺȪʹ˱ߵĵ绰ɷá

FWڵسּH1N1кΪʲôҪƳҽԤǷ
ƹҽ

ΪĿǰûӦ磬ҪȡԤʩҽĽǶ
һ㡣

ܽ˵ƹҽΪйҽ֮⣬ҽôһ

ҽһָҽڹȥԤлЩ취ȻЧ
Ȳ磬ʹһЩٵò˵֢״ᡣԻֵ
ƹʹõġ

FWǷΪҽԤƼH1N1лһõģ

ҽкҪãһá˵ΪԼ
ȾУҽǶ˵ȥܶƵĲٴҲȡ
˺ܺõЧ

ҽǶȿH1N1Уķɺٴɻг
ʶ

Ȼҽ̫עʲôĸǲֺӦ
״̬Ӧûͬġ

FWοҽķչǰ

ȾͻȻжҽǸչᡣΪȾͻȻ
ԭ£ҽֶκпЩǷȱҽǡǡ̫
ǲβģƵֶλḻһЩ

ҽδķչ봫ȾϢϢصġҽܶҪ̱
ʽķչ纺پġ˺ۡ峯ʢжչҽѧǡǡ
ΪȾʢж˳Ʒչġ 

 (XYS20090518)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

H1N1רԱҽʦȪ˵

ߣoztiger

ԴӼH1N120094±йڶ
ʮֹעǰSARSŰйĲʹѵ˵εл᲻ٶ
ȡڶҽƭȴϰĻ̵̻Ļᣬ󴵷˵
ԼܷH1N1С200957գڽƵСȵĲɷ
ʱΪҽҩ֡H1N1רԱ֮һȪҽ
ܹH1N1в˽ͣӣ
http://news.sohu.com/20090508/n263837042.shtmlҾһһҴ
Ļԡ

һҽʶH1N1Сʵǣҽ޷H1N1
кͨС

ڽܲɷʱȪ˵ʵҽڴȾƣ̫ע
ʲôΪҽβĹ۵ǲַԺ󣬿ٴ
ʲô...Ǻҽ ̫ע࡯Ǹ֪
ʲôǲʲôϸǸ֪Ⱦ΢ģûа취Ż
ȥٴ֢״ȥﲡ

ҽҲܸݲͬٴ֢״жϳɲͬ

Ȫ䵱ԿSARSʱ˵"ǽӴ˲Ժǿ˵
Ӵ˵Сʱ֮ڣǾʹٴжǵʱνķǵ..."
˵ѣڵĶֱҽԺηǵ䲡ĳ2003316磬
ȪԷףֱһԺ˵Ĳ񻯣ҽԺ
˼̸֪ĳۺ󣬲ŻĳǷǵ䲡ˡϵǰ
֪㶫˷ǵǿȾôţ֢״о
֪ĳĲⲡģαҪ֪˼ûȥ۲жϣ
ΪʲôҪҽʵҼ鵽ǵ䲡֮Ÿȷǵ䣬֮ǰȻ
ĳĲԷΣҪܡ֢ơôɲ˴Ⱦ
ŵ˼ʮԺҽԱ

ԶҽԤH1N1С

ڱʵҽԤH1N1еķʱȪʼ˵ĶҪ·
˯ʳעӪȵȷϻЩС֪ҽ
ҽʲôϵ˵ԤЧҲѾεĻԡ

ȥȻ˵ԿSARSʱҽԤЧ˵

 ǵʱνķǵ䣬ڲȡ򵥵ķʩͬʱǾͿʼ
ҽҩķȻ˵ҽԺ׶ΣҽԱܵһЩش
мҲһЩϲģرǺһЩҽԱڳԤҩͬ
ʱ˼򵥵һЩķͬʱڣǵڶٽӴ
ҽԱûзģǷĶͷӴȺ

޳֮ͽҽԺĸԺºвѧ˵ڸ
ԺSARS˽Ⱦ޷˵Ȫ˵ĵڶ죬318
51գֱҽԺȺ55˱ȾSARS5
ӣΪҽԺ̽ȾģȪôԤģҽԲ
ԴȾԤģȵ˭ȥˣֲԵĴȾ
֮ǰ˱ӴʲôԤҩã

ҽƼH1N1С

Ȫڲɷ˵ҽĹЧģ... Ժ
ᷢһϵеķӦ˵֢Ӧ˵ҽ
ڲЧһЩҽ֢ڣ߹
ܳ쳣кܴá ˵SARSǲ֣
ϵͳӦ֢ǵSARSĳɼΣ˵Ӿ
ҽЧģǶȵʱ仹Ƕı
ʾһáνĽѵҽĽ̫ˣΪһԴȾ
ĿǰڴȾԺпƣͨҽԺƣҽԺѽ룬
ҽȻ˵һƷ޷ʵʩ...

˲ô޳ܣҽԺSARSսΪʲôҪ˵
ҽĽ̫ˡΪʲôҪ˵һƷ޷ʵʩ
һ¿Ʋ˸ȾԼҽԺ˰ǱȾҽȫ
תȥӰҽԺƣЧţƤԵԼȥ
Ӻͬ

Ȫɶȥ˴ڿڵĹH1N1вˣͷ
ҽҩЧǳԣκõôҽƲôҲ
ң߼˵ǲ˼ˮκõвУ

Ȫڽ̸ܷʱ̸ʲôϵͳҪҽH1N1У
ִҽѧȻ˵...ҽѡõƷֱɱҩ
ƣ...ʵϴƸֱɱģǿֹ
ȾϸϸáȪ֪ηϲʴʵƷУ
˵˽Ԥеãѵ߹ٺ
H1N1רԱֻɫ

(XYS20090518)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ҽӵǵıɺ޳

ߣ˼

ǵǰĳǰŷкܶѧ
ΪͲӦЬĶѧǾӦôСѧϰЬգΪ
ǶȥѧѧϰͿѧĻô˭Ьأ

ǰиϺѧ˵ũѧУӦö࿪ЩйصĿΣӦ
ʵʵĿʲôΣũõЩ˵Ҳû
ǷƳҽҩĻҲֽ˵¡

һЩϲֶҽĸ߹Ϊũ̫ֻ
ҽñ˵ҩβôһҪռ÷չĳɹΪ
ռִҽĻͻĿ֧ռִҽҪ
ܶǮάҵҲҪܶǮԼѡһ
ҪֻԼִҽƵȨȨǸеԼ˸
ֹһִҽһƶũ񶼿ܣǵ
ԽоûˣЩ˵ּǳٲΪȨΪʲô

ǵ޳ΪԵĸһЩǹ
Ļǵʵ޷⣬ǵӱżЩƳ
ҽ޷Ǿ뿴ҽҩĲҿȻʿˮ˵
ϧѡȻʱͼҽԺִҽѧĺô
ʱȴҽҩĶ˼ȥҽԻ
ʵ뿴Ӿ֮ʵҾķ͵ı̬

йоŻԼ֮ϣԼ֮ס˵
ĻľˣǱ̬ĿǺ͹ȴšΪԼռ
ҽƵĺôѱѵԨЩǸ߾ٵľȻά
⡣͸ˣ

2009.5.18

(XYS20090518)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

һڲҵҩ

ߣŹҫ

򿪡˿˸תԴԡ514շ
һţ˵ĴġҹȷļH1N1лʹҽҩ
ƣЧǳԡǣ˵ȴǱҽҩѧֱҽԺ
ȪҲ֪Ȫǲߵҽʦǣ
ȪҽϢɡʹҸȤģϢ
ԴǱеһ仰ǰɶдȾҽԺܣԺԻ
ʹôƽƣͬʱҲʹҩơ

ڣй֪ҽҵȥѧҲ֪
ҽһ㣬ҽʦͽܣҪͽôһ仰һڲ
ҵҩˣжһ³ҩӰЧ
߱κˣֲ廼ߵǳ˭ҩõġΪڶ⣬ҽ
ΪԼġһ㶼ܾͬʱҽơǻԼ
ȷϣǰƶѾЧҽſϽµĴá߲Ȱ
棬ӲǽҽͬʱȺΪԼβҽΪ
ͨǰҽββͷһҽβββ
ЩβͷûκõҽͨΪԼ绤ùβͷ
˵ββͷβûκãҽԼı绤
˵ε˲β֮ǣܻʲôú
ģҲãþģҲҪԣ۳ҽ¹ʣ
ҽ粻֮˵ı绤ʣνīᣬ
öսڼ䰢īһ仰Ҳڵҽ֪
ҽ״ǡѼڹӶѾˣ컹Ӳԭ

ϢϢԴ⣬ҪΥ
ҽһڲҵҩԭ򡣾ݱ߽˴ơ
֪ڼH1N1лߵЧ֯Ѿ
ȫ繫˵ģڹϣйõ˳ϡҽб£
աһڲҵҩԭĴλH1N1лߴһʼ
ֻҩҩʲô

ҽû

(XYS20090518)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

μH1N1ҽҩʱ

ߣ

517ҶϹνСH1N1ȫ
(ȫ)µԣҽ˵ҩзЧã
Ϊһ֤Ч飺1вһɲʹӺͲѧϷ
һɸҽϸ淶ʹáСϡ2õ۹
Чҩƣֻҩ3пڰ֧ϴҩ
ÿͳͳҪҩ4WHOϵвⱵī
޹ɳɴҽŴҩйرҽƶӣõ
Դأһ֮ھͱɾˡɴ˿ֶ
ҽҩڷμH1N1ʵϲôšҽҩô
ţɶ͡˿ҽǡ顱òᰡ

Ľ鲢Ǻ޸ݵġ˵ϣH1N1Ͳҽ
ġҲѧҽĩ98ǰé֪ҽʲô
дȾҽŶΪ²ڡ²
ɶϵǸǲű߼ʡҽֻܸҽѧغѡ
뿪˲ѧѧϼҽֻСܸH1N1
Ʋ

йɫķǸһҽҩãû˵ƵЧΣ
Ƕ˵ҩЧرãڿһʡȻҩô飬ﻹ鷳
ǮҩʡʡɣֱӳҩǸá

ҽԴΡδôŵǰĴʱúչʾһ
ей翹еʷΡ뾳ÿ͵Ҫ
ҽ취ȷ׼±ӦЩ⣬ղҪҽ
˵㡣йشﲩҩеǣ뾳߾ȫ䱸ҽ
пڰҩ˺Ⱥȣвβ޲ǿҽѧ顢
Ӵ߸۲ЩҽСҲͳͳˣǻַˣΨ˲
ֿ϶ԡԶ,ֺ!

˰ѣСѱеҽ
ҩѱʵ֤μN1H1СЧǴʱ
صģûҽҩǻԼȫԮ֣
ԺĶ鰡⽻ͬWHOϵȷ
еμN1H1ţҽҩǲſ
죩ʮҲҽҩҵҽҩ
ˡץѵã

(XYS20090518)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

շпҽ൱һʱڱؽںͺ

ߣ¹

21͵Ľ죬ִҽѧѾչӺͻˮƽһµб
Ѹٿҵԭ壬˽˲ĻȫУ׼ȷԼ
Ѹ١ǰгʱ1918
еһȫеı1918ҽѧˮƽ
޷ͬնġ˵ʱлȥ
ˣ֪ԭʲôҲû硣ִҽ
ѧִĸ߿ƼֶʹӦвٷ³ɰǧ
¼ˡ

ȻйͬҽоͿΪȫҩ
ˣ˵ȷļҲڷҩƣɶڷôƵͬʱ
гҩע̵עҺ
http://medicine.people.com.cn/GB/9322102.htmlɽȻҲӲ
ҩ
http://www.chinanews.com.cn/jk/jk-ysbb/news/2009/05-15/1693385.shtml
֪ԼһϼH1N1ʱĴרҿ
ҩӦôӦҲԣȻԼ˶ԣǲҲ
Ȼ۹ʱһûдʲôµģҽҩֽȡһشʤֻ
֪ҩζȹ˴ѹأ

ʱл⣬ת𴦡ҽڹеϿɳ̶ȻǺܸߵģ
൱һʱڱؽںͺơȻƭдһѡ
߼λˣˡǲһʵܶƭ
ƭģ׼ϣ彡Щ겡ִҽ
ѧԳƭӳ룡

һλڱġڡԳơڡ֪
ԷĻǱ˵ģԻáĻȻҽƻ
˼ԳƲβֻȥǶĲҪҺŵġ
λ˶Ųɣҷ˴ǲܸ˵׵ģ
ǷȰ˵ʵȥ֤

ԳǶԳơʦڡ
¡ȫضСʦ֧ѯֻȥԼ沿
ƬͿӰѯϣȺܶҽˣÿѯ߻
һݹͬ飨http://www.dadaotang.com/Advisory.aspx?azid=25
ǵνͬ

źǣúͬԵĿѯ֮ìʱĵƣȻ
ÿѯ߶ǻߣȴԼҽ˽һк
أڶ໼߶ݺͬķӦԸԸģԼʦΪ
Ѹ漰ҽƵļܣǲҽȻòҽʦʸ֤òŸ
ŵļලøҩĽҳΪ˱װ£
õǡʳ׼99017š˾ӹҵǡشƷ
˾һҵصӣΪѼܡҷ
ܴ󾢻Ѳʳ׼ֵα

©ٳãȴƼǰаôõı
˿תwww.xys.org/xys/ebooks/others/science/dajia7/zhongyi61.txt
źǲ֮Ҳ˽¶õҩƷка͸
ɷ֣İ(http://www.douban.com/group/topic/5034517)˵
δ֤

շпΪƭ߼İõƭϵ߼ĸԸϵ
֪ƭӿƭʱұΣ

(XYS20090518)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

AH1N1л߾ȻҽС


á֪㿴ûУ

ҽ޳ܵسдĻơʵ֤ǵİ취ûκô

ܲ˿عһ£

http://news.sohu.com/20090518/n264013558.shtml

ٿ ߳Ʋ

20090518վʱ 

    Ѷ  Ҷޣ磬ٿý巢ᣬ
ǰȷһH1NIлߵл㱨ͨû߽
ƵߡĿǰСѻָ

̳ҽԺ
»ָ

̳ҽԺԺëܣ̳ҽԺһֱڶĸѹ
ɸ顣

    ڼ䣬ԺҽԺרͲлȡҽϷʽ
ơԺ˼ð˫ڷҺڲ˱ȷΪ
H1N1ȷﲡ󣬼˴ƽпơ

ë˵ס̳ҽԺļ15һȱȽϸߣ10
ңΪ38.5棬ڷҩδЧʱ´ﵽ39.4棬
ôƣ3¿ʼ½ʱѴﵽ36.5棬峿»
36.4棬֮һֱˮƽ

ëʾ˽ڸѹƺ͹۲졣ҽԺҽ
ʿרչλߡ

ʿ 㻼

죬ߵܻʿźƣСһڲڻįԼ
ڲ죬ΪСṩȪˮƷȻĲкת
ҽԱ벡轫ȫ׸װ롣

 δ߷ؼ

ԱȷﲡǷ߷ؼмε
ʾû߷ؼ԰֮ǰзء

ƣҲǶԱؼH1N1йһκ
ü飬òڱзжԿɲе黷зֵģ˴
֤еķعλ

(XYS20090518)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

·֣׿ˮ

ߣ·

ҽзǳЧһҽѧҳҹ
Ĺ۲졢ͱۣоͻԽչµķǣ׿ˮ
á

ʵ£ѲΪ飬ʵôƣ׿
ˮȣͬʱôƺͰ׿ˮơ֣ʵ鲡ƽ7-10
鲡ȫ

ۣйУõĳɷǰ׿ˮṹ򵥣
ʽΪH-O-Hӵġ򡱡ѧԭ

±ŵίԱẦ´˷ֵйԸϴ
³ɹȪȡúҽר
Ȫ֮ίԱᡱоش׵250λҽרҰ䷢Ȫ
ܶΪŵ2.5޴ʿй
ʵйҽĳŵ

(XYS20090518)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ýûаѼп־廯ΪԺͨв

ߣ

ҵҽѧһڵѧȰ棺

ʹθȾ˼ҲҪ־塣һҪס˼ϳ
壩ʵĻþʱʱų֢֡״Ѿװ
㣬ʹĽӦ֮ߣ˸ֵöμк
ºͿ־塣μпǾкSARS࣬ǻ
ʲôµģμпûô׶񡱣㿪ʼеԼ
ʡпܵУʵ㲢ûбȾ־屾
ܱμиȾԶҪ彡
κβַõİ취

ظй걨2009515յ£Ŀǣ
Űýװ͡Ű ýͻȻʧ
пԿй˵ġСǼС֮ĶȾ֮Լ
йҽѧ磨ģȾѧ֪ʶƶйΪýⲻ
Ա⡰ĵǣҵ
ڵǣٹҵЩ
صľΣĸЧӦ йΪĺ
أʹķߴѶȺ͸ΪҽϵͳΪĹң
ȻԱصȵֺ߱һһý䴦
ø಻֪ĹӸȾΣգҲòɢȫ
򡣡

ʵǣ

1	дģȾеѧ֪ʶʹڽһ
һµġҲ˵˲Ϊҽѧ˵֣Ǻ
׽ܡйûС

2	һֱͳ˱иȾ516ձȷԼ
4700ˣҽѧΪȾĿѾ8000ˣӴ
ûзĿ10ˡ

3	˹۲H1N1еԲߣͨ
صĶȥѾ6ˣ˵һī缮22´ĺ
ӣԲĲˣûһΪH1N1ж
仰˵ͨУ6ˣΪ֢Ҳˡҽ
ߴңԼð˾ʹڼҪˣе˾ȥҽ
ĿǰֻҪѧиðУ͹رա

4	ҽΪҩμУΪ㹻ҩﴢ


ңҽѧҵϸֵģҵβĴ
ģȾǵĸӰ죬ǵ빻ϣǹƹ涨ġ
ȫеҵҽѧϵ100% Ķ֮û
¼쵼ϵû˵쵼ҽѧйҽϵ͹Ҽ
֮Ĺϵ˼Ц

ԣй˱ȾҪɫΪҵý
ҲҪɫйΪʲô֪йý־ýû
־壬˵й˱˸Ӱϧյӹ磬˵
й˵ڶߣֻüǿһߣض£룩˲
ǲ롰ض¡ǴһʼΪضµİ취Ч²סҲΪ
Ч̫֮ˣΪڶǿԲ
¡˵ͬйҲûжĴѾ4000
ٴ飬йֻмˣԣİ취ܿǶԵġ
й˸еܿ־˾һҲҪеܿ־壬Ϊʲôѽ

Ҹ˶йΡض£롱취ֿ϶̬ȣǣÿ
¼󣬹˵йѧ˵˵ȥйĻˮƽԶ
Զҡ˵÷ҺϴֿԷֹܶഫȾУ
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˿ͬһīˣ
ˣ⾿ 

й걨´ʱȲҪд޴£Ȱѵ绰ֱ
Ӵǻ̸ԭ򣬵绰ǣ202-619-0257һ
ʱҵʣһߵıܡֲй˶޴ԭ
걨޴

¼
༭  Դ ߣй걨 ڣ2009-05-15 

꣬ýSARS߶ȹעһɵH1N1
зԼʱȴֺǷңԶȥĶ
ȣ˾ý御˽˼ӵУȴʼĹ汣ָ
һ£ϧʹ˫ر׼ΪH1N1УƱؼ
ĵǣҵλڵǣ
ٹҵЩصľΣĸЧӦ 
 

ǣýĲΪƱؼؼH1N1еУӲ
ˢºӵٶҲԿͬʱȫ򾭼еĵλ
ԱУӣĿԲӣ
ҲķߴѶȺ͸ΪҽϵͳΪĹңȻ
Աصȵֺ߱һһý䴦
ø಻֪ĹӸȾΣգҲòɢȫ򡣶
ЩúҽĹҶԣһпӦԸΪѡ
ܼH1N1еʲߣ˿ڶ޹˵ȴ
߶Ⱦ  

(XYS20090518)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ϺѧУƺԾ֤֮

ߣ

κκƷڷǰҪģ˾ӦƷ
ӦΡ
 ԣ˵ѧ۵㡢˼ͳɹðΪԼʹͬ
лõѧϢ
 ϮѷδƷעΪԼо
ɹʹá
 سϮԼġɹгϮռ20%ϣ
20%
ԡѧѧ淶Υ洦취

ڡƺġġӪеļֵ٣³ơ
ġ̳2007?2 P102104شΪǵڶ
ߣҲѧΪ

롶ġͬɹֵƷڡġ֮ǰ

︽ڣȫû10ڡ
http://www.zjol.com.cn/gb/node2/node802/node807/node380675/node38073
2/userobject15ai5184471.html   ǮӰ棬?ţ20061
17,ڶ

1ġ102ҳ1ε14У¼ڣȫû
10ڡ120֡

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33ڣ2001 6 £P1625ߣ죩 

1ġ102ҳҲ3ε14103ҳ115УϮ
ۣ۹˿ͼֵ˿ͼֵơ16ҳ217ҳ1У240֡

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2006.11P17-19,ߣռˮ ֲ

1ġ103ҳҲ5ε58104ҳ1УϮܣ
ִͻϸΪҵӪϡ18ҳ5Σ812УԼ85ַ

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20012ڣP51-55,ߣ׳磩

1ġ102ҳҲ2ε24УϮݣĹ˿ͼֵ
ʵʾ51ҳ1Σ68֡

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http://www.globrand.com/2006/49030.shtml 2006-5-16  globrandȫƷ
 > Ӫ > Ӫ >Ӫۻ ztȫƷ ɵ111

1ġ103ҳ3ε16УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ12ҳ140֡
2ġ103ҳ4ε17УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ12ҳ170֡
3ġ103ҳ5ε12УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ12ҳ40֡
4ġ103ҳ5ε25УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ12ҳ72֡
5ġ103ҳ6ε14УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ12ҳ95֡
6ġ103ҳҲ2ε13УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ13ҳ65֡
7ġ103ҳҲ2ε38УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ13ҳ157֡
8ġ103ҳҲ3ε14УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ13ҳ99֡
9ġ103ҳҲ4ε16УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ14ҳ145֡
10ġ103ҳҲ4ε611УϮޣӪۻ
ztglobrandȫƷ14ҳ155֡
11ġ103ҳҲ5ε12УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ14ҳ40֡
12ġ103ҳҲ5ε25УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ16ҳ80ַ
13ġ104ҳ1ε14УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ14ҳ106֡
14ġ104ҳ2ε16УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ15ҳ147֡

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ʵ(˫¿)2001 12£22114ڣP168170

1ġ104ҳ1ε4-19УϮߣǳӪ
Ĺ˿öɼֵ170ҳ23Σ335ַ

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ֲţΪУʹ֮ΪԼġʵ
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Ӫеļֵ
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һ
2005 ףȫûﵽ10.8ˣ1995굽2000ڼ䣬
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ġ102ҳ1ε14У¼ڣȫû10
ڡ120֣
ο1
ȥףȫûﵽ10.8ڣ20041.5ˡ
1995굽2000ڼ䣬ȫû45004.2ڣȽӽ
105ȫûҲһϡeTForecasts
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ȫû10ڡ

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31գйûͻ1ڻﵽ1.11 ˣڶ1
־ҹûģһ̨ףӳҹռӦȡ
ó뷢ҵĻռȣž޴ռ䡣޴
ʹӿҵӦóΪܡԴ1995껥
ӦҵĿȫÿǰķչµļ£
ӪֺͷչΪгӪչıȻӪָ˻֯Ի
Ϊȡϡַʽ˫Ի֮һֵ
̡

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ֵĸں
2080³˾Ӫ˽Թ˿
˵ʲôмֵġ2090˿ͼֵѳΪӪѧߺ
ҵ˹ͬעĽ򣬱ΪƵԴ(Woodruffl997)
ġ102ҳҲ2ε24УϮݣĹ˿ͼֵо
ʵʾ51ҳ1й֣68֣ڵĹ˿ʱ
ҵӵеΩһǴͽĹ˿ͼֵ뽻˿ͼֵ
ΪҵʤĹؼ
ο2
ɹҵҪȡ˿⣬90 ˿ͼֵ(Customer 
Value CV )ѳΪӪѧߺҵ˹ͬעĽ Ϊ
ƵԴ(W oodruffl997) ݣĹ˿ͼֵоʵ
ʾ51ҳ1й֣

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ӪʦڡӪһ˹˿öɼֵΪ
˿öɼֵָܹ˿ͼֵܹ˿ͳɱ֮ܹ˿ͼֵǹ˿
ĳһضƷлõһܹ˿ͳɱúʹøò
ƷʱĹ˿͵ԤƷáУܹ˿ͼֵ˲Ʒֵ
ֵԱֵֵĸ棻ܹ˿ͳɱ˻Ҽֵʱɱ
ɱɱĸ档Ϊ˿öɼֵþʾҲ
ʾȽϹӦƷʱͨΪֵ/ ۸
ȡġ102ҳҲ3ε14103ҳ115УϮ
ۣ۹˿ͼֵ˿ͼֵơ16ҳ217ҳ1У240֣
Ϳù˿öɼֵʾ˿ͼֵ
ο3
ڡӪһ˼ͬļֵΪ, ˿
öɼֵָܹ˿ͼֵܹ˿ͳɱ֮ܹ˿ͼֵǹ˿ĳһ
Ʒлõһ档ܹ˿ͳɱúʹøòƷ
ʱĹ˿͵ԤƷá,ܹ˿ͼֵ˲Ʒֵֵ
Աֵֵĸ;ܹ˿ͳɱ˻Ҽֵʱɱ
ɱɱĸ档Ϊ,˿öɼֵþʾ,Ҳ
ʾȽϹӦƷʱ,ͨΪֵ/ ۸ȡ
ۣ۹˿ͼֵ˿ͼֵơ16ҳ217ҳ1У

Ӫеļֵ
Ӫн顪ӪбڴͳӪͨʵ
нӪӪеĹ˿öɼֵص㡣˿öȼֵ
ʵϾöɸ˿͵ļֵɹ˿õֵܼ˿ܳ
֮ĲģǺ˿һǳҪָꡣ

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ڹ˿ڹƷʱϣйسɱҡʱ䡢
޶ȣͬʱϣлļֵԱԼҪõ
ȵ㣬ˣ˿ѡƷʱӼֵɱбȽϷ
ѡֵߡɱͣ˿öɼֵĲƷΪѡ
Ķ󡣣ġ103ҳ3ε16УϮޣӪۻ
ztglobrandȫƷ1213ҳ140֣
ο4
ڹ˿ڹƷʱϣйسɱҡʱ䡢
޶ȣͬʱϣлøʵ棬ʹԼҪõ
޶ȵ㣬ˣ˿ѡƷʱӼֵɱбȽ
ѡֵߡɱͣ˿öɼֵĲƷΪ
ѡĶ󡣪ޣӪۻztglobrandȫƷ12
13ҳ

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ҵΪھսʤ֣Ǳڹ˿ͣͱ˿ṩȾ
֡˿öɼֵĲƷ߹˿̶ȣ
ҵĲƷΪˣҵɴĽԼĹ:һͨĽ
ƷԱ߲ƷֵܼͨƷϵͳ
ٹ˿͹Ʒʱ䡢ĺķѣӶͻǻҳɱ
ġ103ҳ4ε17УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ13ҳ170֣
ο5
ҵΪھսʤ֣Ǳڹ˿ͣͱ˿ṩȾ
־ иࡰ˿öɼֵĲƷʹԼĲƷΪ
ע⣬ҵĲƷΪˣҵɴĽԼĹһ
ͨĽƷԱ߲Ʒֵܼͨ
۳ɱٹ˿͹Ʒʱ䡢ĺķѣӶͻǻ
ɱޣӪۻztglobrandȫƷ13ҳ 

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1.˿͹ֵܼ˿ͻø󡰹˿öɼֵ;֮һ
˿͹ֵܼġ103ҳ5ε12УϮޣӪ
ۻztglobrandȫƷ13ҳ40֣
˿ֵܼǲƷֵֵԱֵֵصĺ
ʾTCV=f(PdSPSI)κһֵصı仯Ӱ˿ֵܼ
ġ103ҳ5ε25УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ16ҳ72֣
1ƷֵƷֵɲƷĹܡԡƷʡƷʽ
ļֵǹ˿ҪݣҲǹ˿ѡƷҪءһ
£Ǿ˿͹ֵܼСĹؼҪءġ103
ҳ6ε14УϮޣӪۻztglobrandȫƷ
13ҳ95֣
ο6
ʹ˿ͻø󡰹˿öɼֵ;֮һӹ˿͹ֵܼ
˿ֵܼɲƷֵֵԱֵֵɣÿһֵ
صı仯ֵܼӰ졣ޣӪۻztglobrandȫ
Ʒ13ҳ
1˿öɼֵĶܹ˿ֵܼ˿ܳɱصӰ
졣 ˿ֵܼǲƷֵ(product value)ֵ(services value)
Աֵ(personn al value)ֵ(image value)صĺɱʾ
Ϊ tcv=f(pdspsi) κһֵصı仯Ӱ˿
ֵޣӪۻztglobrandȫƷ16ҳ
1ƷֵƷֵɲƷĹܡԡƷʡƷʽ
ļֵ ǹ˿ҪݣҲǹ˿ѡƷҪأ
һ£Ǿ˿͹ֵܼСĹؼҪءƷֵɹ
ҪģڷƷֵʱӦע⣺ޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ13ҳ 

ƷǲƷֵ壬ӪеĲƷεʵҲ
ķҪԷΪֻͣƷֻʽṩ棬
صֻɺķ棬yahoobaidu.com 
ۻۡн߽ĲƷ
dangdang.com,taobao.comƷǿΪһƷӶķ
棬EMS ݲѯڻиȫ󡢴ٶȿ졢ͳɱ
ԣӪṩֻƷ߷ƣ
ۺͷУӪԼͳۺͷеľ޴Լʱ
ƣӪԼ͵ɱΪͳĲƷв컯Ϊµ
ƷǿԣṩĲƷֵ

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2ֵֵָƷʵĳۣҵ˿ṩĸ
ָӷļֵֵǹɹ˿ֵܼҪ֮һ
ġ103ҳҲ2ε13УϮޣӪۻztglobrand
ȫƷ14ҳ65ִ֣гӪʵУˮƽ
ߺѹı仯ѡƷʱעƷֵĸߵͣ
ҸӲƷӼֵĴСرͬƷʴͬ
Ƶ£ҵ˿ṩĸӷԽ걸ƷĸӼֵԽ󣬹˿
лõʵԽ󣬴ӶֵܼԽ󣻷֮ԽС
ġ103ҳҲ2ε38УϮޣӪۻztglobrandȫ
Ʒ14ҳ157֣724 СʱߣӪʱ
˿͵ǰСۺķҪ󣬸ӷ㡢ݡ
ο7
2ֵֵָƷʵĳۣҵ˿ṩĸ
ӷ ƷܡͻװԡάޡѵƷ֤
ļֵֵǹɹ˿ֵܼҪ֮һִгӪʵ
Уˮƽߺѹı仯ѡƷʱ
עƷֵĸߵͣҸӲƷӼֵĴСرͬ
ƷʴͬƵ£ҵ˿ṩĸӷԽ걸
ƷĸӼֵԽ󣬹˿ʹлõʵԽ󣬴ӶֵܼҲԽ
󣻷֮ԽСˣṩʲƷͬʱṩƵķ
ѳΪִҵг½㡣ޣӪۻztglobrand
ȫƷ14ҳй֣

 ƺ8
3ԱֵԱֵָҵԱľӪ˼롢֪ʶˮƽҵ
ЧӪ硢ӦļֵҵԱֱӾ
ҵΪ˿ṩĲƷŹ˿͹ֵܼĴСġ
103ҳҲ3ε14УϮޣӪۻztglobrandȫƷ
14ҳ99֣ӪеԱֵͨӵرֳ
߿ԸԼĲͬƫãѡԼϲĽӴ档Ȼ
ֱ֮ӽӴһɺͶ˼Ļᣬ
жϡ
ο8
3ԱֵԱֵָҵԱľӪ˼롢֪ʶˮƽҵ
Ч Ӫ硢ӦļֵҵԱֱӾ
ҵΪ˿ṩĲƷŹ˿͹ֵܼĴСޣ
ӪۻztglobrandȫƷ14ҳй֣


 ƺ9
4ֵֵָҵƷṫγɵ
ļֵҵĲƷװ̱ꡢ
ļֵ˾ԱְҵΪӪΪ̬ȡ
ΪļֵԼҵļֵѧ
ļֵȡġ103ҳҲ4ε16УϮޣӪ
ztglobrandȫƷ14ҳ145ֵ֣Ʒֵ
ֵԱֵأں̶ֵܴۺõķӳ
ͽҵ˵ǱʲõҵĲƷ
޴֧ãƷϸߵļֵӶ˿;ϺϵС
θУʹ˿͵Ҫø߲κ͸޶ȵ㣬Ӷӹ˿͹
ֵġ103ҳҲ4ε611УϮޣӪۻ
ztglobrandȫƷ14ҳ155֣ӪͨṩõĲƷ
΢ķеĽ棬Ӫĸ߿Ƽܸ˿һõ

ο9
4ֵֵָҵƷṫγɵ
ļ ֵҵĲƷװ̱ꡢ
ļֵ˾ԱְҵΪӪΪ̬ȡ
ΪļֵԼҵļֵѧ
ļֵȡֵƷֵֵԱֵأں̶ܴ
ֵۺõķӳͽҵ˵Ǳ
ʲõҵĲƷ޴֧ãƷϸߵļֵ
Ӷ˿;ϺϵСθУʹ˿͵Ҫ߲κ
޶ȵ㣬Ӷӹ˿͹ֵܼˣҵӦ߶
죬ΪҵΪ˿ʹļֵޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ14ҳй֣ 

 ƺ10
2.˿͹ܳɱʹ˿ͻø󡰹˿öɼֵ
һ;ǽ͹˿͹ܳɱġ103ҳҲ5ε12
УϮޣӪۻztglobrandȫƷ14ҳ40֣
˿ܳɱǰҳɱʱɱɱصĺ
TCC=f(M,T,E)κһɱصı仯Ӱ˿ܳɱɴӰ
öɼֵĴСġ103ҳҲ5ε25УϮޣӪ
ۻztglobrandȫƷ16ҳ80ַ
ο10
3.˿͹ܳɱ   ʹ˿ͻø󡰹˿öɼֵ;֮
͹˿͹ܳɱ˿ܳɱҳɱһʱɱ
ɱɱȷǻҳɱޣӪۻztglobrandȫ
Ʒ1415ҳй֣
˿ܳɱǰҳɱ(monetary price)ʱɱ(time cost)
ɱ (energy cost)صĺ tcc=f (mte)κһ
ɱصı仯Ӱ˿ܳɱɴӰ조˿öɼ۵ĴСޣ
ӪۻztglobrandȫƷ16ҳй֣

 ƺ11
һ£˿͹ƷʱҪǻҳɱĴСˣҳɱ
ǹɹ˿ܳɱСҪͻءڻҳɱͬ£˿ڹ
ʱҪѵʱ䡢ȣЩ֧Ҳǹɹ˿ܳɱ
Ҫءġ103ҳҲ5ε58104ҳ1УϮ
ܣִͻϸΪҵӪϡ18ҳ5Σ812УԼ
85ַ
ο11
һ£ͻƷʱҪǻҳɱĴС˻ҳɱ
ͬ£ͻڹʱҪѵʱ䡢ȣЩ֧
ҲǹɿͻɱҪءܣִͻϸΪҵӪ
ϡ18ҳ5Σ812У

 ƺ12
1ʱɱڹ˿ֵܼɱһ£ʱɱԽͣ
˿͹ܳɱԽСӶ˿öɼֵԽڷͬ£
˿͵ȺʱԽѵʱɱԽ󣬹ܳɱͻ
Խ󡣣ġ104ҳ1ε14УϮޣӪۻzt
globrandȫƷ15ҳ106֣
ο12
1ʱɱڹ˿ֵܼɱһ£ʱɱԽͣ
͹ ܳɱԽСӶ˿öɼֵԽԷҵΪ˿
Ϊ͹ݡùݡеȷҵṩķʱҪȺһʱ
ܽ뵽ʽѽ׶ΣرӪҵ߷ڸˡڷͬ
£˿͵ȺʱԽѵʱɱԽ󣬹
ܳɱͻԽ󡣣ޣӪۻztglobrandȫƷ15ҳ
й֣

 ƺ13
ڴͳĹУ˿һҪռϢѡ
ƷȷƷ㡪װƷȡһϵй̡е൱
ۻصɵģټϹΪƷѵ·;ʱȣʹ
˿ͱʱ;кܴĸͬʱӵĽͨĵ
ӳΪķѵʱ;Ӫܹı־
棬ʹ̲һֳصĸ֮ǰͨ˿ṩḻ
ĲƷϢϣ֤רƷûȡ˿ڲܸ
ŵĻ£ԸΪǵرȽͬƷķ
У˿軨ʱȥ̳Ϊϵͻ̳Ա
档ϣһнüѸ٣ڼмɵ̵ι䣬õ
ӻҽ㣬ڼȴݹ˾ѻʡȴ鷳
ġ104ҳ1ε4-19УϮߣǳӪеĹ˿
öɼֵ170ҳ23Σ335ַ
ο13
ڴͳĹ﷽ʽ, Ʒ,һҪ-ѡƷ-
ȷ蹺Ʒ--װƷ-ȡ(ͻ) һϵй̡
̴ۻصɵ, 򼸷, Сʱ, ټϹ
ΪƷȥﳡ·;ʱ䡢ķ;ʱ估ڹصĶʱ, 
ǴӳƷ, ʹΪƷʱ;
ܴĸͬʱ, ӵĽͨĵӳ߹
ѵʱ;
֮, Ӫһ˵ĳ, ʹĹ̲һ
ֳصĸ, ʱһ, һ֡߹ǰ, վ
ṩḻĲƷϢ(֤רƷ) , 
ҽѺ, ڲִС߿ڱȽϸͬƷܼ۸
Ժ, ڹ, ҲԶ̳ȥ, 
ʱҲų, ĵȴ, ҲΪϵͻ̳Ա
档, һжôѸ١ڼмɹ̵, õӻ
ȵ, ʡȥ鷳ߣǳӪеĹ˿öɼֵ
170ҳ23Σ

 ƺ14
2ɱ(ɱ)ɱָ˿͹Ʒʱھ
ĺķ֧ڹ˿ֵܼɱһ£
ԽС˿ΪƷ֧ܳɱԽͣӶ˿öɼֵԽΪ
߹ƷĹһӲѰϢжѡ񡢾ʵ
ʩȫ̡ġ104ҳ2ε16УϮޣӪ
ۻztglobrandȫƷ15ҳ147֣
ο14
2ɱɱɱָ˿͹Ʒʱھ
ĺķ֧ڹ˿ֵܼɱһ£
ԽС˿ΪƷ֧ܳɱԽͣӶ˿öɼֵԽ
Ϊ߹ƷĹһӲѰϢжѡ񡢾
ʵʩԼܵȫ̡ڹ̵ĸ׶Σ踶һ
ޣӪۻztglobrandȫƷ15ҳ

ڹ̵ĸ׶ΣҪصϢ˿͵ĹʵϾ
ϢѰҡȽϵḶ́ѵľɴӪڻ
洢ԡʱԡԡԣʹӪϢĴͽ
ŵƣܹԼ˿ʱ;
3ҳɱӪʹϢͽЧʴΪߣʹ
ϢɱԴ½Ʒɱʹü۸½ΪܡڴͳӪ
УΪҵӵеϢԳƣʹʱʮ
ӪߴݵϢͳý壬ӡ㲥ֽ־ȴ
ý壬ֻܵǿԵһڷϢֻܱܡ
й㷺ĴʱԣԺ׵ؽ˫ͨ缼
߿ȫ˽ƷϢΪרҵ͹ߡѵ
ԣƹмֱ߶ټϹ˿ͿȫΧѰ
Żݵļ۸пԸ͵ļ۸ʵֹ
ġӪֵ
ϷӪܹṩĳЩĲƷֵʵǰ
ۺͨڣͷɱΪ˿ṩ͵ļ۸ù
ֻڼͨԼƷԼ˿͵ʱ
;͹˿͵ķǻҳɱļֵٵĳɱ˿ͻö
ֵù˿͸⡣

 ƺ15
ƹԴҵΪͻĳɱļֵֵǿͻ
Ը֧ļǮֵԵڶֵļ۸ṩͬȵЧ棬
ṩĶصЧ油߼۶ࡣġ104ҳҲһΣ14У
ԸࡶҵӪսԷ,49ҳ2Σ15У80
ַ
ο15
ìܣɱ컯
ضΪɱ컯ҵչսԡΪ
ƹԴҵΪͻĳɱļֵֵǿͻԸ
֧ļǮֵԵڶֵļ۸ṩͬȵЧ森ɱȣ
ṩĶصЧ油߼۶ࡣ컯ࡶҵӪ
սԷ,49ҳ2Σ15У

ҵԣĿΪ󻯡ҵԸӪ
ļֵóЩΪ˿ʹĹ˿ͼֵͬʱҵ
㣬ӪǷΪļֵȻ˿ʹļֵ
ҵֵǰᡣ
ƺϵϺѧزѧԺԺϵϺѧʹѧԺ
˶ʿо

(XYS20090518)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ʦѧԺԺȷġѧۡĳϮΪ

ߣ

ʦѧԺԺȷ2003һѧۡ
棬ָΪʦѧԺѧרҵоרҵ̲ġ2003
λʦѧԺѧоĶз֣뱱ʦѧ
ѧԺͯࡢ1998ɸ߽̳ġѧ۽̡̳ͬ
ͳϮ֮Ϊ˿гɹܶ˲šн󣬻кܶѧ
ۡѧӳȷġѧۡ11Уڶġ塢
ߡˡʮʮһ£ͯġѧ۽̡̳мʮͬϮ
ԱȺʵȫʵ

Ϊ˱˵ȷġѧۡơͯġѧ
۽̡̳ơͯ

һͯһµ3ҳ

ѧһѧΪԽʾѧɣ֪ʶΪĿĵ
ѧƣ֧ѧۡѧѧʷӽǺͷĶ
ʹѧ۳ֳ̬ͬѧѧѧѧѧѧѧ
ѧѧֵѧѧϢѧѧĻѧѧ۵Ļ̬

һµ12ҳ
ѧʵָоѧѧʣӦýСѧѧں
ϰͨѡѧѧΪѧһΪѧӦð֧
ѧʷѧѧۡѧӦðѧѧѧѧ
ѧѧѧѧѧֵѧȸ̬

ͯµ57-59ҳѧʶ̬
ڶ  ѧʶ̬
һ	ѧΪһʶ̬
Ҫ˽ѧʶ̬ԣҪ˽ʶ̬ṹеλá
ṹ湹ɣľûϲ㽨˼ָ
ԣ
˼˼ľûһӦ
ϵۺϹɵġͷչʻھû
ɸֲͬġֶصС롢˼뷽ʽ۹ɵϲ㽨
ϲ㽨ɾûӰԼĸƶȼС롢
˼뷽ʽ۵ܺ͡ϲ㽨棺һΡƶȣ
ʶ̬ѧڽ̡ѧȡ
˼Ľͣûṹеվ
Լϲ㽨ͬʱϲ㽨Ҳȫģھûͬʱ
˼⣬ϲ㽨еʶ̬Ρƶ뾭
ûҪԶЩ

ڶµڶҲУ23-25ҳѧһʶ̬
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λõǰᣬԴˣ˼Ͷ˹Ŀǳֵӡ˼
ĸأΪ󲿷֣һǾûһϲ㽨
ָһչ׶εϵܺͣͷչĻ
ϲ㽨ָھû֮ϵΡƶԼѧ¡ڽ̡
ȸʶ̬ϲ㽨ܾûԼַھû
㽨еʶ̬ѧڽ̡ѧηƶ
˵뾭ûҪԶһЩ

 ͯ¡ѧΪ֮ڡѧķ
ѧԴļҪѧ˵˵Ϸ˵Ͷ˵ȣ
չĲƽϵ
ڵڶ¡ѧ֮ڣ47-49ѧԴ
롰ᷢչѧչĲƽϵʱ롶ͯ۵ֻͬ
һЩֳݣĴвͬѡ
ġͯµڶڣ132ҳ
һ˼
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˼ڲϻۺֵĻϣĳִʹ
£ͨ䡢еԸ˼ʽġ
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ʵʡţҲҪĽ׶Ρ

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˼
˼ʱѧĻڡָ۵Ļϣ
ĳִָ£ͨӵͷаѸزת
Ϊṹ˼ά̡˼ѧĵڶȴ
ؼһǾšԾĽ׶Ρ
עͯһоѧеĳ˼롢ͻڱ
οŵȷʽ˲ڵ¡ѧһ¶Դ˽
ա򻯺͡ıࡱ־ͬܶ˼ȴһ

塢ͯʮ¡ѧƷıκѧ̬֮
ڡѧ󡷣230-231ҳ
УһʣѧѧѧѧŹ
;й״һ롣Դͷݵ?
ϵǡƣ
Ի鲻ԣԲ⡣Ȼʥ֮⣬䲻ɼԻʥ
Ծ⡣
Ĺǡ֮󡱡ѧ׷
ĸ߼ҹۼҶ˵֮֮
ְʫ֤֮֮֮£ְ֮ʫ֮֮в֮
֮£֮Ĭ֮޲ȻǰҲ ֡
֮֮¡ ҶֳΪ¡Ϊʫ
׷Ӧֱ֡¡ĸ߼󣬲Ϊﵽ


¡ѧ֮һڡѧ󡷣136-137
йŴۺѧУԹһ⡣Ϊʾ
Ҫ۷룬ڸж֡
йŴһԴͷݵԴͷ
ݵ?ϵǡԻ鲻ԣԲ⡣Ȼʥ֮⣬䲻ɼ
ԻʥԾ⡣ɼĹǡ֮󡱡ѧ
Ϊ˱˵顪⽻š顱飬
Ŵѧ⡣ѧҶ˵֮֮
ְʫ֤֮֮֮£ְ֮ʫ֮֮в֮
֮£֮Ĭ֮޲ȻǰҲ ֡
֮֮¡ֱҶƳΪ¡
ʫ˾Ҫ֡¡
עݡ֡Ծʽ֪ͬʶ־бͨ
ֻͨΪγϮֶζѣ

ͯʮ¡ѧƷıκѧ̬֮
ڡ⾳223-224ҳ
һ⾳γɼ綨
⾳ҹŵ۶һġĵɵġʫƷ
ѿʼĸʫۣʢ֮ѧ⾳ۿʼȫγɡ
ഫġʫУֱˡ⾳ʱ˼
ֻʫеһʫһԻﾳΪɽˮʫȪʯƷ֮
ߣ֮ģھӾģӨȻУȻ˼Ȼ
󣬹ʵơԻ龳ֳԹȻ˼
侳Ի⾳֮˼֮ģӡ֮ʫɮ
Ȼְ⾳оƽһ硰ԵԻ顱ּ֮
ȡҪ⣬ȫ淢չ⾳ۡԺˡ
⡱Ĺ۵㣬˾ͼԴ˼ˡ֮󣬾֮͡
ּ֮ζּ֮ȹ۵㣬һ⾳о򡭡ĩά
⾳۵ļߡ

¡ѧ֮ڶڡѧ⾳151-153
һѧ⾳ȥ
⾳йŴѧһصġζ۷롭ѧ⾳
ġĵɵġʫƷѼߣʢ֮ʼȫγɡ
⾳ڴΪƴʫѧʫ񡷣ʫһԻ
ΪɽˮʫȪʯƷ֮ߣ֮ģھӾ
ģӨȻУȻ˼Ȼ󣬹ʵơԻ龳ֳԹ
Ȼ˼侳Ի⾳֮˼֮ģ
ӡ
֮ʫɮȻְ⾳оƽһ硰Ե
Ի顱ּ֮ȡҪ⡭Ժˡ
⡱Ĺ۵㡭˾ͼˡ֮󣬾֮֮͡
ּζּ֮ȹ۵㣬һ⾳о򡭡ĩά
۵ļߡ

ߡͯʮ¡ѧƷıκѧ̬֮ڶ
ڡѧ͡214-215ҳ
ͣTupos/typs۴һķչ¾
׶Ρ17ǰĵ͹ۻ˵ǿ͵ձԺ
ԣ18Ժ󣬿ʼӹԵӸԵת䣬γ˸Ե͹ռ
ʱڣ1980ĩ˼͹ڳ죬ĵ
չһոµĽ׶Ρ20֮ĵתƣڵ
͵оԵóţ˼͹ۣȴҵõӦú
չҳΪ֮һ
˼йĴԺҹ
ӦڽʼģȺֹ׼͡ ˵ ԡ˵
˵ȻżȻϵ˵ʱֵġԳ͡˵
н顪⡱˵ȵȡЩӲͬǶȣ𲽱ƽ˵͵ıʺ
ḻ˼ۡ

¡ѧ֮ڡѧ͡163-165
ͣTupos۴һ֮۵
չ¾׶Σ17ǰĵ͹ۻ˵ǿ
͵ձԺԣ18Ժ󣬿ʼӹԵӸԵת䣬
γ˸Ե͹ռʱڣ1980ĩ˼͹ڳ죬
ĵ۷չһոµĽ׶Ρ20֮
ĵתƣڵ͵оԵóš    
Ҫ˶֮ܵйġ֮ҹѧ
۽һֵ̽⣬Ⱥֹ׼͡ ˵ ԡ˵
˵ȻżȻϵ˵ʱֵġԳ͡˵
н顪⡱˵ȵȡЩӲͬǶȣ𲽽ӽ˵͵ıʺ
ḻ˼ۡ
ˡͯʮ¡ѧƷıκѧ̬֮ڶ
ڡѧ͡220-221ҳ
ͻеĵ
ע뻷Ĺϵ˼˹ʼڸ⣬18
˼ҵҵҲע⵽һ⣬ΪԸҪ
Ĵ˼˹һʷΨĹ۵ѧز
ǵԸγɵĹϵʷΨ۹۲ѧ
ˡʵֵͻеĵ⡣ǶԵ۵ش
ס˹ڡ.˹дҿʵ˼ǣ
ϸڵʵ⣬ҪʵֵͻеĵǱ
ԣǹ͵ģǻЩﲢʹǻĻҲͲ
ˡνͻǳֵʵϵʵò
ԾصĸԷӳضʷʱʵϵ
ƵĴ󻷾ְʷγɵĸľ廷
νʵϵơݣһʵϵʵ
ʱͶ֡ơֱӵġֵģ
һġǱĿ͹۴ڣֻеìܼĽ׶βŻʡ
ܷץסʵرֳ书ֱǣһλҵ
˼ˮƽͶй󲻾ã׶ضͷͱ˴
ģĹ˶˵˹Ļдʵ
¡ѧ֮ڡѧ͡171-173
ͻеĵ
˼˹֮ǰ۽ѿʼע뻷Ĺϵ¹ŵ
ѧļߺڸΪ˼ҵҵҲע⵽һ⣬
ΪԸҪǵĴ˼˹һ
ʷΨĹ۵ѧزǵԸγɵĹϵ
ʷΨ۹۲ѧˡʵֵͻеĵ
⡣ǶԵ۵شס˹ڡ.˹
дҿʵ˼ǣϸڵʵ⣬Ҫʵֵ
ͻеĵǱԣǹ͵ģǻ
ЩﲢʹǻĻҲͲˡ
ʲôµͻأͻǸձԵͳһȰԾ
صĸԷӳضʷʱʵϵƵĴ󻷾ְ
ʷγɵĸľ廷ǳֵʵϵʵò
ľ
ġʵϵơ˼һʵϵʵ
ʱͶ򡭡ʵϵġơֱӵġ
ֵģһġǱĿ͹۴ڣֻеìܼĽ׶β
ʡҪ֡ʵϵơĵͻͱ
߻ۣʵƩ˹ġй󲻾ã
׶ضͷͱ˴ģĹ˶˵˹Ļдʵ
:ֱӵĳϮ⣬ЩνߵԼʵǶԡͯ
ת͸д˼ͬС죩

šͯʮһ¡Ʒ֮һڡ½綨238ҳ
ڶڡݡ244-248ҳĽڡ258ҳ  
¡Ʒ֮һڡġ175-182ҳ
ڡʽ185-195ҳ 
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Ʒ¹ΪѧƷ
ͳѧۡѧصйоγ൱ϵͳ
ۡͳ۶ѧйڵİš
Լдȷ涼оڳڵķչγϵͳۡ
йŴʫΪԺС˵ϷķչҲ
˹ѧۣӰĵ֮ʵҽʥ̾
С˵籾ΪԸ֮ۡйͳ
жŷḻݡЩͳ۵ձصǲ
̸ѧֵݣӶγ˺ܽڡ
ҪΪĵۡ

ƷͬƷ¹ΪѧƷ
ѧص㣬ͳѧעйоγ
Ƚϵͳۡͳ۶ѧйڵİš
Լдȷ涼˱ȽойŴ
ۣоҪʫģԺС˵ϷѧƷķչ
ѧҲӦչĩҽʥ̾Ϊ
ԸӰ֮йͳж
ŷḻݡЩͳ۵ձصǲ̸ѧ
ֵݣӶγĵڡҪΪĵ
ۡ
Ϯַܸǰߵѡѹд
΢仯ʾʱ۷̫׾ӡΪ׾ӵǣͯ
ԭﱾȷĳϮ߲װидʽԺԺ
˼Ͳͨˣ硶ͯġԺС˵ϷķչҲ˹
ѧۡдΪԺС˵ϷѧƷ
ķչѧҲӦչˡƷ֣
ͨ

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չһ¼
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ʧ
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á¥Ρٸϳ¼ƶڣ˱찮
Ӱ˱񡢱ε˺ˣãǿ
Ը죬Ϊȫһյĸ߳


¼Ϊɣһ¼оԶԣ
һ¼һµλ
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ĵλµԺԾͻᱻƻȱ¼
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3ͯ
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²Ӱ˱񡢱ε˺ˣãǿ
Ը죬Ϊȫһյĸ߳

ЩС˵ģﲻΪ˹ڶõģ
ġʵԸʿΪҪģ
ڸļ෴ڡѧָԸֵ
ġҹͳҲԸڵĲͬ⡣ʥ̾
ˮ䰴ʱ˵һ飬һ鼴ݣСˮ䰴ֻǿᣬ
޷Ϊһٰ˸Ը񣬶д
۵ĸԴƷ˫ص㣺жԪɫ
жԪ˼˵ƶڷչжҪء
Ʒеݣ·ʱ䡢ص㶼ͬȴ
ͬĸоΪеȻơݱȥʵ
ͬһ͵жԪ˵ǵжĿġʽơ
˵ӼС˵ص㡢ʱ䶼ͬȴ롶ǡ
ƵļҪжԪɣսֵ׷ߣӣ׷
ˣݺݺٽߣѡͻ澵ȣߣȨ
ƵϷˣƻߣСˣ֣㣩
ģ
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ڹѧ缮ѧƽƽⱾ鵱ڣ
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(XYS20090518)

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һǡͨѶԱдΥǵııȥ

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׷ִѧĸˣ˭Ʒ

ߣIT

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ҽϵҲָʾ ߣ Դҽ ʱ䣺2008-3-2 

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ҽ׷

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۵ͷ¾ǡִѧĸˣǺǵͷ񣬵
ȥҲƪ¡

ŵƪ±֮ϣʾϢ:

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ߣ|zhaolao@126.com

£2008-03-02 1:56:19

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Ȼ󲿷Ƿʽ

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ΰ2007α֯еġѧ--ѧֻ

2006ǰͨŵַǳɳݣƼվһν¿Ƽչ
˾Ʒΰҩı壬ܾѻԷһTitleҽо
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ҵ    

أ    -  ױ  -    
Ŀǰסأ    -  ɳ  -    
Ը     
ϰߣ  Ӳ ӲȾ ҹ  
ͣ  е 
״̬  ѻ 
ѧ  ר 
ǰְҵ  ҽ/ 
ҾͶѧУ  ѧҽҩѧ  
ְĵλ  ̫. 
עʱ䣺  2008-03-06 00:22 
¼ʱ䣺  2009-05-12 13:03 
˼飺  ҽ,ѧеѧ,ΰ֢,
оҽ,԰֢Լصļ,ҽȫܹ֢. 

ϵʽ  15116488689 


ΪĲأټḻαѧ£
ΰĹ۵㼰ķǰΪεԱȡ

׵óִۣѧĸˣƪļ϶ΰΪ

ΰڡҽ,ѧеѧо
ʮӶʮ

ִѧеĴǼ.......򣬹ĲԵĻʶ
ѧеѧҽзرڡҽһ
Ľڣѧǰ 

䡶Ȼѧ

ǿɴóۣ

׷ִѧĸˣվȨΰ

ֶָʾΰǸߣ

ӹ۵㼰ķ񿴣ҲΰƷ

ϣ֪ιʣλα쵼˵ȴΪ
ҽлꣿ

(XYS20090518)

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ĳ©
һʵ֤ҽйءվסš

ߣMichael Shermer

αġ롰ġһЧ

ŵҼӵˣŬиҪгᴩ
½ļ¼1980꣬ڳɹˣ123Сʱ4800ǧ׵ľ롣
ҵʱҲЧԣһ꣬ʽʼг˶ÿܸ
ӢҲμѵγ̣ءȡάءʳϴ
ԡĤϡƷĦԼġ

ȻԹĴطûʲôãҷ֡1985ᴩг
(ŵҹͬ)Ļʤ߰ԶĺԮŶһʦ
ҵȤ(ΪBoyerӮ)ŵͰԶĳɹ
ĳҽѧϵԭ

ͳҽΪһֱΪ徭磬12
ԴһϵͳЩϹ365Ѩλһеÿһ춼һ
ѨλӦʧ˾ڡͨѨλ
(ΪԼ2000Ѩλ)룬ݳڼĿ

һѧʵûκݣΪûÿѧֹ
ĶȻҽƷ֮Ч
ԭ򣬶ĴۡͨĶ֯е̼
ʹֹʹĵЧ봫ͳ100ҵҽʦĽ
ۡһλʦӵҽѧѧʿѧλԽԭ
̽ءͽ̿顶ѧȺ19922002ʥ·˹и
ֳ档ΪڵĴ̼ͷųӰϵͳĻ
ѧʣ- ڷȡԿ˷ȺʹԷȣӶֹʹá˵ʵ
붼ҪõƤд̼Ƥ񾭴̼㹻ˡָ
ȡּеɼ50

Щֿڽͷ20054¡ҽѧ`ϵо
ڷУֵºڵ¹ĽڹҵѧͬǶ302
ġαģڷѨλûаĵƫͷʹ߽бȽϡо
䣬ߵͷʹ֢״˲־ȫ֪ԼһС顣
Ҳ֪־˭ġƹרҵʦƿءо
ϷԣΪЧߣͷʹ50ϣıڽĵС
ռ51ڽαĵСռ53ڵȺ(δ)С
Ҳռ15ߵĽǣֽĵķضѧЧӦ
ҲĳǿҵİοЧӦ߼֮

ҵľ飬롱ʦĲתղ룩ʹ
ԿԸоõĵЧֹοͿ̼
ͷųȻֹʹʡαġ롰ġЧ൱֤
۳©̼Чݺӡ˽ʹѧ
ѧҵõۡҽѧָһоķ
򣬵ѧܹǷЧΨһֶΡ

[Գɣ  У]
ԭءѧ200510

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

˵ļʵޡ

ߣƼ

ʵڴ̸""ļ,"볤ڼֵ".
һ۵,Ϊ,˵˵,˵С˵,ʵ̸"".

˿̳һ򳫵˼ľ.,ǱҪһ:Ϊʲô
""ڼֵ?

ʵᵽ˸:"й20˿".
˵,Ϊй˿ڶ,߸׼ȷһ˵,й˿ڻϴ,йô
.

֤Ǿõ.

йܲ20˿Ȳ̸.˵һйǲ"˿ڶ",
ⲻ.֪,Գʶ,˿ڶٲֻ˿ھ"
""",Ӧ˿ܶȵĶ.

ϵ֪,й˿ܶȴԼΪ136ÿƽ,ϵλΪ56λ
(άٿ:˿ܶб.ַ:

http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E4%BA%BA%
E5%8F%A3%E5%AF%86%E5%BA%A6%E5%88%97%E8%A1%A8&variant=zh-tw),ɴ˿ɼ,
й˿ڲûк"".

ֵע,˿ڱйĹ,Ȱձ,Ϻ,й̨,¼
µ޹Һ͵,Ӣ¹ŷ޷,Щ,ö
й.,ձڶ󾭼,ձ˿ܶȴй
.Ӣ,¹͸˵.

˵,Ϊ˿ڶ,˿й÷չĻ,ôЩҺ͵,
˿ΪʲôûзõĿٷչ?

Ȼ,Ҫ˵,Ǻ׵,֤Ҳܲλ,
˵,Լ򵥵һ"˿ڶ",Ͳ˶йδʮشӰ"
",Ǻܲص.

˻˵,ձ˿ܶ,й˿ڽṹ,,ٰ.
Ǻ.

뷨е,ʵվס.һ:˿ڽṹ˵,
,ȴ,,ȴ,ɼ,˿ڵĶ뾭õķ̶Ȳ
Ǽ򵥵عϵ.

,Ҫ˵˿ڽṹ,ձ.ձɭָԼΪ66.7%,
һ,,ڶĻɽ,,и11.1%(
΢ձվ:http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761566679/Japan.html),
ʺ˾סĵط20%.Сط,ȴڶ󾭼.
ѵ˵,ʹй˶ʮ˿,˿ܶҲ200ÿƽ
,ձö˿,һȡ˻Ի͵ľóɾ,ʲô
?

ɴ˿ɼ,˿ڶΪйʵмһ""ĸ,վס
.

ʵ,õķչ,ҪͶ,йѾ񹤻ĵ,
һ̶˵,йͶѾϾ÷չĽŲ.ֹͣƻ
ʱѾ.

ʵ,Ҳͬ˵,һ˼Ҷ
.ʵ,йƽͥ,ѧ,ҵ,޳ɱ˵,
ܳصĸ.ʹȡ˼ƻ,Ҳ಻ڶ̥.

йʵеļƻ,ûи,ҵһƪСĲ˵,
λ˿רָԽ.һҪ,Ƽƻ
"",Ͽ̵ľ,гֵĿѧ,дĵо,
صĿѧ,꾡Ŀѧ.

쵼ԴߵµĶ,Ǽƻһ߶,ԸƵش
ܸ"".
(ҵĲ: http://jk00072002.blog.163.com)

(XYS20090518)

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