                           ˿µϣ20091106գ

09.11.05ûи
09.11.06, ӡӬҲܡ
09.11.06, ӽĿԤ棺й˵ġŵ֮Ρ
09.11.06, 𡶸ѧУԺʿܶ㿪νLeibnizɡ
09.11.06, СһԺе㡰ԩ
09.11.06, ѧһҽԺһŭְ©ٳıѧһҽԺġǿҿ顱ԡ
09.11.06, ߡѧǮѧɭ硷
09.11.06, ˼ΪʵǮѧɭش塷
09.11.06, 񡶶Ǯѧɭ20ʴиС
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09.11.06, ˮ׷ʣΪֻйˮ翪ƶ
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09.11.06, coubertgamebugФҽڵǺġ
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09.11.06, Freedomӭտڡ߽ѧݵܡ
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09.11.06, ȱʬ̬̹˾

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                             ӬҲ

                              ӡ

    һЩרҡڹһЩרҡָ£һݡﱣ
רҽ壩ǷΧ֮㣬涨֮ϸŶǰС˵
ĶﱣָıΣָıһ㶯ﲻŰʵָ
︣漰︣ʱҪһѪѪ
綯ʵõѪࣩܵĳЩơѪ
ҲҪ°ͳھͷǰһֻӬҲҪָ𣬾ͱЦ


    רҽ塱ȴҪԶһͬʣĹ涨ҪĶ
ǻ嶯桢鶯ȵһжôһδ˾
ù̫ܵˡ涨ֹչʵ顱Сϴ
ϷҲǷˡ

    ѧҿչʵ飬ȻΪ˺棬ǳŰ
ΪŪӰ춯ءǻﵽ鶯е
ﶼΪʳżضҲ⣬оΪ
ΪЩרҡԱ˷û¸ɣ˵ܰĳ
Щ⡣Ҳ֪ϻĸ׼ֹչʵ飬ʵ
ǵǰѧоһȵ㡣ҽѧԺάʵҾרӬ
ʵģϷΪӬֲѧʵҲƵ
ֲԺҲܴȡ֮ݡ

    ӬһС͵ĲӬԼֻͨӬһ롣һ˶ԹӬӡ
Ҳǻᱻõˮ裬ǻụܡ
ӬǺżȻس˱оΪ͸ʵ鶯֮һҲע⵽
ǻܺöϸͳŴѧĦҪоŴѧ⣬û뵽
鶯ľѣ˹ӬӴùӬŴѧоҪߡ1915
꣬Ħѧ˹Ӭʱ״ע⵽ֻӬȥ׷ͬһֻ
Ӭǻſ׷𣬲ͷײܿһֻߡ

    Ժ½ץӬܣǰѶֻӬһȺܣ
ȻȵͳӬֲڹҵؿţѭ
Ȧĳ׽ɱһһ֬
һƻ֭ΪƷΪ˴̼ѡ֣ƻ֭ϻһֻͷӬ
ͷӬǲܵģӬӬֻԴӬ°ȤȻ
ֻӬǴ¼̡

    2000ೡ֮оԱһЩȤķ֡Ӭս治
١º͵սǸֳȥǳ״ô
û֫Ӵڲս֮ĸսսδЧ
Ҫⲫһȥ̶֣ú֫վ˹ȥ
˫վǰ֫֡ҵ˫Ťһش

    νΪǿ˭ȷ˭ʤͱȽϴ󣬶ҵһι
ԽңʤԽһιõº͵սʤ31
һʼͷҽʤߵ161ˡҵһαĽ
ԺıӰ졣һαʧϢ30Ժս
ܻʤܶǰһεʤ߻ǵһӬԼʧܻ
вʹļ䣬ӰԺķӡ

    ŮһӬ֮Ҳܡº͵ö࣬ʹáȭ
Ť༤ֶΣǾײͷƼӬõսӬ
ͬǣӬĴûвԵʤߡơ۹ӬеĲͬ
֣һֽfruĻйءӬfruĴӬ汾Ӭ
ͺǡ֮ôӬfruӬ汾ǽӬһ⺷

    ùӬоϵĺôǺŴʵ飬ʵս
ǿĹӬÿα֮ǿѡºټѡ
ǿѡ֡ʮ󣬾͵õһ֧ӡô
һ֧ĿĲΪȥμӹӬ˻ᣬΪ˰ǺһѡȽϣ
Щ˱仯о42ӬΪйأ
ǳӡ

    ȻûƵŴѧʵ飬оΪҲ
һŴͨ鷢֣ӸױֳƵĺö򣬼ʹ
ǴСͱֿĽôȷҲѿ
صĻͨʵ飬ܰ౩ΪѧҲһ
ǵøƽһЩ

2009.10.26

й걨2009.11.4

(XYS20091106)

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ӽĿԤ棺й˵ġŵ֮Ρ

ӡ22ȹ۲졷

αӡӵ

ײ118գգ1030

ز1114գ1230

ԤƬ

http://video.sina.com.cn/finance/20091106/093822796.shtml

(XYS20091106)

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ѧУԺʿܶ㿪νLeibniz

ߣ

иѧšѧٱ붯񡱵Ľдɵ
--<ʸѧУԺʿʲôʱùLeibniz>(
:xys20091007)<˿>Ϸһ,Уû,
ȴһδ, Ǿ. ǵ°Ѹǰ쵼ע⵽
ĵֿûнҿʵд,ʱӦ˵һ,ҳ
ġðLeibnizǾ˵ģ벻УȻ޶,Ϊ,
һ<˿>Ϣһ,ôԴ:

1. ·,<˿>֮е۾ȫ濼֤ʵ,
д<ѧУĵһͰ>(xys20091009),ȷϺط־ء
1988Leibnizʾġ(о)Ϊ
SpiessоС1987LeibnizҪݡ;

2. λͬרҵĹѧ,̷<ڡʸѧ
УԺʿʲôʱùLeibnizͲ䡵(¹ѧ
:xys20091009),<ԺʿLeibniz˵е
>(suiji:xys20091009),Լ<ԺʿȽġ
ס>(Booksbooks:xys20091014),ָν1988 Leibniz޸
,רҵǶȷνоΪSpiessоС1987Leibniz
Ϊ޻̸;

3.  <̱>д<ר÷,ѧУ
>(xys20091014),

LeibnizĻĵ·˵:

4.  <¹SpiessӾԺʿĿг
>(Ott:xys20091011),<У>(ȥ:xys20091013)
,

5. һλʿ<˿><ѧУ˵ǵĵ£
ǵʹ>(xys20091011),Խıʷ,һ.

ܵĻûмƼϵķӦ,㹻ʾLeibniz
ɽ,֮ΪLeibniz()šҲΪ.һЩ̸
йѧ,ҲѾáLeibnizĻϢΪ
(μRenzhili:ийԵŵ,xys20091011),
ȺѾǶɶ,Գ۳Ϊල
͵.ڵ쵼»ý.Ϊ
У,ȴlȻ,ܲ˾?

2,պġѧʦĻɳʷ,,
<˿>Ϲ¶Ȼغ,Բ,վԱ,䶸Ц,
Ҳٵ׵ǿ.ڵλԶĴʦУ
ǰ,ȻϢ,.

ǾȵĲУĺر𵽼,ǰֳ
Լĳְȡر𲻸ε̬.θѧУں
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þǶ²ص,ȴʧسĬ.

һֻƽͷ,ֳĬϤ,ʹĻɳ
ʦֻҪǴʦҲˣֲڵڽѧӵĴ
ѧУ׷ܡȴǺպո߹,˹ѧ---Ժѧ
λίԱǰ,۶ɾֱӺǰְȨ.Щ
ϴ,,Ϻ,ⶼڵһʱڻ֪(ʵϵȷ
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У԰ѧΪĽǵĵ£ǵʹ
м,ӰľͲ,쵼·Ҫɹһ
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ȥ¹޹,Ե¹ѧϽһƽͷո˽.
Ӧ֪:Ҫһλ¹ѧȥ˹һ˻ðǸ
߽,ʲô?Ҫλѧ߻ǵ¹ƴѧУ,¹,
¹ѧĬ?йֽ׶ζѧٴĴ,
ԳĬӦ,ֻ˵йѧ.뿪ΪѧУ̫Զ
.

ڴǻò˵:ֳĬͬʱ,ѧί쵼
ȴΪ.ڶ<̱>йʵı̬,Բмһ˵Ŀ:ȱ֤ݣ
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,ԽλΪ.

ίǸķߵҪְܲ,ǰѧ
,ίӦôĴУ,Ⱥڼලҷ,Э
Ťת,ӦΪκԱ(۵λж)û,.<
>һⴿѧ·Χ,˽,˿漰,
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(Ϊʦ)ѧ¹㡱áLeibniz, һλ
Աһҹɰھ޸.,긴ѧĲ
ִʱ,ɣείǺУϸڣ
ڣϺпƼӢƺţԺʿԺѧλίԱκУ,.
ȻһɡLeibnizͬһǨϵ.ί
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ɡLeibniz̬>(:xys20091017)һжԸ
ί:

УԹߵȼĽ.ѧɼίԱ
ӦȺѸϱϼ(ѧԺίԱ, Ȼѧලί
Աͽ첿),ָͼල,йز,Ⱥϼ˲.Ӧ
ƴȺ.κζȺֵûӦıֻ̬Ūӡ.

µ,У˸Ӧ,ΨһܰشֻԼ.

(XYS20091106)

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һԺе㡰ԩ

ߣС

գڱѧһҽԺġ֮£۵ͦࡣ
һ²ʵĲҽǶȣҾñһԺе㡰ԩ

1 ļҽѧԺĸҽԺûʵϰҽʦÿҽԺŴһ
ʵϰҽһϡǴ߳أ

2 ζ˨ʱضɷ˭ܱ⣿Լ;ֹ
ʹĵζ˨ĽʡֻҪǷڷζɵ˨
Ľ֣κȶֹͣˡ

3 ʵڱѧһҽԺ˱ıҽֻ
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غѧʱȡܼҲ

(XYS20091106)

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©ٳıѧһҽԺġǿҿ顱

ߣѧһҽԺһŭְ

ѧһҽԺĸԷ:

һûϸȥ֮ǷֱرҲûȥӵ
Ŀ. Ƕǿҿ ǺܿЦ֪ţ

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ɲ˵ļдڹ𰸵ɣ ϣ߻ѹʺԼ
ֻҪͷԽĶ˵ οȥ˼Ů Ůڹ
ɣ οͺ޹οͺԩοǿҿˡԡй
ѧһҽԺίԱᡱ Ĩڣ

2. Ӽׯδͨʽɷóͨķʽ
ʵ , ҪʽĲɷã֪΢˽úδֻУȥɨ
ƴǵЩ Ҫǰ֪ͨЩҪȥɷã Щù
ôܻã  ŵıʵǲɷǣȻõԼ
ȫİ˹ʽĻظǻż߱ʵľ΢
˽ã δֻС Ǳ׽ڴԹûǰ֪ͨ ˶ģ

3.оͬͨҽѧǶѾȡҽѧѧʿѧλڽ
סԺҽʦѵϣҽʦѾƱҵȡҽѧѧʿѧλ
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ҽƻڴ˹ûϸѭϼҽʦָأ Ӧ
ҽƻ ƽСð֮ģ ԣ пشԵ
УûκξԱ߹񻹲࣬ ֱӲ룬 ëëţ 
ѵûзѵҲ̫ɾˣ

4.йѧһҽԺίԱᡱ⣡ҵ 
ǿҿ顱쵼˼أǸԱֱͨ
飿ǰߣ 쵼ʿôܴ浳˵ Ǻߣ 
ǿеʱĻ¼йѧһҽԺίԱǸҽԺ
Ȩṹ ǿǧǵ쵼֮Ŷ113
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ϸίԱӼϵҽԺѵʱ䣬Լʱ䣬 
ǵİЧôߣҹܹټԱᲢ
Ѹ顣ѧϰİ

5൱ӵӰ죬ȫԺְԱеޱ𾪺ͷ
 ȫԺְеޱ𾪺ͷŭֻ쵼е
޹⣿  ûе˵ ȫԺְеޱ.. ⲻҲһ
ʧʵ𣿴ӽĿǷþ飬ֻСʱȥǵ
ԱӼʱ䣬ѵʱ䣬Ǹûְ
˽Ƿޱ𾪺ͷ߿Ϲ˵ʵǵһ
磿  ְܶûж߲ޱ𾪺ͷ߿  ȴĪ
Ĵˣ ְǺԩְǵǶǵġʧʵݡ
еޱ𾪺ͷ߿ǿ⣡һο磡

ֻΪ棬ִٻӦڻӦ棬©ٳ ö֮Ե
塣 Ǻգ ǿ˵磡ǿȫԺְ
ǿȫĹڣ޳ܵοͣ

(XYS20091106)

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ѧǮѧɭ

ߣ

ѧǮѧɭ磬иж

ѧеǮѧɭͬ־  

--------------------------------------------------------

ڣ 2009-11-06  ϢԴ: У     

Ǯѧɭͬ־󣬱ѧǮѧɭͬ־ɥ췢磬Ǯ
еİ˼͵Ǯϵļ˺˺Сеοʡ
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Ϥҹ֮ҹҹֶࡿһǡˡҽܳ
׿ѧǮѧɭ20091031򲡴ѧеİ˼
͵˺ˡеοʡת˵еοʣ
Ҳ˵

Ǯѧɭһʱ˱йҲ
Ը߷Ϊ˰ðСһ
Сǰѧαѧ׷ԵԱ֤
칦ǴڵġԺƪΰҵйشС˾֡Ϊѧ
˵䷶һ˼롾Ķ޿ܣԶ׿ʶ
񡿣ԴǻۡOMGѧȷʵõǮϵ洫ǮĿӡ
Ϊտ걱ⶼĶĶѽġĲҴԽ
ٴνңǮߵúܰꣻ˵϶ҴпɡҹƼ硢
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Ǯѧɭ࣡  

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ʮһһ

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ʵǮѧɭش

ߣ˼Ϊ

˿ǮѧɭһЩʵۣýһƬ֮
ĶԱȡԴˣһЩ飬Ϊ˿˶
ˣץס˼ҵһЩ󲻷šԴˣ߲ҹͬ

ǣǮǰýǷǮشһ¶
ӵôôݲҲա

ΪǮǰûܵýʵǵȫۣ󣬸
һʵǡȫĸǹ۶˵ŸҪѵҲҪۡ
ȴȥǺڿѧϽϹˮƽѾˣҪ
ŶĿȥɢ𣿶Щ
ϺʵʵΪйѧķչ춨
һõĴ󻷾һʵǵĺг󻷾

ʵȫ۵ļֵڴˣѧʵǵҵһѧ
ҪľǿһʵҵеĹףΪſԺѧҵ
ͼֵۣ

ʵȫǮѧɭôǲò˵һѧң
෴صĴԾ˸ѣΪĶ
֤ʹڼ·ߵøӼᶨߵøԶ

Ǯ̶ܴһѧߣоͨΧƾߵҪĶ
ġũҵѧоȻҲΪ˷۷޴ҵĻо
ġ칦оĳЩ쵼оΪ
٣ʹ19ͳһ͹쵼˼ȣ쵼й
21͡ǮȻ֪оҪԣҲʾǮΪһ
ѧߵǻۡ

ë˵̫ˣΨʵǵĿѧ
ѣˣ

˵It is much easier to advocate ones principle 
than to live up with it ĴԼԭףʵԭѵöࣩë
ĺΪǵûƶʵǣ෴ԼĶΪ
ɵġıߡΡ·߶жԱȽʵ
ͬ־Ͽϵ춨˽ʢеߣһ
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̵ʷԭ򡣶ЩºƶٵߣҲ޷Ǹʷϵʧ
ܼһϵԵʡ

ʵȫһѧҶãʵ
ë󶫵ʷĹִʷ

ʵʷʷ඼Խ
ʵʵǵĿѧȡʵǵĿѧʩ

ʵȷǮѧɭĿѧ壡

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Ǯѧɭ20ʴи

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ȣΪʷۣһˡǡ񡱣ƺ
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˵ǮĹףǮڻĳɾͻ顰
ĹסǣǶȣôأ϶ǡʹͬһй
̨ǰҲδΪġǣǵǮҲ
Ǹ˺ΰˡ㲻ŵĻԼȥܷǮһ룿

˶죬൱ԵĶΪ͹۵ĺ׼Ҳ
Դһˡƺйʷ۵ʣطǡǡ
йʷ۵ëȻҲóǮǿҵĳɼû
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ΣڶԴǮйءĶ֤͡칦ܡ֧ϡ
ʼձ̬ȣǮʧֵʱ򰡣һЦ

ǸˣǸĳȡù޴ɾ͵ˣǸϾǿ
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ȻΪһӰˣ˵Ҫǣ۾ã
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ףʤܿܣܷ

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(XYS20091106)

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(XYS20091106)

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(XYS20091106)

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⣬ܶ˶뵽Ϊ08ҹԱԲοϵν
1600ˮУ1000ƶ˿ڡҲһı塣
ҷίˮйزŸͬ־˶ԺǷα
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Ѿȫձʵ֤˵ʵҲĿǰϹк
ƶҪ;£ߵ˵Ҫ
ҥҹˮ翪ôһǶҹִȱ
Ρ

ڲɷ˽⵽ˮ繤֮Եõٵطԭ
Ҫˮ罨ͶʶԵGDPԼ˰պͲӶ
кܴġơáڴССĿ˵Դ
ԴԼеŴܹۺ׵ػȡ־޴
ձȻȺ͹Ȩڲ˵ķ񿪷Ϊ

йߵ˵Ȼһʵҹˮ
ĿҵǹжҵʲôѬĵĿ̡ˣ
Ĺжҵ˵νԴԴԼе
ܹۺ׵ػȡ˵һ޻̸֮ڡ
޴ձȻȺ͹Ȩڲ˵ķ񿪷Ϊ
˵͸е۾˵Ϲ磬ҹŭˮ磬ȻȺڼ
е쿪ǣĿǰѾ67꣬ȻûнʵʵĿ
ʣû67񶼲ܰڿġ񿪷Ϊ
Щʵ˵ߡȺ͹Ȩڲ˵ķ񿪷
Ϊָ𣬲Ƕҹˮ翪һѡ 

ѽ˼·ĿͶԼ͵ط
˰ձϣܸ⡣̵ȻҪ׷󻯣
ĲάֱճĿ֧⣬жǮֱʧڵ
أ

ߵֵģһֽҥԻ֮ϵΣʵ
ǸҪۣ֮Ϊȫйˮ翪ƶʵ
Ѿ֤һСʡĲάֱճĿ֧⣬
ǮֱʧڵأļߣƺҪߴֻ
ǵġ˰ġҪҥ
ߣĿǰȫֻйȷĹ涨ˮĲ
֮⣬Ҫⲹÿÿ600Ԫںڷ֡ѵ⻹ܲ
ΪܱˮΣ𣿡

ϵӴ塢ߴ塢ƽƴǸ20ȥˣ
ЩׯһƶʹͿӰһ
˵ķչ

ϣй巢չĲƽ⣬ҹܶũˮƽǳ
ƶʵпȴС20ȥˣڶЩׯһ
ƶʹͿӰһ˵ķչڣ
ǣˮ翪ܹƶİƶʵȴǲġԱŭ
ܶδǱڵˮӴ塢ߴ塢ƽƴ
ڵѾ˼ߡҪˣʷͳѾˮ
޽ǰӴ塢ߴ塢ƽƴȴӵƽ룬ֻжԪ
ÿǽܵĶˮڷֲѾﵽÿÿ600Ԫ
ŭͺܶδǱڵˮƶʵӦø
ƶˮ翪Ӱһ˵ķչ 

ũũΪũغ͸صľӪ߻ߣгõĻ
£ǵͶĻȨܵõӦеĳϺأڲͬ
Ĳвܻ뷢չȨôӸϽˮԽȺ
Խƶ⣬Ҳһջ

ߵ˵˵ȫһֶҹɿӦ
˵ҹӸϽˮԽȺھԽƶ⣬Ҳһ
ĵȫǶġΪνˮԽȺھԽƶ⡱ʼ
վһջһٻΪĹңҹˮ翪ĵȺڵ
ͶĻȨܵõӦеĳϺءǾ
ģңҲǾԲֵܳġֻǵȴֹܷ
һЩߵĶҥ

ƶͷչõĿں£ڲƵгû£ǿȺ
ͨȨʱĻȨ֧ȨʹԼ󻯣յƶ
᲻ʵϵǱΪˮ翪ƶס

Ͽߵ˵ƺǳСǣ
˽йʵ˶ܷϣҵľѺũ֧ԮеĴ
룬ڼƻʱҿˮĲͨȽϵ͡ĸ￪
йˮܻݳ̶ȣѾĳ˼ƻµˣ
߲ʵ˵ǿȺͨȨʱĻȨ֧Ȩʹ
󻯣յƶ᲻ʵϵǱΪˮ
ƶס˵ǶǸĸ￪źˮ翪Ķ񶾹
⣬ǻҪ߼ߣǿġƶͷչõ
ں£ڲƵгû¡ıԹҲǳûˮƽϹ
еı͸¶йˮȫɹĵ䷶Ϊ
ܶרձ鶼ˮϣִΪԶԶҪ
ĳνȫгĲҪҪ֪гҲƶ
᲻ʵϵ󡱵鵤ҩ

ᷢչǶž÷չʺ;ĸ㣬
ЩΪˮ翪׵ȴȻ±ƶϿ
ǲòȥ˼Ӽƻʱڵгʱٵѧչʱڣ
Ҫߣߵ޸ĺβܽᷢչĲ
ӿѧҲⲻǺҪйزȥӲԽ

ʣȷʵֵ˼ ǲܷг
һ־ãᷢչǶž÷չ
;ĸ㣬ЩΪˮ翪׵ȴȻ±
ƶϿȷʵĳ̶ֳϴڣңҪ
ᷢչǶž÷չʺ;ĸ㡱ǵ
ҲкܶûˮԴˮԴûܵõƶȺ壬
òƶϿȻˮ翪ƶԭ򣬶
ǡǡǽƶЧ;ϵǰҹеˮ񣬶ÿ
ÿ600ԪĶⲹʵ˵ҹӦþˮ翪һЩ
ˮԴƶ⣬ӦøָΣ
ˮ翪

⣬ҪѼߵǣӼƻʱڵгʱٵѧ
չʱڣǲҪ˼ߡҪ˼ôڼٿ
ѧչͬʱĹͬԣǲܴϽľ÷չ
ʵֹͬԣ֮ìܣôǵġߵ޸ĺơ
νᷢչĲԼǵˮ翪εġӿѧҲ
ܽƶӴìܡӦóˮ翪ֻ
һܹƸľûȲܳԽǵƶȣҲ
ȡǵƸĸ

֮ǧҪذѽĳЩ䲻Ƹˮ翪
ˣʷĽѵѽǣܴ㹻Ƹٺ
ķƶҲֻǹͬƶˣһЩĿǰƶϴڵ
ĳȱݣϧñҥԵķʽҹ÷չҪˮ翪
һּ޴ѡ񡣿Ŀǰⲻȫֻйˮ翪
ܷƶãֻйٷĳЩֽͼߣˮ翪
ƶĳ

(XYS20091106)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

У̲ĳʱ

ߣϱ

1999ʵʩУмƻУУУ
ĳǰķչйͳݱ2007ȫ
У̲33525֣³13571֣ӡ26868ᣬֱ
10.32%14.88%8.98%ǰ1999ȷֱ335%363%
173%ȻһƬپı󣬸У̲ձڵˮƽظ桢ƴ
ճϮ⡣

ԡеƻ̲ΪԹͼݵĹݲĿ¼мһ
ļͳƳ2006~2008ȫ桶еƻߵѧУ
114֣200626֣200746֣200842֡бְ
רߴ72֣ʮһ塱Ҽ滮̲16֡ĿƷ棬Ըߵѧ
Уѧרҵ14źĿν̲֮һġѧΪԹͼݹݲĿ¼м
ͳƳ2006~2008ȫͬУ̲40֣200613֣
200717֣200810֡бʮһ塱滮̲5֡ʱ
֣г浥λеҵ磩3ڹ浥һͬУ̲Ĵ16
֮ࡣЩ̲ͬĵҪԿ̲ĵĽṹϵͬС졣
ڵл֣еαĸУ̲ͬʱʱֱ
ڲͬĳ棬Խֻ̲޸Ļ洦

У̲˸߲̲ĵȴǡ̳Сࡢ٣Ϯƴ
Ϊձ顣һλ̲ı༭ԣΪд̲ļȲҪоҲ
飬òϣҲض࿴ֻҪ
еĽ̿飬ϵ΢Ķ½˳Щ
һµĽ̲ľ͡ˮ桯дĽ̲ĲȨ⣬ѧ
֪ʶҲ֮ӱ༭濴浥λ༭̵ġơѾ
ʵԽֻ̲ʽϵļӹݵİѹغȨ
顣

ŵˮƽظķģУ̲ĵƷƽӡ͡
йͼ͡ййͳּ֣1999굥
У̲ĵƽӡΪ12756ᣬ2006½8112ᣬ2007½8014
ᡣ

ĿǰУ̲ĳԭǶ෽ģзƻԭҲ
ƺͽƵԭ

ԭһ̲ߺͳ浥λʶһ棬ߺ
߰ȨʶԭƷȨǰҹɽկϣ
԰Ȩڵ֪ʶȨӺַѾճķ档
Уʦڱд̲ʱַ˵Ȩʹ
ñ˵ƷݡָЩʱɣһЩԭ
֪ʶǰ˵ĳɹͬǺʹãڡοס
г˱οǰ߰ʹ˶֪ʶԭԭԱ
ɼ̳ǰ˵֪ʶɹΪֻҪע˻ǡࡱͿʹ
ɹ浥λΪǰ棬Ȩ顣һ棬
ҹȨ涨ԼͨĳͬԼƷȨߣ
ֻӵһ޵רгȨֻҪȫ帴ƻ棬Ƕѳ
ƷݵĳϮʹãһ׷ΡΪԭ
ֺҲԸȥΪ޷ԤڵЧɡһ֪ʶ
ȨȱЧĻȻͺѴԭƷһ棬̲
ͳԭ浥λǩרгͬͬһߵͬ
ʵڲͬ浥λͬʱ档һĿǰҹͼ
߾ǩרгͬרг޶ΪϡЩ
Ϊĳһнϸߵ֪Ⱥѧλ̲ĳ̷׷׵Լ壬
Դ߳ѧλ͸رĿҲռͬݲͬϵ
̲ĵλá浥λһڶ֪ߵһ㲻ֹ
ΪһΪгǻͬһѳ
ͬʵƵĽ̲ġͳûԭ浥λֹ֮ͬǰ
ͬ浥λظ档

ԭ󣬾ƷҹĿǰųƸĸ
ƽ׶Σ浥λǸУδΪϵг
塣У糤һֱǸУһ̸ţУ䶨λΪ
УĽѧͿйѧУ׼רͽ̲ѡ⣬簴ƻ
档ƵԼ湤ձȱƷʶͳԶʶȱƳ
֮Ķֻ׷Ч档

ԭУѧʸƶȺͿýѧģʽסصԺУʦ
ְƿĿºѧרǲǱ¼
ͨԺУǸְרԺУʦԽѧΪпгɹд
ľͳΪЩԺУʦְҪɹͨԺУʦд̲ĵ
ͬʱҹĸߵѧУ̲ǽѧĻݣ
УʦںҪѧյݣҲǿԵݣĳһΨһָ
̲֮ڣ̲ĵѡονʦϵ쵼ΪʹߵѧԽ̲
ûѡȨʦ˻򱾵λ쵼ͬαĳĿ̲ģ
νʦһ򱻶ѡʹô˽̲ģ۸ý̲ΡԽ̲ĵ
ѡòǳڶѧ𣬶ǸĳֹԵĿģĽ̲
޷ѡáУģһǧ˵ԺУ
ȱȽǣһԺУһרҵѧǧԺУȫ
ԲҲЩרҵѧָίԱ֯д̲ģһж
ԺУĽʦдд̲ĵԺУһѡΪѧ顣
Ԥڵ̵ȻܾԸԺУѧָίԱĽ̲ѡ
⡣ȻýѧֻʹΨһָ̲ģѡȨڽʦϵ쵼
ʹܴﵽ̵żΪǰ浱ȻԸΪ
ѡṩԴ

ԭģܲڸУ̲ѡ滮׼˴ظѡ⡣
ʮһ塱ڼ乲׼Ҽ滮̲11741֣9716֣2025
֣ڽġͨߵȽʮһ塱Ҽ̲Ĺ滮ѡ
ԡ̲ơΪؼʽ򣬿Է֣ͬһѡظ׼ʮֵ
ȱȽǣͬһڲͬ걨ͬѡͬʱ׼Ҳ
ЩͬѡΪˡӦͬΡͬԺУ걨
ͨߵȽʮһ塯Ҽ̲Ĺ滮ѡ֪ͨӱڹ
ͼվĽͬһκͬһԺУͬѡͬʱ׼
ֹҼ滮̲ĵ󲢲ټĿǰ⣬ʡеĽܲ
ҲУ̲ĵѡ滮

У̲ĳĸ;ڽ̲ĵĳʹûڽƽ
г¼棺

һƷƽ裬ǿ֪ʶȨĿǰ֪ʶȨ
Ӻַ淺ĵľ棬ýӦǿͽ
֪ʶȨգÿ426գΪй֪ʶȨգ
֪ʶȨܻ£ƶʵʩǿҪų浥λý
Ϻ͹֪ʶȨ⣬дУ̲ļһϵĴ
Ҳʹ֪ʶĻһѧˣУʦд
У̲ģܡȨԼ⣬Ӧѧ淶ԼĿǰѧ
Žֹʵܲƶ棬2009
3·ġദߵѧУѧΪ֪ͨĻϣ
ƶߵѧУѧΪ鴦԰̲ĳϮȨڵ
УѧΪĵʹĹ涨רŻʵʩ

ĸƣг塣ӿƽƸĸгϵ
γгĳ澺塣ĿǰȫƽųƸĸ
ڴ˲׸

淶ýѧγʤ̭Ľ̲ѡûơУʦڿ
ýѧָָϸԼдĽ̲ڿκͿԣʹԼ
дαĽ̲ģӦΪһȨѰΪԣУܲӦƶ
Ӧ涨ϸΪʦƼԼдĽ̲ģӦָ
ʹûָѧʹá

ġתְܣڸУ̲ıдͳУܲӦΪ
Ϊʡнܲԡʮ塱ȡУ̲Ĺ滮
ͳ͹滮У̲ӦʱΪУ̲ĽҪĹסĿǰ
ҹߵȽгѵõַչУ̲Сѧ̲Ĳͬѡ
ѲУ̲ĵıдͳҲûΪһ
ƷͨӦ𲽽г֯ų浥λתΪȫ
طƻĲƣΪ̲ĲƷߵĽʦͳ浥λ
ԼΪ̲ĲƷߵѧɵľгȫʤ̭ѡ
񡣽ܲźڸУ̲Ľ跽ӦõģǴһ
͸ľһרŻ԰̲ĳϮڵ
ѧΪе鴦ĽУѧ취淶Уýѧ
֤ѧУ̲ϵѳ̲ĵ
й󣻣ģڸУԻг֯Ľ̲ģ
滮档

淶У̲ıдͳƽ־ĸУ̲ĳ
г߸УѧˮƽѧϷȨҪҲ
ǹУѧ֪ʶȨʶʹʶҪǡƶųҵ
չ١ҹۺϹĻʵҪ

(XYS20091106)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

gamebugФҽڵǺ

ߣcoubert

Фҽڵȷһfull-timeڣͬʱּκϴѧľѧԺ
Ժfull-time positionĹʡ

ФҽֻҪ֤ôûΥйع涨ںϴѧĹʱ
ҪͿˡ

Фҽڵѧûش⣬ǶʲôʲôϼӴ
ɣʲôФҽڵ븶Фҽڸо˺ܶ࣬˺ܶ࣬
ԴȥϴѧԺְλкܶܶ

Фҽ˺ܶ࣬˺ܶ࣬Υ涨̫Ӧˡ

(XYS20091106)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

־ڶԵĶԲܸ

ߣİ

ڡ֪ܡĴ٣Ҳֱӵˣܼ˿ǰҺ֪͡
ܡУҶоˡ⼸һֱ˿ϼһЩ̳
ʵۣԽԽܵȷԣҸеһЩο

һЩ۵ٷһҵĿ

ԴϴбʵٱܵĲһ˾Ͳܷˡ
һѣܵһevanstondrķ˿ṩܵ½ͣ
ܲĶ˵ԼֻҪ۾ûȥ½β
ۣдظʱ򶼻ûʶиȼ۵ʽšȻ˿
˵ӦǺܽӽʵġ[1]Ҷܵ
һҲ⣬Ͼ˿ǰѾĹʽP&Cĵ6ڣ
ԸϹԣ˵ûP&Cĵʽ˵û
ʵûеڶ·ˡ

˵ġûȥ½βָۡľP&Cĵĵ6ڣһ
ԷΪѡԼɡʦˣԼ򡪼ѧϰľ
Ĳᳬ10ƪȻ1ڣһ7ڣûԼһ
4[2][3][4][5])3õҪ׾Ȼ1ûжܳ
㣬˵ԼǡеоǱѧѧߡ

ܵѡ߱Ƚȡᣬѧ̫棬ҲϹ
ԣһţevanstondrȣ

ܵ֡ƦĽͣʹҶܵƷе˵ľ
ɡܷۡҲУش漸⣺

1[4]ᵽʽ10P&CģֻժҪô֪?
ֻҪָۡļڣҹܵĻشP&CĵҪ½
ˣ6ʵ棬û

2ʽ10P&Cĵĵ4ڣƦҲܷԼP&Cĵĵ4ڰɣ
һڿP&CĵĺŶҹܵĻشP&Cĵĵ4Ƕģ
֪ʽ10P&CҲУ

3P&Cĵĵ4м䣬Ĺʽ[5]һλin certain cases 
where we have nearly duplicate networks ... which will make the 
inversion process very unstable and our estimate of C^-1 will be 
unreliable. In these cases,we can use heuristic techniques to 
sub-sample thepopulation F to assure that C has full rank(see section 
6)ܽǷҹܿɫҪ䣬ڻش벻Ӧ
ǣ4еһûΪֻش̫˼

仰дP&Cĵĵĵ4м䣨ýP&Cĵĺ½ڣĴ
ǡĳЩʱпܴڶԲǿ...ʱǵXXܻ
⣬£ʽ㷨õһɵӼ...
6ڣ̫е˾ƾ仰Ҫָĵ6ȥϸڣ
Ӧ˭֤ѡԼɣMBTA˭ѡԼɵĿ㷨

ܼܷǵǣ

1²ۣ

2ҽѵĽڲҪ׷ŵϡ

3ҪԳԲ̫ܣζų׳֣
ǱֳĬҪٽνĽƱ磬ΪֻʹǵƷ
ߡ

⣬м۵Ҳͬtrapaһ£

1˵ϾʹҲǳidea,ǻǶ˱˵Ķ
㶫ġ˵ideaֱӳҪЩ

ҲΪΪֱӳֵֻΪֳͨﵽ
ĿģҵȣûжͲ̫ܽ˵Ķռ
УҲǽöѡideaڶ˱˵ĶͷΪԼ
ĹףֱռΪĿģճ½ڸɳܣϾѧհ䲼ѧ淶Ҳ
֧ҵеΪ ֹռԡϮΪһ
˵ѧ۵㡢˼롢ɹðΪԼ...ռڳϮ֮ǰ
ܵΪǡ˵ѧ۵㡢˼롢ɹðΪԼҲ
˵ĳideað취ҪƸġĹѵڲͬ

⣬trapaҲ֪ܲideaNƪģȻ
˽ࡢ03ǰܵľ֪ûMBTAûIJCAI
ļAIJĸã03ʱ̫ƽˣ

Ϊأ٣ҷĳϮ
֮޲

2˵¶ڹڲʲôӰ졣ϣԺϽ㣬
Ͼݵλһ

ҶΪܵȷԣȻԸԼĴ
ѧԹǰԼļ˼ѣЩܵӰ
컹ٵѧУ棬⡰MBTA˭֤
ģѵֳܱĬܲԡѧʵˡԾӣ
˵ĴǼġ

Ϊ¶ڹҲкܴӰ족

[1] 
http://203.208.39.132/search?q=cache:OfAWZJ-RGwAJ:www.mitbbs.com/artic
le_t/CS/31173575.html+%E5%91%A8%E5%BF%97%E5%8D%8E+%E5%89%BD%E7%AA%83&h
l=zh-CN&gl=cn&st_usg=ALhdy2_4GrH3x034hVCdA3vmHHfV0mHciQ&newwindow=1&st
rip=1
[2] Z-H Zhou, J-X Wu, Y. Jiang and S-F Chen, Genetic Algorithm based 
Selective Neural Network Ensemble, IJCAI01, pp. 797-802
[3] Z-H Zhou, J Wu, and W. Tang. Ensembling Neural Networks: Many 
could be Better than All, AIJ 2002, 137(1-2):239-263.
[4] ⽨Σ־ѧǬһѡ缯ɹ췽
о뷢չ2000꣬9ڣ1039-1044
[5] Z-H Zhou, J-X Wu, W. Tang, Z-Q Chen, Combing regression estimators: 
GA-based selectively neural network ensemble. International Journal of
Computational Intelligence and Applications, 2001, 1(4): 341-356.

(XYS20091106)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

Ҷ־ڱָԵĿ

ߣHuimin Chen
http://hchen2.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!76203919D10BFD99!3024.entry

My take on Prof. Zhi-hua Zhou's alleged 

From xys, I noticed an ongoing debate on whether Prof. Zhou borrowed 
key ideas from others in his award winning conf. paper and subsequent 
publications related to ensemble learning under the term "many could 
be better than all" for combining weak learners. Some anonymous 
posters @ xys found an earlier paper with quite similar formulation of 
the ensemble method and the MSE analysis for combining multiple 
regressors. Obviously, Prof. Zhou and his coauthors did not cite this 
work in their subsequent publications. I have adequate background to 
understand ensemble learning and did a survey on estimation and 
decision fusion with several colleagues a few years ago including 
various methods for combining classifiers/regressors with guaranteed 
performance improvement. My take on Prof. Zhou's case is as follows.

1. Prof. Zhou and his coauthors were aware of the work by Perrone and 
Cooper and it is very dishonest to ignore its existence in their 
literature review. The extension from optimal weighting on the full 
set of weak learners to the best subset invoking genetic algorithm for 
this combinatorial optimization problem is trivial. The conf. paper 
probably should not get any award and the journal version does not 
deserve to be published.

2. It is hard to tell whether Prof. Zhou intentionally copied some 
materials from Perrone and Cooper's paper as being accused. However, 
Prof. Zhou's response took too much credit for the contributions to 
ensemble learning area for his "many could be better than all" argument. 
For those familiar with Bayesian model averaging, the generalization 
error analysis based on the same assumed statistical model can be 
derived without reading Perrone and Cooper's paper, so even if Prof. 
Zhou independently came up with the same conclusions as those by 
Perrone and Cooper, I would not be surprised. Even Perrone and 
Cooper's paper is not that influencial in ensemble learning area.

3. It seems that Prof. Zhou later became famous in machine learning 
area (maybe only within China) and he does not want to tolerate any 
different opinion regarding the quality of his publications. From his 
writing, I can hardly tell that he is a decent and modest researcher. 
Even after many years and with the title of Cheung Kong professor, he 
fails to prove himeself in any significant work along ensemble 
learning or other machine learning areas. So I have to give benefit of 
doubt that his achievement has been exaggerated.

(XYS20091106)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

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װɣοײһЩ⣬ļֵֺأ

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˵û˸ǸĻѧӦѧΪԼѧ߸
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ĿֹĵڶƻصĿһǰ
ΪĿûеõκλӦҵ뷨ȷʵ棬˭
Ը뵽ֵĹƻصĿٻȥأѧ
˻ȥ֮е

(XYS20091106)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys4.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ӭտڡ߽ѧݵ

ߣFreedom

׷βºݣǾƺݳڼӭտڡ
ѧݵܡԵ˵˵Ϊ齲


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http://ent.qq.com/a/20091106/000054.htm
112ӡ߽ѧݳڱü԰
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ǰ˴ʦ,ڵֳԸ
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(XYS20091106)

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